FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Friday's eight-game slate features some of the most exploitable teams in the league in terms of DvP. For example, over the past 10 games, the Magic are giving up the most fantasy points to point guards, the Bulls are giving up the second most to shooting guards, the Hornets are giving up the most to small forwards and the Pacers are giving up the most to centers. With that in mind, let's jump in.

GUARDS

Jamal Murray, DEN at ORL ($6,000)
Earlier this year, Murray dropped 36.3 fantasy points on the Magic, who are giving up the most fantasy points to point guards over the past 10 games (59.6). Though his role was in flux to begin the season while teammate Emmanuel Mudiay was hot, Murray has established himself as the true starting point guard of the team over the past 12 contests, seeing 30.0 minutes per game and posting 17.7 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.1 assists. As always, the risk with deploying Murray is his lack of supplementary stats. If he happens to go cold from the field, you're likely out of luck. For that reason, it's hard to recommend Murray for anything other than tournaments, despite the extremely favorable matchup.

Jrue Holiday, NOP vs. SAC ($7,500)
Holiday has played a bigger role in the Pelicans' offense over the past six games (Anthony Davis has missed the past three), averaging 23.3 points and 5.2 assists per game. Most notably, he's upped his field-goal attempts over that stretch from 12.9 per game to 19.0 per game, so his increased scoring isn't the result of an unsustainable hot streak. Even if Davis returns Friday, it seems safe to assume Holiday will continue firing away at his recent rate. The matchup is favorable, as well, as the Kings have given up the third-most fantasy points (60.2) to shooting guards over the past 10 games.

Elfrid Payton, ORL vs. DEN ($8,100)
With Evan Fournier (ankle) sidelined, Payton will likely see more ball handling duties than usual, as Fournier ranks third on the team in usage (among players who have seen at least 400 minutes). Payton's minutes have also been increasing throughout the year after recovering from a hamstring injury. He's seen 33.2 minutes per game over the past five contests and played a season-high 40 during Wednesday's contest against the Hawks. With all that in mind, Payton is likely a tournament, rather that cash game, play. His floor has proven to be quite low, but he's averaging 13.9 points, 8.6 assists, 5.1 rebounds and a combined 2.5 blocks/steals per 36 minutes this season (36.9 fantasy points), giving him near-triple-double upside with some especially valuable defensive stats chipped in.

Nicolas Batum, CHI at CHA ($6,400)
Batum, who missed 13 of the team's first 18 games while nursing an elbow injury, has played 30-plus minutes in each of the past four tilts. Over that stretch, he's averaged 12.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.0 steals per contest. Though he's doesn't have a massive ceiling, his floor is relatively high, which is certainly valuable in its own right in DFS. That said, he has a good chance to hit his ceiling Friday, as he's going up against a Chicago squad that is giving up the second-most fantasy points per game (62.6) to two-guards over the past 10 contests.

FORWARDS

Kevin Durant, GSW at DET ($11,000)
Despite the price hike, Durant is close to a must-play. In his first game without Stephen Curry (ankle), Durant posted a 35-point triple-double with two blocks -- good for 66.2 fantasy points. He also, unsurprisingly, took a team-high 28 shots. Klay Thompson was second on the team with 14. Durant's usage rate reached an astounding 43.0 percent, which would be the highest in the league (by a large margin) if averaged across the whole year. The return of Draymond Green will probably drive Durant's usage down. However, it could lead to easier looks for Durant, allowing him to potentially score more points. In addition to all that, the matchup happens to be favorable. The Pistons are giving up the fourth-most most fantasy points to small forwards over the past 10 contests.

Denzel Valentine, CHI at CHA ($5,100)
Valentine is a high-risk/high-reward option suited for tournaments rather than cash games. He's taken just 9.3 field-goal attempts per game over the past 13 contests and has relied largely on rebounds (6.1) and assists (3.7) to rack up fantasy points over that stretch. The Hornets come into Friday's contest giving up the most fantasy points to small forwards (51.2) over the past 10 tilts, including the most rebounds (11.2) and second-most assists (4.9). If nothing else, he can provide some salary relief for fantasy owners looking to spend up on other players.

Center

Kevin Love, CLE at IND ($8,000)
The Pacers are allowing the most fantasy points per game to centers (51.3) over the past 10 contests. Love is coming into the matchup hot as well, averaging 21.2 points and 10.6 rebounds over the past 11 tilts, which included a four-game stretch of 26.8 points and 12.3 rebounds per contest. His price has risen as a result, but considering his recent play and matchup, Love seems like a quality option in any daily format.

DeMarcus Cousins, NOP vs. SAC ($12,000)
Cousins dropped a ridiculous 78.4 fantasy points Wednesday against the Nuggets with Anthony Davis (groin) out. However, that wasn't even his highest mark of the season, as he torched the Kings earlier in the year for 79.6 fantasy points. Even with the possibility that Davis returns, coupled with the fact the Kings give up the 26th fewest fantasy points to centers over the past 10 games, Cousins potential for this contest is arguably too high to pass up.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Alex Barutha plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel Username: unclestosh99, DraftKings Username: Roto_Alex.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Barutha
Alex is RotoWire's Chief NBA Editor. He writes articles about daily fantasy, year-long fantasy and sports betting. You can hear him on the RotoWire NBA Podcast, Sirius XM, VSiN and other platforms. He firmly believes Robert Covington is the most underrated fantasy player of the past decade.
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