Rougned Odor

Was that finally the last straw for Odor as an everyday player? It's a question that's been asked many times, but the answer might finally be "yes." He was limited to just 38 games in 2020, in part due to a brief trip to the injured list with an eye infection and in part because he didn't hit nearly well enough to keep his spot in the lineup. He's had plenty of bad years in the past, but he established a new low in 2020 with a 51 wRC+, the product of a .167/.209/.413 line. His 10 homers in 148 plate appearances remained a strong total for a second baseman, but there simply isn't a place in the league for a player who reaches base in barely more than a fifth of his trips to the plate. While a .157 BABIP certainly dragged his line down, a career-high 31.8 K% was also part of the problem. He'll have to bounce back quite a bit to be fantasy-relevant this season, and it's not clear he'll get the chance to do so.

Last season marked the third time in four years Odor has hit at least 30 homers. It was also the second time in the past three seasons in which he failed to hit higher than .205. Last year, he really sold out for the long ball as his strikeout rate jumped from the low 20s to 31% as the second baseman continues to struggle to get back to his peak of 2016. If you are a believer in September stats serving as a harbinger of better days ahead, Odor's .261/.337/.638 slash line over his final 100 plate appearances should get your attention. He hit nine homers and drove in 25 runs down the stretch, but the skill set remained mostly the same as the swing and miss was still prevalent in between home runs. It is tough to get excited about a 90th percentile barrel rate in this case. He compiles the counting states, but kills your batting average.

Coming off a 2017 season with conflicting underlying metrics and surface stats, Odor took the disconnect to a higher level last season. As expected, Odor's BABIP rebounded, though based on an elevated 45.2% hard-hit rate, his .305 BABIP was low. More curious was a drop in HR/FB despite playing half his games in Globe Life Park, one of the best venues for lefty power. The drop in HR/FB in tandem with a slight decline in flyball rate resulted in just 18 homers, after he slugged a combined 63 the previous two campaigns, though missing a month early tempered his total. Consistency is also an issue as Odor posted a .602 OPS through June 28 while registering a .605 mark from Aug. 12 on. In between he recorded a 1.055 OPS. Odor managed a dozen steals, but since he was caught an equal number of times, he may not be given the green light as often. Odor has the underlying skills to be a top-10 second baseman.

Odor is coming off back-to-back 30-10 seasons and is just entering his age-24 campaign, but he's a risky investment. There were concerns about his approach coming into 2017, and those concerns proved justified as Odor hit under .200 in three separate months of the season, resulting in just a 61 wRC+ for the year (the worst among 144 qualified hitters). His strikeout issues got worse down the stretch, with Odor fanning over 30 percent of the time over the final month. Sure, he had a bit of tough luck on balls in play (.224 BABIP), and to his credit Odor did start to draw more walks later in the year, but the "expected" numbers from Statcast suggest he deserved his fate for the most part (.285 xwOBA, .221 xBA). He just signed an extension last spring and would seem to have a decent leash in his role, but Odor's power/speed contributions will be offset to a great extent by the batting-average drain if he can't make some adjustments.

A popular sleeper heading into 2016, Odor did anything but stink up the joint, instead cashing in as one of fantasy's most profitable players. Despite his pint-sized build (5-foot-11, 195 pounds), he ranked third in home runs among second basemen and tied for 21st overall. He launched more flyballs than in his 2015 rookie stint, and Odor enjoyed one of the league's most significant improvements in his rate of infield pop-ups (19.1 percent in 2015, 8.2 percent in 2016). He was getting more out of his aerial attacks with an apparently more effective bat path through the zone. That should keep him above 20 taters, even with regression. The 14 stolen bases (thanks to his elite base running rating) and .271 batting average -- despite his low walk rate -- look repeatable. Of course, those looking for a great batting average won't find it: He's an aggressive pull-hitting hacker. Fantasy players in on-base-percentage leagues may want to avoid overpaying. Even with his contact flaws, however, the four-category production makes him one of fake baseball's best second basemen, especially pertaining to power.

Odor’s 5-foot-11 frame (if you buy the listings) wasn’t expected to produce power, but he needed only 470 plate appearances to mash a career-high 16 home runs in his second season in the major leagues. Combine his time in the minor leagues and Odor now has 36 home runs over the past two seasons. Among second basemen with at least 400 plate appearances last year, nobody had a better slugging percentage than Odor’s .465; only Brian Dozier had a higher isolated power mark than Odor. At a position severely lacking in power, Odor is one of the few to flex his muscles. Odor is just 22, and though his size will be limiting, he’s certainly young enough to bulk up and develop even more power. He has a .260 career batting average and is unlikely to get much better than that unless he can improve on his 16.9-percent strikeout rate. Still, the total package competes well with any second baseman in the league.

Considering Odor played 114 games of above-replacement-level baseball at an up-the-middle position as a 20-year-old, his 2014 season was quite impressive. He started at Double-A Frisco, but was called up five weeks into the season because the team was lacking a legitimate second baseman with Jurickson Profar out for the season with a partial tear in his shoulder. Odor did alright for himself, slashing .259/.297/.402 with nine home runs and four steals in 417 plate appearances. There is no denying he was rushed to the majors, but the fact that Odor was able to hold his own against big-league pitching as the youngest player in MLB for much of the season should do wonders for his development. Texas will have a tough decision to make if Profar comes to camp close to healthy, as Odor has marginally outperformed Profar as a big leaguer to this point. If Odor opens the season as an everyday player, he will be a prime breakout candidate.

Odor rocketed all the way to Double-A Frisco as a 19-year-old, slashing .306/.354/.530 in 30 games after a nice season at High-A Myrtle Beach (.305/.369/.454 in 100 games). He's a top fantasy prospect at second base as a result, and the trade of Ian Kinsler this winter to Detroit removed one obstacle in Odor's way. He still has Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus ahead of him up the middle, so questions remain as to whether his future is with Texas or another team. He has All-Star upside regardless of what team he plays for, and could be as ready for a full-time role as early as 2015.

Odor made his pro debut in the short-season Northern League, hitting .262/.323/.352.