Regan's Rumblings: On Manny and Some Top Prospects

As I write this on Wednesday, my Twitter feed has been dominated by two news items (outside of our President):
1. Josh Hader's seven-year-old racist tweets
2. Manny Machado to the Dodgers
On the former, because there will be no suspension by MLB, there should be no fantasy impact. The Tweets were an awful and vile read, and hopefully Hader isn't the person today that he was at 17. On the latter, the deal has yet to become official, and given the Orioles' history of deals falling through once the medicals come in, I'll believe it when the teams announce the deal (Wednesday night edit: it's official).

Here are the fantasy implications:

Dodgers: Machado will be the everyday shortstop obviously, eliminating the Enrique Hernandez/Chris Taylor timeshare. Taylor moves to second base, Max Muncy to first, with Cody Bellinger in the outfield most days. Things get tight once Yasiel Puig (oblique) returns in early August, likely meaning less time for Joc Pederson and Andrew Toles. For now, Hernandez is most impacted by this deal and Logan Forsythe (assuming he's not part of the deal) is pushed even further down the bench and perhaps even off the roster.

Orioles: Get ready Oriole fans. Machado off the roster likely opens up shortstop for Tim Beckham full time and third base for Danny Valencia. Beckham, a former No. 1 overall pick of the Rays, is batting just .206/.254/.291 after last year's breakout (.278/.328/.454, 22 HR), while Valencia has hit at a .251/.308/.419 clip. Fortunately, the Orioles can look forward to Ryan Mountcastle's arrival sometime in 2019 as he's a third baseman and their top prospect. The 21-year-old is currently batting .314/.364/.515 for Double-A Bowie.

I often gets asked as part of our Ask an Expert feature about the ETA of some of baseball's top prospects. Everyone wants to know about Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but let's go a bit deeper and look at 10 prospects who should help fantasy owners down the stretch:

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, TOR
The guy for whom everyone is waiting. I've had him stashed in Yahoo leagues for months, and burning that roster spot has hurt, but I'm waiting this one out. Vlad Jr. is rehabbing a knee injury, and considering he's five for 13 with three doubles, the rehab seems to be going well. He'd probably already be in the big leagues if not for the injury, but I expect he'll hit his way up sometime in August. If I'm the Blue Jays, I get what I can for impending free agent Josh Donaldson, sign Vlad to a six-year contract, and give him third base no later than August 1. What happens in reality could range from that to not seeing him in Toronto until April 2019 once the Blue Jays gain that extra year of control a la the Cubs/Kris Bryant, Braves/Ronald Acuna, etc. By the way, there are Vlad Jr.'s combined stats this year: .405/.456/.664, 11 HR, 22:21 K:BB in 217 at-bats.

2. Eloy Jimenez, OF, CHW
Jimenez hasn't skipped a beat since being promoted to Triple-A last month, batting .304/.371/.518. By all accounts, Jimenez's bat is big league ready, but considering he's coming off an adductor strain, the White Sox will likely exercise caution. I'm not sure that if he hits .400/.500/.800 between now and September 1 that we'll even see him prior to roster expansion, as the rebuilding White Sox have every incentive to keep that service clock from starting too early. Whatever happens, the White Sox certainly have an open corner outfield slot waiting for Jimenez's arrival, as their current starting outfield looks as follows:

LF – Leury Garcia – Hitting a respectable .290/.323/.404 with 10 steals, but also a 46:6 K:BB (3.1 percent BB percent) in 193 plate appearances.
CF – Adam Engel – His .574 OPS this year has actually increased his career mark. 'nuff said.
RF – Avisail Garcia – After breaking out with a .330/.380/.506 season in 2017, he's regressed to .282/.297/.542 with year with just two walks and 34 strikeouts in 148 plate appearances.

So, no, he's not "blocked" whatsoever. It's tough to say what the White Sox do with Jimenez this year, but best guess is that he makes his big league debut this September.

3. Victor Robles, OF, WAS
Out since mid-April with an elbow injury, Robles has begun a minor league rehab assignment and should return to Triple-A shortly. Ranked as RotoWire's No. 4 overall prospect, Robles got a very brief taste of big league pitching at the age of 20 last year, and, by all accounts, his bat is ready for the show. Robles has been mentioned in connection with a possible J.T. Realmuto trade, but that's all speculation and factoring in Bryce Harper's impending free agency, I would be surprised to see him dealt. As for 2018, Harper and Soto are obviously full-time guys, and considering Adam Eaton's .393 OBP, he probably is too, and the Nationals have a solid No. 4 outfielder in Michael Taylor. Take that all in, and it seems the only way Robles accumulates 2018 fantasy value is if he's traded, Eaton gets hurt, or the Nationals fall out of the race and decide to deal Harper (don't see it). Once Robles gets his chance however, he has Soto-like upside.

4. Peter Alonso, 1B, NYM
He's struggled to a .174/.306/.413 line in 25 games since his promotion to Triple-A, but for the year, Alonso has 21 homers in 90 games with a reasonable 84:57 K:BB. He should be just fine. Alonso also has a .189 BABIP at the minors' highest level, so with his 12.6 percent BB percent, it's inevitable that the BA will rise the rest of the way. Still though, this could lead the Mets to keep him down all season, but if he catches fire as expected, Wilmer Flores and Dominic Smith don't represent much of a road block. Smith is a career .193 hitter at the big-league level, and Flores has pretty much morphed into a utility man at this point in his career.

5. Willie Calhoun, 2B/OF, TEX
Most (including himself) figured Calhoun was a lock for the Opening Day LF job, but a lack of consistency this spring and a desire for the team to have him work on his defense left Calhoun in Triple-A to start the year. The prevailing opinion at the time was that his stay would be short, but here we are in mid-July and Calhoun still toils in the minors. Overall, he's hitting a reasonable .307/.359/.448. That's fine, but Calhoun hit 31 minor league homers last year with an OPS that was 119 points higher. He may be closing in on a promotion however, as Calhoun's July has gone rather well – .455/.538/.673 with just two strikeouts to seven walks. He'd likely be an upgrade over Joey Gallo and Ronald Guzman, either of whom could play first base with Calhoun in the outfield. I expect his promotion this month.

6. Austin Riley, 3B, ATL
Riley has returned from a knee injury without missing a beat, as the 21-year-old has hit .318/.412/.500 in 44 at-bats. Overall, he's even better at .310/.377/.543. He's posted some lofty strikeout rates in his progression through the Atlanta system, including a 29.6 percent mark in Triple-A this year, but the overall numbers are impressive, and Riley ranks as the No. 14 prospect in the game according to RotoWire's James Anderson. The strikeouts and rehab from the knee probably leave him in the minors for now, but with regular 3B Johan Camargo hitting a modest .248/.346/.422, a Riley hot streak could get him to the big leagues in short order. With the Braves firmly in the playoff hunt, they will certainly play the best players the rest of the way. They just need to figure out when Riley is "ready." I expect it will be in mid-August at the latest, probably earlier.

7. Christin Stewart, OF, DET
Over the last 30 days, Stewart is just 11-for-61 (five HR, 10:9 K:BB), taking him down to .257/.338/.483 overall. He likely tops out as a .250 hitter, but Stewart has done a nice job in improving his contact rate from 72 percent last year to 77 percent in 2018. The 30-homer power is still there and given he's 24 and playing in a rebuilding organization with very little power in its lineup, Stewart should get his chance soon. He'll probably need to heat up a bit first, but when you look at his competition at the big-league level, there's not much there. Regular LF JaCoby Jones is hitting just .214/.269/.373, and at the DH position, 39-year-old Victor Martinez is about finished considering his .231/.282/.304 slash line. At the least, Stewart is a 9/1 callup, but I think he happens closer to early August.

8. Justus Sheffield, SP, NYY
This 22-year-old southpaw may be shade under six-foot, but overall in 85 innings he's managed a 2.44 ERA and 93:38 K:BB while holding opposing hitters to a .193 BA. Despite his small stature, scouting reports have Sheffield with a mid-90s fastball, and though his secondary stuff is less highly regarded, some scouts term his slider a plus pitch and his change average. A former first-round pick by the Indians, Sheffield came over (with Clint Frazier) in the Andrew Miller deal, and if you believe the Internet, the Yankees refused to include him in any of their Manny Machado proposals. Sheffield's control hasn't been very good this year (4.0 BB/9), but the Yankees like him a lot, and in his last six starts, Sheffield has a 1.80 ERA and 37:12 K:BB in 35 innings. The Yankees seem likely to pursue a starting pitcher via trade this month, but if they do not, Sheffield could get a look considering the struggles of Sonny Gray (5.46 ERA) and Domingo German (5.49 ERA).

9. Danny Jansen, C, TOR
This is digging a bit deeper, as Jansen ranks as the No. 165 overall prospect on RotoWire's Top 400 list, but there's a lot to like about his situation. Jansen is batting a solid .281/.405/.473 for Triple-A Buffalo, including eight home runs, a surprising four steals and a 36:36 K:BB. He's always had a good eye at the plate, as for his minor league career (1,400+ PA), Jansen has struck out just 12.1 percent of the time while posting an 11.1 percent BB percent. He doesn't hit for a lot of power at this point in his career, but that could come in time given his advanced approach. Toronto is out of the race, and with 35-year-old Russell Martin hitting just .179/.328/.285, the Jays could take a look at their catcher of the future sometime this season.

10. Kolby Allard, SP, ATL
A modest low-90s (very low 90s) fastball has kept Allard from getting the prospect attention that his numbers seemingly warrant. As a 20-year-old in Triple-A pitching against hitters several years older than he, Allard has spun a 2.85 ERA over 104.1 innings. The modest fastball has him with a 7.0 K/9, though excellent control (2.7 BB/9). Often compared to former Brave southpaw Steve Avery, Allard is certainly young enough to add velocity as he grows into his 6'1" body. He also has the pedigree of being the No. 14 overall pick in the 2015 draft, so the ability is there to have a long big-league career. Allard looks to be a high-floor/low-ceiling type of pitcher, though I do think he has No. 2 starter upside, but only if more velocity is in his future. Allard should get his chance this year, as one must wonder how much longer Anibal Sanchez's 2.60 ERA will last. Even Sean Newcomb could find himself out of the rotation at some point, as his last three starts have been awful (12 innings, 13 runs, 12 walks and just seven strikeouts).