Half PPR Rankings: RB

McCaffrey was the consensus RB1 and first fantasy pick from 2019 to 2021, but injuries in 2020 and 2021 left his ranking up for review after two dud years. That didn't last long. Not only has McCaffrey's health cooperated the last two years, he now has the privilege of playing in a top-three offense. Even with sky-high usage the last two years (516 carries, 152 receptions), McCaffrey's efficiency was at/near a league-leading level (5.0 yards per carry, 6.8 yards per target). Volume is normally a slight downward pressure on efficiency – the more a defense expects you, the better they tend to defend you – but McCaffrey has been unstoppable in San Francisco no matter how aggressively opponents try to slow him. While his previous injury troubles raise the understandable fear of similar problems occurring in the future, McCaffrey's overall track record of availability (79 percent of possible games) is about normal for a heavily used RB. Rather than fretting over McCaffrey's past injuries, the more useful frame would be to consider that injuries are likely the only way for any other running back to catch him in the fantasy rankings. That's a statement that would apply to very few running backs throughout history, as a talent like McCaffrey in a scheme like San Francisco's yields an almost perfect projection.

Hall's career has largely been defined by starts and stops due to his 2022 ACL tear and the constant shenanigans of the Jets offense. Even so, the verdict is clear: Hall is a star. His combination of speed, power, vision and receiving ability make him capable of finishing as the top fantasy running back multiple times before his career concludes. When entertaining upside scenarios, it's difficult to rule anything out. He's averaged 4.8 YPC to this point in his career and appears capable of leading the league in rushing, yet his 76 receptions from 2023 imply he can also lead NFL running backs in receiving production. Perhaps both in the same season is on the table? Hall should be in much better circumstances this year, assuming 40-year-old QB Aaron Rodgers isn't totally cooked after suffering an Achilles' tear last season. The Jets improved the rest of their offense this offseason, signing LT Tyron Smith and WR Mike Williams, trading for RT Morgan Moses and then drafting OT Ola Fashanu (first round) and WR Malachi Corley (third round). They've now got both depth and high-end talent along the offensive line, a unit that was hard-hit by injuries last year and ultimately had 10 players top 200 snaps. With a better team around him and another year removed from the ACL tear, Hall may be headed for a truly special season.

Tyler Allgeier is a good running back, but it wasn't reasonable for Robinson to only see 214 carries to Allgeier's 186 carries last season. Atlanta team ownership presumably agreed, because previous head coach Arthur Smith was fired and the new coach Raheem Morris likely has an understanding that Robinson's inconsistent 2023 usage was a big reason Smith was fired. If Robinson's rushing workload increases then it could hold explosive results for his fantasy value, especially with Kirk Cousins arriving at quarterback. Robinson is already one of the league's better pass catchers at running back (86 targets last year) yet his efficiency numbers were badly dragged down by Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. Robinson will likely improve on the 67.4 percent catch rate and 5.8 yards per target figure he had last year, and if that occurs at the same time as a rushing production surge then Robinson would have a clear path to finish the 2024 season not just as a fantasy RB1 in general, but maybe even the top fantasy back in the entire NFL.

Taylor's 2023 season was a bit of a circus at first, and there might have been a little rust as a result of the holdout/lockout/injury feud that kept him out of training camp and the first four weeks of the season. Once he settled in and got rolling, Taylor reestablished himself as one of the NFL's top backs, running for 704 yards and seven touchdowns on 155 carries (4.5 YPC) over his final eight games. The rushing average was a bit low by his standards – Taylor averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry in his first two NFL seasons – but overall it was a strong showing in a mediocre offense. Fellow running back Zack Moss then left for Cincinnati in free agency, setting up Taylor to handle a larger share of the Colts' backfield work in 2024, though QB Anthony Richardson figures to get a lot of the goal-line carries. While Taylor will always be known as a run-first RB, the departure of Moss combined with the three-year, $42 million extension Taylor signed last fall gives the Colts good reason to keep him on the field for a lot of passing downs. The ankle troubles of previous years left Taylor alone in 2023 – it was a thumb injury that cost him Weeks 13 through 15 – and the Colts' lack of investment in RB depth hints at confidence he can carry the load this year.

Williams will be an interesting case study after his improbable 2023 breakout season, one where he ran for nearly 100 yards per game while scoring 15 touchdowns (12 rushing, three receiving) in just 12 games. Coach Sean McVay values Williams' pass-blocking abilities to the point that the RB almost never left the field last year, playing an average of 55 snaps per game. It's an incredibly heavy workload for a running back, especially one listed at 5-9, 195. In other words, it feels like Williams' best season might have already occurred. Not just because his stats are due for general regression, but because Williams is one of the smaller starting RBs and has already had trouble holding up physically. The 2022 fifth-round pick missed much of his rookie offseason due to a broken foot and then suffered a high-ankle sprain Week 1 on special teams, ultimately finishing the season with 44 touches in 10 games. Last year, Williams quickly earned a starring role but later missed five weeks (four games) with another ankle injury. There's a reason you don't see 195-pound backs taking 20 carries per game in the NFL, and the Rams may have doubts of their own given that they used a third-round pick on RB Blake Corum this April. Corum's involvement in the offense would lower Williams' fantasy ceiling but increase his odds of staying healthy -- a poor trade-off short term but perhaps beneficial in the long run.