DraftKings MLB: Thursday Picks

DraftKings MLB: Thursday Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

The featured salary cap slate features just four games on Thursday, beginning at 7:05 EDT. There is at least one pitcher on the slate that we can use a full stack against, and several others with matchup difficulty, which could make grabbing chalk hurlers a viable option.

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Pitcher

Dylan Bundy, BAL vs. TB ($9,800) - Bundy has delivered on his prospect hype to begin 2018, as he has allowed just five earned runs over 31.2 innings (five starts) while striking out 40 batters over that span. The Rays are sporting a bottom-3 RAA against the slider, a pitch that Bundy has thrown nearly 27 percent of the time. 


GPP Fade: Chris Archer, TB at BAL ($8,800) - Archer has some appeal against the strikeout-prone Orioles but the elevated price combined with his long-standing home run issues have let most of the air out of what could have been an upside play. The right-hander is sporting a 6.59 ERA through five starts this season and has struck out just seven left-handed batters in 12.1 innings, which doesn't seem like a recipe for success at hitter-friendly Camden Yards.



Cheap GPP Consideration: Jakob Junis, KC vs. CWS ($8,300) - Junis' peripherals indicate that he likely won't hang onto his sparkling 2.03 ERA for long but most probably wouldn't expect that he possesses the sixth most effective fastball in the league according to RAA (6.2). This should serve him well against the White Sox, who are 1 of 13 teams to carry a negative RAA against the heater in 2018. 



Catcher

Salvador Perez, KC vs. CWS ($3,500) - Opposing starter Lucas Giolito has been shellacked to the tune of 20 earned runs in 20 innings pitched this season. He has notched a 9:19 K/BB ratio over that span. Perez has only played in two games this season after a stint on the disabled list but should be considered a power threat against Giolito due to the .221 ISO he posted against right-handers in 335 at-bats in 2017.



First Base



Hanley Ramirez, BOS at TOR ($4,500) - Marco Estrada has shown a reverse platoon split throughout his career, and 2018 appears to be no exception, as evidenced by the .673 slugging percentage he has allowed over 13 innings. While we should expect that number to come down a bit, we can still use his issues with same-handed hitters to our advantage with Ramirez, who has notched a .200 ISO and a 41 percent hard contact rate against righties over 60 at-bats.



Second Base

Javier Baez, CHC vs. MIL ($4,700) - Chase Anderson is another hurler living up to his reverse split profile in 2018, having allowed four homers against right-handed hitters in just 14.1 innings. Baez has been on a tear so far this season, posting a gaudy .525 ISO against righty pitchers in 59 at-bats. The 25-year-old has always been susceptible to striking out but he shouldn't have to worry about that against Anderson, as he has fanned just nine of the 60 right-handed batters he has faced this year.


Third Base



Pedro Alvarez, BAL vs. TB ($3,000) - We mentioned Archer's troubles with the home run ball earlier and we can expand here to note that most of the damage has come against lefties, against whom the 29-year-old has surrendered four long balls over 12.1 innings. Alvarez holds a .178 ISO in 45 at-bats against right-handers this season while notching a hard contact rate greater than 32 percent.



Shortstop



Brock Holt, BOS at TOR ($3,000) - While it is true that Estrada keeps a reverse split, his 5.81 xFIP against lefties suggests that he will be hit hard by them as well. Holt has flourished in the absence of Xander Bogaerts, notching a .356 wOBA against righties over 43 at-bats, and could be an example of an affordable option to throw in a lineup for those hoping to afford left-hander Chris Sale.



Outfield



Christian Yelich, MIL at CHC ($4,600) - Kyle Hendricks has allowed four homers to lefties in eight innings this season. While there is almost certainly some small sample noise in that number, it must be said that his HR/9 rate against lefties jumped from 0.68 in 2016 to 1.24 last season, when he held a hard contact rate of 34 percent. Yelich could be someone to take advantage of this increase, as he has tallied a .200 ISO and a .411 wOBA against righties in 30 at-bats this year.



Denard Span, TB at BAL ($4,000) - Bundy remains a confident selection but those who want more options on this short day may want to take a look at Span, who has tallied a .349 wOBA against righties over 49 at-bats this season. Meanwhile. Bundy has allowed a .360 wOBA against lefty hitters over 15.1 innings.



Lorenzo Cain, MIL at CHC ($4,500) - Hendricks has performed well against righties so far this season but Cain could find a bit of edge in the matchup as he has logged a 2.6 RAA against the changeup, a pitch the right-hander has thrown nearly 24 percent of the time. Cain may be due for some better results against same-handed pitchers going forward, as he has notched a 34 percent hard contact rate over 61 at-bats.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Christopher Olson plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: Sommerset, FanDuel: Christop, Yahoo: Martins.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Christopher Olson
Christopher Olson writes DFS articles and blogs for a variety of sports including MLB, NFL and MMA. Follow him on Twitter @RealChrisOlson
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