This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Hockey series.
Sunday evening's NHL slate consists of just three games, with only two of the six teams in action ranking among the top 18 in goals per game. There's still plenty of fantasy value to be found if you know where to look, especially with three of the five most generous penalty killing units available to exploit. Power-play production is a major theme in this edition of Sunday's top value plays, but it's just one of many influential factors.
GOALIE
Anders Nilsson, BUF at ARI ($29): Nilsson's average of 13.0 fantasy points per game is greater than all available alternatives except Craig Anderson, yet he carries a middle of the pack price tag at just $29. Sustaining his strong production shouldn't be a problem for the Swedish backup against a Coyotes team that has mustered just 2.33 goals per game. This combination of matchup and ability is much too good to pass up at this price.
Goalie to Avoid
Craig Anderson, OTT at FLA ($30): Anderson is a bit underpriced relative to his production and is facing the 21st-ranked Panthers offense, so what's the problem? Unfortunately, Florida isn't the cupcake matchup it was for much of this season, as the return of injured skill players has propelled the Panthers to 38 goals and seven wins in the past 10 games. Anderson's strong form this season still gives him plenty of potential here, but the risk is greater than many realize.
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CENTER
Ryan O'Reilly, BUF at ARI ($20): Louis Domingue is likely to start in net for the Coyotes, as Mike Smith is battling an illness. Domingue's 3.38 GAA and .893 save percentage in 23 appearances suggest the Sabres will likely have a successful night offensively, and O'Reilly is primed to lead that charge after tallying 20 points in his last 23 games heading into the weekend. The league leader in ice time for a forward plays in all situations, and will have the opportunity to attack the Coyotes from the first line at even strength while also exploiting their 26th-ranked penalty kill as the center on the top power-play unit.
Center to Avoid
Nick Schmaltz, CHI vs. STL ($17): Schmaltz has nine points in the past seven games, but there's little reason to believe the rookie is going to keep that strong play up. He has just seven points in 35 other appearances, and has contributed only one power-play point all season. Plus, St. Louis will make life tough for all Chicago skaters after allowing just 16 goals in 10 games since Mike Yeo replaced Ken Hitchcock as the coach.
WING
Ryan Dzingel, OTT at FLA ($12): While right wing Mark Stone (neck) might be ready to suit up for this one, Dzingel is expected to maintain his spot as the top line left wing with Mike Hoffman (groin) still out. The minimum-priced forward has accrued 26 of his 29 points at even strength, which mean Florida's third-ranked penalty kill won't have much of a negative impact on his value relative to some of his teammates. Dzingel won't hold on to this valuable first-line role for long with Hoffman day-to-day, so take advantage of this bump in playing time and surrounding skill while you still can.
Radim Vrbata, ARI vs. BUF ($15): Vrbata comes into this contest on an eight-game point streak, and is in the best position of any Arizona forward to exploit the 29th-ranked Sabres penalty kill given that his 13 power-play points rank second on the team to blueliner Oliver Ekman-Larsson, while no other Coyote has more than eight. Vrbata's season of average of 6.5 fantasy points per game is superior to every winger priced under $18, suggesting he is slightly undervalued relative to his production this season. Given his combination of plus matchup and affordability, the veteran Czech offers strong bang for the buck despite playing for an underwhelming team.
Wings to Avoid
Jaden Schwartz, STL at CHI ($37): Schwartz's production comes mostly at even strength, with just five of his 37 points occurring with the man advantage. That distribution is far from ideal for this matchup with a Blackhawks team that has dominated at five-on-five while struggling to stop opposing power plays. His declining usage also serves as a limiting factor, as Schwartz has come up short of 18 minutes in seven of the past eight games, dragging his average on the season down to 18:44.
Ryan Hartman, CHI vs. STL ($15): Hartman continues to be overpriced given his lack of playing time. He has come up short of 13 minutes in nine consecutive games, and his production will start to wane in a hurry once his 19.2 percent shooting percentage declines to something closer to his career rate of 10.9 percent. That descent is likely to begin against a Blues defense that has been among the league's best since their coaching change.
DEFENSE
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, ARI vs. BUF ($15): Ekman-Larsson's strength is his power-play production. Seventeen of the Swede's 33 points have come with the extra man, and he has 29 power-play goals since the start of the 2014-15 campaign, including seven this season. This matchup against a Sabres penalty kill that has stopped just 75.1 percent of opposition opportunities presents a perfect time to use Ekman-Larsson, whose offensive ability belies his affordable $15 price.
Kevin Shattenkirk, STL at CHI ($19): Shattenkirk is another power-play maven facing a vulnerable penalty kill. His 20 points with the extra man are just one back of Victor Hedman for the league lead among blueliners, while Shattenkirk's seven goals in such situations are tied with Ekman-Larsson for second behind Shea Weber. Adding to those totals won't be difficult against the league's third worst shorthanded unit, especially since the offensive-minded blueliner has already compiled three power-play points in four previous meetings with the Blackhawks.
Defensemen to Avoid
Erik Karlsson, OTT at FLA ($29): Nineteen of Karlsson's 52 points have come on the power play, but that aspect of his game is likely to be limited by a Panthers penalty kill that has operated with an 85.3 percent success rate. Considering he costs $7 more than the next most expensive option at his position, it's tough to justify using the Swede in tough matchups like this one. That money is best invested elsewhere, especially with three other teams having the benefit of facing penalty killing units that have allowed goals on at least 22.5 percent of power-play opportunities.
Aaron Ekblad, FLA vs. OTT ($18): Ekblad is unlikely to add to his 19 points against Anderson and his 2.37 GAA, and his minus-21 rating remains very much in play as a negative factor. Ekblad's minus-3 over the past 10 games despite Florida's recent offensive surge, so don't count on him improving in that regard anytime soon.
