MLB Barometer: New Arms on the Scene

There are usually a few parts of the MLB calendar that lead to a cluster of prospects arriving in the big leagues together.

The door can open on the first day of the season in which a player can be brought up without accruing a full year of service time (this year, it was April 13).

In other instances, the early weeks of June become a busy time for promotions as Super Two concerns begin to fade.

Of course, roster expansion in September on the first day of the season's final full month is the largest swarm of new talent into the player pool, but many of those players are not prospects, as much as they're guys who could be auditioning for roster spot for the following season.

With the perfect storm of injuries and attrition, a nice group of young pitchers has arrived with regular chances to start for their respective clubs over the last couple of weeks.

Walker Buehler, LA -- Buehler was elevated from "yo-yo" status for the Dodgers when Hyun-Jin Ryu was lost to a groin injury that will sideline him until after the All-Star break. Talent-wise, he has the best arsenal of this bunch, but he might face the tightest workload restrictions of the bunch as well, having logged just 98 innings in 2017 as he became further removed from 2015 Tommy John surgery. Buehler was part of a combined no-hitter during the Dodgers' series in Mexico over the weekend, and it he might prove capable of eclipsing a strikeout-per-inning in his rookie campaign, but it's hard to imagine a scenario in which he's allowed to pile up more than 140 innings this season.

Mike Soroka, ATL -- Soroka shined in his debut against the Mets last week, picking up a win over Noah Syndergaard with six innings of one-run ball. Considering that he's a little under three months away from his 21st birthday, Soroka's early arrival to Atlanta speaks to his polish -- as he commands his entire arsenal effectively, which makes his offerings play up. With 153.2 innings at Double-A in 2017, Soroka's workload restrictions will almost be negligible, as he should be given every chance to top 180 frames in 2018 if he's healthy and effective. The strikeout rate will almost certainly lag behind Buehler's, and most of the pitchers on this list, but the ratios could be excellent, especially for a rookie, and the team context is very good with the Braves' improving lineup and bullpen behind him. Fantasy-wise, Kyle Hendricks' peak season is Soroka's statistical upside, but his deeper repertoire should significantly mitigate his downside variance.

Fernando Romero, MIN -- Romero hasn't allowed a run in 11.2 innings over his first two-major league starts. At least until Ervin Santana is ready to return from the DL (likely in June), his place in the Twins' rotation appears to be safe. Even after that happens, Romero has a path to pitch well enough to have the team bump someone else from the mix. Romero's three-pitch arsenal features a plus-fastball, a good slider and an average changeup. While his walk rate jumped with the move up to the higher levels in the Minnesota system, he's not considered a liability with his control from a scouting perspective. The knock on Romero comes from his size (he's listed at even six-feet tall), which has always left him with a floor as a high-upside bullpen arm. Having spent little time at Triple-A, and having not completely dominated at Double-A, it's easy to see stretches where Romero experiences typical rookie growing pains as big-league hitters get multiple looks at him. He'll likely miss bats at a useful clip, and the challenge of rostering Romero might be the blow-ups in favorable matchups mixed with stretches where he looks great against more difficult opponents.

Nick Kingham, PIT -- An excellent debut against the Cardinals may have set the bar exceedingly high for Kingham, who has used a four-pitch mix to rack up 16 strikeouts over 12.1 innings in his first two starts. The biggest difference with Kingham now compared to his recent work in the upper levels of the minors is the use of his slider, which has generated a 50 percent whiff rate in his first two outings with Pittsburgh. Fastball command will be very important to Kingham's success, because the pitch doesn't have above-average velocity. The Pirates optioned Kingham to Triple-A on Monday, due to a span of eight days on the schedule with only five games. He'll be back up in the Pirates' rotation the next time the team needs a fifth starter, likely one week from this Saturday, unless Joe Musgrove is deemed healthy by then. If Musgrove is healthy and the Pirates want him in the rotation, Kingham or Chad Kuhl will get bumped from the starting five.

Domingo German, NYY -- German stepped in for Jordan Montgomery (elbow) with four scoreless innings out of the bullpen against Houston last week. That put him on the radar as a potential replacement when the Yankees revealed that Montgomery will be out 6-8 weeks due to a flexor strain in his left elbow. German followed up Tuesday's bullpen performance with six no-hit, scoreless frames and nine strikeouts against the Indians in his first big-league start Sunday. Thus far, he's throwing more curveballs and changeups than fastballs (he uses a four-seamer and a two-seamer), getting whiffs at more than a 40 percent clip on the curve and change. German might be the least-hyped pitcher of this group, but he has a chance to be very good if the consistency of his command enables him to avoid the kind of critical mistakes that are punished by big-league hitters, especially in his home park.

This entire group should be relevant in 12-team mixed leagues going forward, and as streaming options in 10-team mixers as well. All five might end up inside the top-75 among starting pitchers when my mid-May rankings update is released next week.

Risers

Nick Markakis, OF, ATL -- If 2018 Braves were The Beatles, Markakis would be George Harrison. With a .344/.428/.550 line through 33 games, he's been a difference-maker even in shallow mixed leagues, although it's reasonable to think that he's spent a good portion of that time on league waiver wires, but even in the deeper formats in which he was drafted (15-plus teams), Markakis was hailed as a high-PT volume backup...someone for owners to use as an active roster filler until Ronald Acuña, Dustin Fowler or Willie Calhoun was promoted to a regular role. The appeal of Markakis was limited to the opportunity for everyday at-bats and that he could spend season hitting much higher in the Braves' batting order (usually cleanup) than he might elsewhere. The xStats suggest that Markakis wasn't the beneficiary of an overwhelming amount of luck to begin the season (.327 xBA, .498 xSLG) as he's been able to trim his strikeout rate from 16.4% last season to 8.2% in 2018 (he's also walked a 13.2% clip -- his highest mark since 2010). That improvement has been built on hitting pitches inside the strike zone at an elevated clip, a career-low groundball rate (40.3% GB%), and getting more mileage on flyballs with a career-high 15.4% HR/FB (5.6% in 2017, 8.2% career). With Ozzie Albies, Acuña and Freddie Freeman hitting in front of him, Markakis should get plenty of opportunities to drive in runs as he looks to crack the 100-RBI plateau for the first time since 2009.

Corey Dickerson, OF, PIT -- Like Markakis, Dickerson entered the season with fairly low expectations, having been sent to the Pirates as part of a cash dump by the Rays for Daniel Hudson, Tristan Gray and cash. Month by month, Dickerson slowly fell apart last season, but as Travis Sawchik of FanGraphs pointed out in February, Dickerson had one major flaw that pitchers exploited regularly as the season unfolded. He whiffed more than any player in the league against four-seam fastballs. According to Statcast, Dickerson had a 30.2% whiff rate against all fastballs in 2017. To begin 2018, he's slashed that mark to 13.9%, while hitting .319 with a .580 slugging percentage against heaters. He's still whiffing on breaking balls and off-speed pitches at a similar rate to his 2017 marks, so the scouting report will likely change, and his significant improved K% (9.6%) will likely tick backup accordingly barring quick adjustments. Even as that process takes place, Dickerson has a steady hold on a place in the middle third of the Pittsburgh lineup -- usually hitting fifth, and only sitting on the four occasions in which the Bucs have faced a left-handed starter through 35 games. With few left-handed starters in the NL Central, Dickerson should get more playing time in Pittsburgh that he would for most other clubs in 2018.

Kevin Pillar, OF, TOR -- It seemed safe to write off Pillar as an elite glove-first fixture in the Jays' lineup whose lack of patience at the plate would always be a limiting factor in his fantasy value as his low OBPs would bury him in the Jays' lineup and reduce his chances to become a bigger contributor in the stolen-base department. Pillar's average exit velocity is up 4.1 mph from last season (to 89.6), as he's been able make more hard contact on breaking pitches and off-speed offerings than he did a year ago, albeit with a slightly higher whiff rate. The damage he's done on those pitches isn't sustainable unless those whiff rates (which are above 30 percent) begin to fall, but he's actually been unlucky with fastballs (.254 BA, .448 SLG compared to a .315 xBA, .494 xSLG), so it's entirely possible that his increased ability to make hard contact will allow him to make a run at last season's career-high 16 homers again, while being less of a liability in the batting average and OBP departments thanks to a new baseline in his batting average on balls in play.

Jorge Soler, OF, KC -- Based on fWAR, Soler has been a top-30 position player over the first six weeks of the 2018 season with a mark (1.2) that bests Wade Davis' total for all of 2017 with the Cubs (1.1). The easiest change to see is improved plate discipline, which can be attributed to an increased focus on advanced scouting and gameplanning for opposing pitchers, according to Maria Torres of the Kansas City Star. Even with the improvements, Soler is more likely to hit .260 (albeit with a very good OBP if he continues walking 15 percent of the time) than to continue hitting .300, but he's currently locked in as the Royals' No. 2 hitter, as part of an overachieving top-half of the lineup in Kansas City.

Blake Snell, SP, TAM -- Last summer, I was making a push to cash in my AL-only keeper league, and one area I was looking for a boost was with my pitching. On August 6, 2017, I completed a deal to acquire Yu Darvish and Jake Faria for a package featuring Snell and Willy Adames. If I had won the league, I wouldn't care. I didn't even medal. Since that trade, Snell has made 17 starts for the Rays, going 9-2 with a 100:30 K:BB, 2.72 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. In 2018, he's shown an uptick in velocity across the board, and he's improved his contact rate allowed within the strike zone from 83.6% last season to 77.0%. If he's not already viewed as the Rays' best starter, it's only a matter of time. Snell is effectively commanding a four-pitch arsenal where every pitch is generating a whiff rate of at least 20 percent -- with two pitches, his curveball and slider -- getting whiffs at least 45 percent of the time.

Fallers

Danny Duffy, SP, KC -- Here's a draft-day regret. Duffy and Blake Snell were ADP neighbors just inside the Top 200 overall this winter and spring. Hopefully, you ended up with more shares of the right guy than I did. The issue might be mechanical in nature, as Duffy is going to ditch the wind-up going forward, according to Rustin Dodd of The Athletic. All things considered, Duffy wasn't pitched very well even prior to his most recent outing against Boston, in which he served up four homers -- including three to Mookie Betts. With an average exit velocity that has swollen to a career-worst 89.5 mph, the idea that he's tipping pitches makes sense, especially when you consider that his arsenal is still within a half-mph of his 2017 levels.

Ian Desmond, OF, COL -- Desmond is well on his way to a second straight below-replacement level season in Colorado. While a wrist injury suffered when he was hit by a pitch last spring can help to explain his 2017 struggles, there's no indication of any injury as a driving factor behind his dismal .188/.232/.385 line through 33 games. Desmond is hitting the ball on the ground more than ever, which other than not making contact at all, is the absolute worst possible attribute a hitter can possess when he gets to play half of his games at Coors Field. Despite the extreme worm-burning tendencies and ugly plate discipline (24.8% K%, 4.0% BB%), Desmond has six homers and three steals this season. His swing is a complete mess, however, and it may take several weeks -- if not an entire offseason -- to be fixed, if it's even salvageable.

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, BOS -- Raise your hand if you believed the Red Sox were going to be more aggressive under new manager Alex Cora. Keep your hand up if you believed that Bradley might be a cheap source of speed available late in drafts and auctions. (Typing with one hand is not efficient.) Although Bradley's hard-hit rate is currently sitting at a four-year low 36.3%, his xStats (.234 xBA, .410 xSLG) are in line with his career norms (.232, .413). If Bradley has been dropped in a 12-team mixed league (or if it happens in the near future), there's still reason to believe he might be the 15-20 steal, 15ish-homer outfielder you we were hoping for.

Ian Kinsler, 2B, LAA -- Kinsler turns 36 in June, and it's fair to wonder if the wear and tear of a 13-year career has simply caught up to him. With one homer and three steals through 21 games, he's been a big underperformer to this point, despite landing in an improved Anaheim lineup this offseason. Kinsler's 27.3% hard-hit rate is his lowest since 2015 (26.4%), while his launch angle has tumbled from the previous two seasons as well (17.3%). The concern here is that even the xLine isn't great: .232 xBA, .388 xSLG, .313 xWOBA. The Angles have used him exclusively as their leadoff hitter since he returned from the DL after a groin injury that first surfaced during the latter part of spring training, but with plenty of viable alternatives to shuffle around in the batting order, he could quickly end up in a much less valuable lineup spot barring a turnaround in the near future.

Scott Kingery, 2B/SS, PHI -- The Phillies continue to give Kingery near-everyday playing time, as the service time implications of keeping him on the big-league roster all season dissipated when he signed a pre-debut long-term deal with the club (six years, $24 million). Manager Gabe Kapler has dropped him in the batting order, however, as he's hit seventh or lower in four of his last five starts, while getting five days off over the last 11 games. In keeper and dynasty leagues, Kingery owners are likely holding for the power-speed payoff down the road, but in situations where he becomes available (via trade or waivers), he's still worth targeting despite a 6:31 BB:K over 30 big-league games. Thanks to a 41.4% hard-hit rate, Kingery's xBA (.247) and xSLG (.460) point to a young player that has been unlucky in the midst of typical growing pains in his first exposure to MLB pitching (.212/.265/.346).

Addison Russell, SS, CHC -- Last week, Scott Jenstad presented a strong case for dropping Russell. Slowly but surely, the homerless Russell is sliding down the Cubs' batting order, and it will be interesting to see if he eventually loses more playing time Javy Baez at shortstop. Despite the improved K%, it's easy to wonder if he'll ever reach the lofty expectations set forth by his prospect pedigree, as Russell has been unable to replicate the 20-homer pop he offered in 2016 when his barrel rate peaked at 9.3% (he finished below 6.0% in 2015 and 2017, and had not recorded a barrel in 2018 entering play Monday night).