This article is part of our On Target series.
Overall Targets
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PLAYER | TARGETS | REC | YARDS | TD |
---|---|---|---|---|
Julio Jones | 168 | 109 | 1426 | 6 |
DeAndre Hopkins | 158 | 89 | 1222 | 10 |
Antonio Brown | 147 | 100 | 1397 | 7 |
Demaryius Thomas | 144 | 88 | 1067 | 3 |
Odell Beckham | 143 | 85 | 1324 | 12 |
Brandon Marshall | 140 | 89 | 1187 | 11 |
Jarvis Landry | 135 | 90 | 922 | 4 |
Larry Fitzgerald | 129 | 96 | 1088 | 7 |
Allen Robinson | 129 | 67 | 1088 | 12 |
Calvin Johnson | 123 | 71 | 981 | 7 |
Michael Crabtree | 120 | 70 | 779 | 7 |
T.Y. Hilton | 115 | 58 | 987 | 5 |
A.J. Green | 114 | 75 | 1133 | 8 |
Mike Evans | 114 | 57 | 894 |
Overall Targets
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Red-Zone Touchdown Percentage
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We have to talk about the insane run that Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin are on. Wilson is finishing the first month in NFL history in which a quarterback has posted a passer rating of at least 135 in each game, and Baldwin has been a huge part of that ascendence. Sharp football people have always thought Baldwin was a little limited by the run-heavy offense the Seahawks use. With Marshawn Lynch injured, the Seahawks have turned more to a passing offense. Baldwin has seven (!!!!!) touchdowns over his last three games and while that pace probably won't hold, he gets another cake matchup this week that will allow him to run just about as free as a wide receiver can. I think more importantly, we have learned that when Russ is allowed to play with the reins off, special things can happen. I'm personally treated Baldwin as a high-end WR for this season and next and think that the ceiling will remain similar as long as Wilson keeps playing this well. If you were fortunate enough to snag him off the waiver wire before this explosion, you have found a player who can lead you to fantasy titles this season.
Demaryius Thomas has not been playing well. The entire Denver Broncos offense has performed sub-optimally for quite some time, essentially the entire year. There have been a few breath-taking plays from Demaryius where he catches the ball short and creates in the open field, but he has failed consistently at the things that are supposed to be his bread and butter (9 routes and option routes in the end zone). I am of the opinion that DT is finally in a perfect spot this week to breakout against the awful Steelers defense that has struggled against top WRs all season. The targets have been there for Thomas, but he is scoring way below his career ratio of TDs to targets. Most wide receiver scoring can be defined by red-zone targets, and DT has only 14 this year after getting 39 in 16 games last season. But more important, he is not converting his red-zone looks. He has always done well at converting RZ targets in the past, and I don't believe he has lost an huge element of skill. Therefore, Thomas can be called a "touchdown regression" candidate, which essentially means that sooner rather than later, his red-zone targets are going to start turning into touchdowns.
Somehow, Jordan Reed's season is not being discussed quite enough. He's in the top 100 of total fantasy scorers and sixth at the position in standard scoring despite leaving several games early with injury. The injury part of Reed's game will always leave him undervalued and underrated, but when he is on the field, he's one of the best move tight ends in the game. He actually leads the NFL in market share of RZ targets for his team, receiving 31 percent of Washington's red-zone targets, but has only scored seven touchdowns, which suggests he has even more room to score fantasy points. Despite the cast around him changing (DeSean Jackson has been in and out of the lineup, the team has changed running backs multiple times), Reed's game-to-game target volume has stayed consistent. He was a steal in drafts all offseason and remains underpriced relative to his offensive involvement in DFS. Next year, I think we have to treat Reed like a top-5 option at the position.