•The talk out of Oakland is that Amari Cooper looks ready to break out, and I'm definitely buying it.
Cooper arrived to OTAs with more bulk on his frame, which would seem to mean he's up to the 215 or 220-pound range at 6-foot-1. That bodes well for his chances of improving on his red-zone production after totaling just 11 touchdowns in his first two years, and his prospect profile in general strongly hinted at an imminent breakout even at his previous weight.
While I still don't think Cooper has the prospect profile to project as a truly elite, top-five sort of wideout, I do think he'll settle in as a top-10 receiver for the next eight years or so, hovering in the 1,300-yard, 10-touchdown range for most or all of that stretch. He already has 2,223 yards to his credit and will be just 23 tomorrow, so it's highly likely that he will improve his production at Michael Crabtree's expense as he continues to develop his skill set with experience. I'd probably rank Cooper about equal with Dez Bryant this year, behind just Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, A.J. Green, Mike Evans, and Jordy Nelson.
I don't think I have any MFL10 shares of Cooper yet – I'll need to change that.
• I'd still consider fourth-round pick Joe Williams the favorite to back up Carlos Hyde, but reports out of San Francisco say undrafted rookie runner Matt Breida has
•The talk out of Oakland is that Amari Cooper looks ready to break out, and I'm definitely buying it.
Cooper arrived to OTAs with more bulk on his frame, which would seem to mean he's up to the 215 or 220-pound range at 6-foot-1. That bodes well for his chances of improving on his red-zone production after totaling just 11 touchdowns in his first two years, and his prospect profile in general strongly hinted at an imminent breakout even at his previous weight.
While I still don't think Cooper has the prospect profile to project as a truly elite, top-five sort of wideout, I do think he'll settle in as a top-10 receiver for the next eight years or so, hovering in the 1,300-yard, 10-touchdown range for most or all of that stretch. He already has 2,223 yards to his credit and will be just 23 tomorrow, so it's highly likely that he will improve his production at Michael Crabtree's expense as he continues to develop his skill set with experience. I'd probably rank Cooper about equal with Dez Bryant this year, behind just Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, A.J. Green, Mike Evans, and Jordy Nelson.
I don't think I have any MFL10 shares of Cooper yet – I'll need to change that.
• I'd still consider fourth-round pick Joe Williams the favorite to back up Carlos Hyde, but reports out of San Francisco say undrafted rookie runner Matt Breida has stood out at OTAs. It's a situation worth monitoring, as Williams was a fringe-type fourth-round prospect, and Breida generally had the more impressive college career. There isn't a meaningful pedigree distinction between the two.
Breida's senior season at Georgia Southern was a disaster, totaling just 646 yards and three touchdowns on 168 carries (3.9 YPC), but that was due to team-wide dysfunction after indispensable coach Willie Fritz left for Tulane. In the two prior seasons under Fritz's watch, Breida ran for 3,094 yards and 34 touchdowns on just 374 carries – good for 8.3 yards per carry.
In addition to the generally strong production, Breida's prospect profile is made especially encouraging by his workout numbers. At 5-foot-9, 195 pounds, Breida was timed at 4.39 seconds in the 40-yard dash at the Georgia Southern pro day, adding a 42-inch vertical, 134-inch broad jump, and 11.19 agility score. While pro day workouts often result in more favorable times than at the Combine, especially regarding the 40-yard dash, it's still safe to say that Breida has elite explosiveness and agility.
•I'm not entirely sure what to make of the Tampa Bay running back competition.
The reports out of OTAs say Doug Martin, suspended for the first three games of the year, looks as good as he ever has, with allusions to improved physical and mental health after Martin underwent unspecified drug treatment this winter. Martin always had strong pedigree as a former first-round pick whose NFL career got off to a blazing fast start, but durability and, evidently, off-field issues have conspired to block him from returning to such heights. If those two variables are in his favor now, then I see no reason why Martin can't reestablish himself as a standout starter.
And yet, that three-game suspension leaves the door open for Charles Sims or/and Jeremy McNichols to establish roles in the offense. Both players are elite pass-catching threats at running back, and can pose at least a middling threat as runners. I think at least one – probably Sims – holds on as the primary passing-down and hurry-up back, leaving Martin's ceiling as the early-down and short-yardage back.
As players like LeGarrette Blount and Marshawn Lynch have shown in recent years, an early-down, short-yardage back can have plenty of value if he plays in a high-scoring offense. I fully expect the Buccaneers to be one of the 10 best offenses in the league, and so I expect Martin to carry legitimate RB2 upside as long as he's healthy after the suspension. But his shaky injury history and complicated short-term circumstances means there's plenty of risk, too.
•It was a good move by the Ravens, but Jeremy Maclin signing with Baltimore was one of the least desirable outcomes for his fantasy value. Joe Flacco is rarely better than average, and the presence of Mike Wallace might preclude the possibility of Maclin getting a disproportionately big piece of that rather small pie. He would have been on my WR3 radar if he had signed with a team like Dallas or Carolina, but going to Baltimore means Maclin mostly harms Wallace's value more than he creates any himself. To me, they're both WR4-types at best for the time being.
•Since the draft, the line out of Houston has consistently been that Tom Savage is the team's starting quarterback, and through this point in OTAs that has remained the case, with Deshaun Watson primarily working with the second-team offense. I don't think there's much insight to be found in that, however. The Texans probably would have brought Watson along slowly anyway, and it doesn't feel like they're calling Savage the starter so much as noting that, Well, technically he's our most recent starter.
Savage is a big quarterback with a strong arm, but his skill set has otherwise been just about bankrupt to this point. In his two starts last year he completed 23-of-37 passes for 201 yards (5.4 YPA), and the film was even worse than the numbers. It was the kind of stuff that would get you cut if the team hadn't spent a fourth-round pick on you two years ago. Savage showed no ability to read the defense against the Bengals in his first start and showed even less pocket presence, holding on to the ball too long and taking four sacks. His second start was even worse, totaling 25 yards on eight attempts before getting pulled for Brock Osweiler. Don't forget that – Savage was benched for Brock Osweiler while melting down against the league's worst pass defense.
Honestly, I consider Savage less fit for a starting role than I do Brandon Weeden, who is the presumed third quarterback even though Savage has been worse than Weeden was at his lowest points. If Savage heads into Week 1 as starter, I'd be shocked if he isn't benched for Watson by the fifth game.
