You may have noticed: quite a lot has been happening in NFL free agency! There figure to be a few more things to shake out during free agency, but we probably have enough details sorted out to start assessing the damage. This subject will need a series of articles – at least two editions – given the volume of events, but we'll try to take down the biggest birds with the stones we have at the moment. Check in tomorrow for evaluations of signings like Paul Richardson, Jordy Nelson, Michael Crabtree, etc.
Instead of addressing the signings by position, we'll take inventory by an ostensible descending order of headline significance. I can't get to everything in this one, but we'll see to it in the upcoming few days.
Kirk Cousins to Minnesota
Cousins made waves not just for the huge sum of his contract, but especially the fact that it's fully guaranteed. With the rate of inflation at quarterback comparable to the yearly increases in the salary cap, it's difficult to argue that Minnesota's decision was anything but sensible, unprecedented as their methods might be for the moment. For a team with as much talent and depth as Minnesota, they don't need Cousins to be a world beater to win a Super Bowl. At the same time, there wasn't likely to be a comparable quarterback option within their reach before the close of their competitive window. I was once a Cousins skeptic but I believe in him
You may have noticed: quite a lot has been happening in NFL free agency! There figure to be a few more things to shake out during free agency, but we probably have enough details sorted out to start assessing the damage. This subject will need a series of articles – at least two editions – given the volume of events, but we'll try to take down the biggest birds with the stones we have at the moment. Check in tomorrow for evaluations of signings like Paul Richardson, Jordy Nelson, Michael Crabtree, etc.
Instead of addressing the signings by position, we'll take inventory by an ostensible descending order of headline significance. I can't get to everything in this one, but we'll see to it in the upcoming few days.
Kirk Cousins to Minnesota
Cousins made waves not just for the huge sum of his contract, but especially the fact that it's fully guaranteed. With the rate of inflation at quarterback comparable to the yearly increases in the salary cap, it's difficult to argue that Minnesota's decision was anything but sensible, unprecedented as their methods might be for the moment. For a team with as much talent and depth as Minnesota, they don't need Cousins to be a world beater to win a Super Bowl. At the same time, there wasn't likely to be a comparable quarterback option within their reach before the close of their competitive window. I was once a Cousins skeptic but I believe in him fully after watching him succeed despite the mounting dysfunction of the offense around him, especially due to injuries on the offensive line. I'm convinced Cousins lifts the players around him rather than the other way around.
He'll have it much better in Minnesota, and he'll make life better for Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, who get a boost from the clear upgrade Cousins provides over Case Keenum. With former Philadelphia quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo taking over as offensive coordinator and Dalvin Cook returning from his ACL tear, everything is aligning for the Vikings to field a truly strong offense.
Sammy Watkins to Kansas City
Set to earn $48 million over three years, Watkins' contract drew some criticism over the fact that he hasn't yet posted production that would merit such a contract. But if you're in the business of winning, you'll seek to pay for future production rather than past. And when you look at Watkins' full picture, he clearly projects for such production. Talents like him aren't supposed to be free agents, especially at age 24, so you spend in cases like this. His production lagged in Buffalo due to injuries and poor quarterback play, and with the Rams he mostly cleared the safeties so lesser receivers could get open within Jared Goff's limited arm range.
With Pat Mahomes at quarterback, there is zero concern about the quarterback's ability to go deep. Mahomes has a cannon arm and Watkins is always open, so I'm somewhat optimistic about the fit in that sense. Even with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill already present, I'm not especially worried about Watkins' target volume, either. Andy Reid is a distinctly pass-happy coach, and if the group of Albert Wilson, Demarcus Robinson, Chris Conley, and De'Anthony Thomas can combine for over 130 targets, I think Watkins should be a candidate to approach that number himself, especially if Reid keeps running the Chiefs offense the same way it was toward the end of last year, when the Chiefs finally started throwing deep and unleashed Hill in the process.
But that leads to perhaps the greatest concern for Watkins: is there reason to think Reid will run the offense the same way? He wasn't running it at all at the time – he surrendered his playcalling duties to Matt Nagy after orchestrating an uninspiring offense that focused too much on short routes. Nagy provided the clarifying contrast, and as obvious as he made the answer at that point, the fact that Reid didn't see it himself prior to that point means Reid is liable to fall back into his own failed tendencies, rather than successfully imitating the improved blueprint Nagy provided before heading to Chicago. If Watkins and Hill keep going deep, I love them both. If they're just running drags and curls, I worry quite a lot. Do the right thing Andy.
Allen Robinson (three years, $42 million) and Trey Burton (four years, $32 million) to Chicago
Speaking of Nagy, his Bears offense is suddenly loaded. I'm among the apparent few who think Allen Robinson isn't as good as Sammy Watkins, but I love the Robinson signing for Chicago all the same, and probably consider Robinson the better fantasy option between the two due to a preferable landing spot.
Perhaps I'm overly optimistic to consider Chicago a favorable environment, but I think there is more talent here than people might guess – John Fox wasn't helping anyone win – and I'm almost certain that Nagy's arrival is a great sign for Chicago's projected snap volume. Nagy brought in Chip Kelly apprentice Mark Helfrich as offensive coordinator, as well as former Washington State strength and conditioning coach Jason Loscalzo. Why would Nagy make these hires – two coaches fluent in the logistics of the notoriously uptempo offenses of Kelly and Mike Leach – if not for the intention of running a max-tempo scheme himself? I'm convinced that these two are around to run practice and training operations in the pursuit of making the Bears the most well-conditioned offense in the league.
So even if Mitchell Trubisky struggles to find consistency in his second season, I think his pass attempt volume and, thus, the target volume of Robinson and Burton, will prove substantial. With Adam Shaheen handling the in-line tight end role, I think you'll see Burton basically never blocking, instead splitting his snaps between slot receiver and an Aaron Hernandez-like tight end role.
Dion Lewis to Tennessee
Lewis leveraged his New England breakout into a nice contract with the Titans, where former New England assistant Mike Vrabel takes over as head coach. Given his natural inclination toward Belichick-type methods, Vrabel presumably will try to utilize Lewis almost exactly the same as the Patriots did. To me, that means 6-to-10 carries and 2-to-6 catches per game. That Lewis was the lead back for New England down the stretch last year was the result of injuries in the Patriots backfield rather than deliberate design, and I think it's important to keep that in mind when projecting Lewis' future.
That Derrick Henry is already in Tennessee convinces me that, just as in New England, Lewis is meant to be a versatile complementary piece rather than a lead runner. Henry is three years removed from running for 2,219 yards (5.6 YPC) and 28 touchdowns in 15 games for Alabama, and at 6-foot-3, 247 pounds, Henry is actually faster than the 5-foot-8, 195-pound Lewis. Lewis is the better pass catcher of the two, but in terms of running ability this is not a serious contest. Whatever your valuation of Lewis might be going into this year, do not fall for the absurd premise that he's a better pure runner than Henry.
With that said, Lewis' clear superiority as a route runner and his own general adeptness as a runner means he will be involved to a substantial extent, and I'm optimistic that both Lewis and Henry will prove valuable in fantasy, especially in PPR formats in the former's case. That's because I'm extremely optimistic for the Titans offense in general under the direction of recent Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan apprentice Matt LaFleur, who was hired as offense coordinator. His connection to those two coaches gives reason to believe the Titans will run an aggressive and uptempo offense, in sharp contrast to Mike Mularkey.
If LaFleur brings the best out of Marcus Mariota, then the number of snaps logged and points scored by the Tennessee offense has to go up substantially. With enough snaps logged, I think you could see a big enough pie to leave Henry with something like 1,500-1,600 yards and double-digit touchdowns from scrimmage, and Lewis something like 1,000-1,200 yards and eight touchdowns from scrimmage.
Jerick McKinnon to San Francisco
His skill set and build are eerily redundant to those of former Georgia Southern teammate Matt Breida, but that contract (four years, $30 million) and the departure of Carlos Hyde gives reason to think McKinnon will be a foundational piece of Kyle Shanahan's offense this year. That distinction alone is big-time currency in fantasy football – the Garoppolo Show will be one of the universally anticipated aspects of the 2018 season, and anyone along for the ride figures to catch significant hype as fantasy owners understandably try to get shares of what could be one of the league's most explosive offenses.
That McKinnon and Breida both lack leg drive means San Francisco will likely stay on the lookout for a viable power runner, though, and if you buy McKinnon now you should bake that risk into the price you're willing to pay. It's less of a concern in PPR formats, but there's a significant chance that the 49ers acquire someone like Royce Freeman in the draft for red-zone carries.
Carlos Hyde (three years, $15 million) and Tyrod Taylor (trade) to Cleveland
Hyde would have been a realistic RB1 candidate in 12-team leagues if he had stayed in the Kyle Shanahan offense, but in Cleveland's muddled picture he's unlikely to ascend beyond RB2 distinction. Until the Browns make the first and fourth picks in the NFL Draft, though, the specter of Saquon Barkley means even that can't be taken for granted with Hyde. None of this is even to account for Duke Johnson, who should have had a bigger role last year and is likely to block Hyde from seeing the target volume he did in San Francisco.
It could go well for Hyde if Barkley stays away, though, in no small part due to the arrival of Tyrod Taylor. Even if Taylor isn't capable of crashing the top-10 at quarterback, he's already the best quarterback the Browns have had since their 1999 comeback. New GM John Dorsey appears determined to set fire to most of what he inherited, but so long as Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman (or a comparable tandem) are around, Taylor should find himself in a setting much more favorable than what he knew in Buffalo. Todd Haley hasn't worked with a quarterback before, but that Haley is one of the best passing game coordinators in the league gives reason to hope he's smart enough to identify the advantages Taylor provides. Bill O'Brien faced a similar situation with Deshaun Watson, but because he's a smart coach O'Brien was able to figure it out on the fly. Even if all of that turns for the worse, the fact that Taylor is a lethal runner means Hyde should see wider fronts than he did in San Francisco, making it easier to cut through between the tackles.
