This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIKINGS | Bengals | 26.50% | 525 | 84.00% | 4.24 |
| Ravens | BROWNS | 18.50% | 310 | 75.61% | 4.51 |
| SAINTS | Jets | 17.00% | 1275 | 92.73% | 1.24 |
| JAGUARS | Texans | 14.90% | 525 | 84.00% | 2.38 |
| Falcons | BUCCANEERS | 6.50% | 240 | 70.59% | 1.91 |
| LIONS | Bears | 4.10% | 230 | 69.70% | 1.24 |
| PANTHERS | Packers | 3.10% | 140 | 58.33% | 1.29 |
| REDSKINS | Cardinals | 2.00% | 200 | 66.67% | 0.67 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 1.90% | 340 | 77.27% | 0.43 |
| Broncos | COLTS | 1.30% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.57 |
| 49ERS | Titans | 1.00% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.45 |
| Cowboys | RAIDERS | 0.70% | 145 | 59.18% | 0.29 |
| COLTS | Broncos | 0.70% | 77 | 43.50% | 0.40 |
| BILLS | Dolphins | 0.40% | 130*** | 56.52% | 0.18 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** No money line available, so odds created from two-point spread
This week, we have three double-digit favorites, the Vikings, Saints and Jaguars, and no team more than 27 percent owned. Once again, it's less of a pot-odds week than usual, though you should check what your opponents have remaining and make an educated guess about pick distribution in your pool.
My Picks
1. New Orleans Saints
I don't have to explain this one - the Saints at home against the Bryce Petty-led Jets. I give the Saints a 93 percent chance to win this game.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have put Blake Bortles in hitter's counts of late, and
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIKINGS | Bengals | 26.50% | 525 | 84.00% | 4.24 |
| Ravens | BROWNS | 18.50% | 310 | 75.61% | 4.51 |
| SAINTS | Jets | 17.00% | 1275 | 92.73% | 1.24 |
| JAGUARS | Texans | 14.90% | 525 | 84.00% | 2.38 |
| Falcons | BUCCANEERS | 6.50% | 240 | 70.59% | 1.91 |
| LIONS | Bears | 4.10% | 230 | 69.70% | 1.24 |
| PANTHERS | Packers | 3.10% | 140 | 58.33% | 1.29 |
| REDSKINS | Cardinals | 2.00% | 200 | 66.67% | 0.67 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 1.90% | 340 | 77.27% | 0.43 |
| Broncos | COLTS | 1.30% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.57 |
| 49ERS | Titans | 1.00% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.45 |
| Cowboys | RAIDERS | 0.70% | 145 | 59.18% | 0.29 |
| COLTS | Broncos | 0.70% | 77 | 43.50% | 0.40 |
| BILLS | Dolphins | 0.40% | 130*** | 56.52% | 0.18 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** No money line available, so odds created from two-point spread
This week, we have three double-digit favorites, the Vikings, Saints and Jaguars, and no team more than 27 percent owned. Once again, it's less of a pot-odds week than usual, though you should check what your opponents have remaining and make an educated guess about pick distribution in your pool.
My Picks
1. New Orleans Saints
I don't have to explain this one - the Saints at home against the Bryce Petty-led Jets. I give the Saints a 93 percent chance to win this game.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have put Blake Bortles in hitter's counts of late, and Bortles has played well as a result. Leonard Fournette is banged up, but that doesn't move the needle for me against a Texans team that can't run and won't be able to throw against the league's top pass defense. I give the Jaguars an 87 percent chance to win this game.
3. Minnesota Vikings
The Bengals are coming off a terrible game, and they might show up for this one, but the Vikings are disciplined, balanced and unlikely to have a major letdown, especially coming off the loss in Carolina. I give them an 83 percent chance to win this game.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
The loss of Carson Wentz is huge for the Eagles long term, but this week it shouldn't matter much as the Giants are mailing it in with their over-the-hill quarterback, conservative offense and banged-up defense. I give the Eagles a 79 percent chance to win this game.
5. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are tougher at home, and the Browns have some dangerous skill players, but Baltimore's defense is solid, and DeShone Kizer is good for a couple egregious mistakes per game. Moreover, Joe Flacco and the offense have woken up the last two games. I give the Ravens a 75 percent chance to win this game.
6. Atlanta Falcons
This is not a layup in Tampa, but the Falcons are better on both sides of the ball, and the Bucs aren't in sync offensively. I give the Falcons a 72 percent chance to win this game.
7. Washington Redskins
The Redskins got throttled in Los Angeles, but they're a league average team, playing at home and facing the Blaine Gabbert Cardinals. I give them a 69 percent chance to win this game.
8. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are on the road, but they draw a Raiders team that's bad on both sides of the ball. Moreover, Dallas has gotten it together offensively the last couple weeks. I give the Cowboys a 67 percent chance to win this game.
9. Detroit Lions
The Lions should handle the Bears at home, but Detroit has trouble against the run, and the Bears defense has played well at times. I give the Lions a 67 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Carolina Panthers - I don't want to mess with Aaron Rodgers here.
Denver Broncos - I don't like taking the road team on the short week, especially one with Trevor Siemian at quarterback.
