This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week wasn't bad as I went 10-3-1 by conventional scoring, won my best bet, the Seahawks, and went 3-2 in the LVH SuperContest. By my own metric, I was 14-0, calling every game exactly as I saw it, even the Steelers minus 8.5 that didn't remotely pan out in "objective reality."
This week, I especially like the Vikings at home against the Packers. I also like the Redskins at home against the Niners. I struggled on a lot of these, though, and went back and forth on Ravens-Bears, Chiefs-Steelers and Browns-Texans.
I'll post my best bet on Staff Picks (I already know it's the Vikings), and my LVH picks in the comments.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Eagles +3 at Panthers
This is the right line between two of the better teams early on. Usually, I take the home team off the short week, and I think Cam Newton will be able to exploit the Eagles pass defense. Lay the wood.
Panthers 27 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Browns +9.5 at Texans
If the Texans had a healthy defense, I'd lay the wood, but I'm getting a Browns feeling. Deshaun Watson's been great, but he's still a rookie, capable of mistakes. Take the points.
Texans 24 - 17
Patriots -9.5 at Jets
The Jets are the right play per the YTD performance, but the large sample of the Patriots greatness and ability to adjust makes me wary. Lay the points.
Patriots 27 - 16
Dolphins +11 at Falcons
The Dolphins could very
Last week wasn't bad as I went 10-3-1 by conventional scoring, won my best bet, the Seahawks, and went 3-2 in the LVH SuperContest. By my own metric, I was 14-0, calling every game exactly as I saw it, even the Steelers minus 8.5 that didn't remotely pan out in "objective reality."
This week, I especially like the Vikings at home against the Packers. I also like the Redskins at home against the Niners. I struggled on a lot of these, though, and went back and forth on Ravens-Bears, Chiefs-Steelers and Browns-Texans.
I'll post my best bet on Staff Picks (I already know it's the Vikings), and my LVH picks in the comments.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Eagles +3 at Panthers
This is the right line between two of the better teams early on. Usually, I take the home team off the short week, and I think Cam Newton will be able to exploit the Eagles pass defense. Lay the wood.
Panthers 27 - 20
EARLY GAMES
Browns +9.5 at Texans
If the Texans had a healthy defense, I'd lay the wood, but I'm getting a Browns feeling. Deshaun Watson's been great, but he's still a rookie, capable of mistakes. Take the points.
Texans 24 - 17
Patriots -9.5 at Jets
The Jets are the right play per the YTD performance, but the large sample of the Patriots greatness and ability to adjust makes me wary. Lay the points.
Patriots 27 - 16
Dolphins +11 at Falcons
The Dolphins could very well get blown out here, but I'll buy low on the theory they're still figuring it out after the late start to the year and the London game. Take the points.
Falcons 27 - 17
Lions +5 at Saints
These are roughly equal teams. I'll take the Lions getting more than the standard three.
Saints 23 - 20
Packers -3.5 at Vikings
This is probably my best bet. Aaron Rodgers always seems to have trouble in Minnesota, Case Keenum isn't that big of a downgrade from Sam Bradford and Jerick McKinnon isn't a major downgrade from Dalvin Cook. Take the points.
Vikings 20 - 19
Bears +6.5 at Ravens
I was torn on this one, but I'll take the Ravens at home who are likely to force some turnovers and get some cheap points. Lay the wood.
Ravens 23 - 16
49ers +9.5 at Redskins
The Redskins stuffed the Raiders at home and played toe to toe with the Chiefs in Kansas City. The loss of Josh Norman hurts, but the 49ers probably aren't the team to exploit it. Lay the wood.
Redskins 31 - 17
LATE GAMES
Rams +2.5 at Jaguars
It's a good time to sell the Jaguars high off the impressive win in Pittsburgh. The Rams passed the eye test against Seattle, and Blake Bortles is essentially a defensive player at this point. Take the Rams.
Rams 17 - 16
Buccaneers -2.5 at Cardinals
I don't like either of these teams. Jameis Winston is just okay, and the defense is below average. The Cardinals can't run, pass block or cover anyone except the guy Patrick Peterson shuts down. I'll suppose I'll hold my nose and take the points.
Cardinals 24 - 23
Steelers +4.5 at Chiefs
I was wrong on the Steelers last week, and I normally don't take Ben Roethlisberger on the road, but Travis Kelce is in the concussion protocol, and I think Pittsburgh runs more and keeps it close. Take the points.
Chiefs 24 - 20
Chargers +3 at Raiders
I view these as roughly equal teams even with Derek Carr playing, and I prefer to take the Chargers on the road where their lack of support isn't a drag. Take the points.
Chargers 24 - 23
SUNDAY NIGHT
Giants +12 at Broncos
I could see the Giants getting shut out here, and their defense starting out strong but giving way after being on the field too long. But 12 is a lot of points, and the downgrade from Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard to Roger Lewis and Evan Engram isn't that big. Odell Beckham is the only real loss, and he's not worth 5-7 points (the amount by which the line must have jumped) on his own. Take the Giants.
Broncos 20 - 10
MONDAY NIGHT
Colts +4.5* at Titans
No one knows yet if Marcus Mariota will play, and it's such a massive downgrade from him to Matt Cassel, it's hard even to set a ballpark line. I made it 4.5 as I think it would be around three if Cassel plays. I'll take the Titans at home on Monday night.
*made-up line
Titans 24 - 17
* made-up line
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I went 10-3-1 against the spread in Week 5 to put me at 41-34-2 on the season. I went 3-2 on LVH SuperContest picks to go 13-12 overall there. I was 123-128-5 during the 2017 season. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.
