DFS Soccer: DraftKings Showdown Preview for Borussia Dortmund vs. PSG

DFS Soccer: DraftKings Showdown Preview for Borussia Dortmund vs. PSG

This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.

PSG are a 39-percent away favorite with an implied goal total just above 1.60. Despite being at home, Borussia Dortmund are the underdog with a 1.52 implied goal total and roughly 34-percent chance to win, according to the odds.

3:00 pm: Borussia Dortmund vs. Paris Saint-Germain

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Showdown DFS Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL Cheat Sheet

BORUSSIA DORTMUND TEAM PREVIEW

Dortmund primarily play a standard 4-2-3-1 formation. Bookmakers have this matchup as essentially a pick 'em and Dortmund have a 1.52 implied goal total and are playing at home. Over the weekend, they played a strong XI against RB Leipzig in an effort to fight for fourth place and a UCL spot next season. They lost 4-1 while key players Fullkrug, Brandt and Sancho all played 90 minutes.

PlayerDK Pos.Flex SalaryNotes
Gregor KobelGK$5,600 
Ian MaatsenD$5,200Maatsen has some solid attacking chops but is inconsistent. I think he is a good GPP option. 
Nico SchlotterbeckD$3,400Outside of 1-0 constructions I'd prefer Can to the Dortmund center-backs in this price range.
Mats HummelsD$3,800 
Julian RyersonD$4,200In two matches against Atletico, Ryerson logged six crosses, one shot, one shot assisted, and five tackles won. He's fine but not spectacular at this price.
Marcel SabitzerM$7,200I'm a big Sabitzer fan, but this is an expensive price if he does not take set pieces.
Emre CanM$3,200I wouldn't expect

PSG are a 39-percent away favorite with an implied goal total just above 1.60. Despite being at home, Borussia Dortmund are the underdog with a 1.52 implied goal total and roughly 34-percent chance to win, according to the odds.

3:00 pm: Borussia Dortmund vs. Paris Saint-Germain

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Showdown DFS Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL Cheat Sheet

BORUSSIA DORTMUND TEAM PREVIEW

Dortmund primarily play a standard 4-2-3-1 formation. Bookmakers have this matchup as essentially a pick 'em and Dortmund have a 1.52 implied goal total and are playing at home. Over the weekend, they played a strong XI against RB Leipzig in an effort to fight for fourth place and a UCL spot next season. They lost 4-1 while key players Fullkrug, Brandt and Sancho all played 90 minutes.

PlayerDK Pos.Flex SalaryNotes
Gregor KobelGK$5,600 
Ian MaatsenD$5,200Maatsen has some solid attacking chops but is inconsistent. I think he is a good GPP option. 
Nico SchlotterbeckD$3,400Outside of 1-0 constructions I'd prefer Can to the Dortmund center-backs in this price range.
Mats HummelsD$3,800 
Julian RyersonD$4,200In two matches against Atletico, Ryerson logged six crosses, one shot, one shot assisted, and five tackles won. He's fine but not spectacular at this price.
Marcel SabitzerM$7,200I'm a big Sabitzer fan, but this is an expensive price if he does not take set pieces.
Emre CanM$3,200I wouldn't expect much from Can, but he is certainly cheap.
Karim AdeyemiM/F$7,400Adeyemi was a half-time substitute over the weekend. His gamelogs suggest a pre-70 minute sub is likely. 
Julian BrandtM$9,200Typically, Brandt takes most of Dortmund's set pieces. At the very least, I expect him to be on free kicks and right-sided corners. 
Jadon SanchoM/F$7,000Sancho has taken left-sided corners in games where Dortmund have been pushing or Brandt has been subbed off. He averages 7.9 floor points over his last five starts. 
Niclas FullkrugF$8,400If he is on the pitch, I believe Fullkrug is the primary penalty taker.

Brandt should take most of the set pieces for Dortmund, but Sancho has contributed some left-sided corners recently. I'm a little bit concerned about minutes for Brandt, who has been subbed early several times this season. On the other hand, he has a great role and this is the most important match of the season for Dortmund. 

PSG Team Preview

PSG have primarily stuck with a 4-3-3 formation throughout the season, though sometimes their shape changes depending on how many attacking players they start. They have a healthy implied goal total of 1.70 as slight away favorites at Dortmund. 

PlayerDK Pos.Flex SalaryNotes
Gianluigi DonnarummaGK$6,000 
Nuno MendesD$4,400Mendes is finally getting back into gear after a long injury spell. I think he is a great play with upside at this price.
Lucas HernandezD$3,600As mentioned above, I prefer punting with central midfielders than defenders unless I am playing for the clean sheet bonus.
MarquinhosD$3,000It might be useful that Marquinhos is available at the minimum price for certain lineup constructions.
Achraf HakimiD$6,600Hakimi is in form and a great play. He has at least 10 floor points over his last three starts with a goal and two assists. 
VitinhaM$7,800Vitinha is a tough player to get right in DFS, but without set pieces I think he is too expensive and more of a contrarian GPP option.
Fabian RuizM$5,000 
Warren Zaire-EmeryM$4,000Ruiz and Zaire-Emery are similar options to me and I prefer the $1,000 savings I get from Zaire-Emery.
Bradley BarcolaF$6,800Barcola is a good GPP option, but he typically does not play more than 70 minutes.
Ousmane DembeleM/F$10,400Dembele only played the first half over the weekend, but he played at least 88 minutes in his previous three starts. 
Kylian MbappeF$12,400Mbappe is expensive, but he has a good floor based on shots and his anytime goalscoring odds are -120.

PSG players should be well rested for this match, as they've been in cruise control in Ligue 1 for a while. Over the weekend, Marco Asensio ($8,200) started and played 45 minutes, while Kang-in Lee ($8,600) subbed on for him and finished the match. I wouldn't be surprised if either player starts. If they do, that's a slight downgrade for Dembele. Lee, in particular, would at least split set pieces if he starts. 

CASH-GAME STRATEGY

If these are the starting formations, I'd like to captain Dembele. He's expensive but would take most of the set pieces and I'd expect him to play most of the match. If the PSG lineup is different and creates a more complicated set-piece situation, I'd be fine captaining Brandt instead. He takes most of their set pieces and it's a home match where Dortmund will be attacking. I think it's fine to prefer Brandt straight up over Dembele regardless of formation.

Mbappe is expensive, but he's PSG's most important player, takes penalties and has a good floor. I'm likely to play a studs-and-duds type of lineup in order to fit him into one of my flex positions. 

I think Hakimi is a good point-per-dollar value at his price. He has occasionally chipped in with a set piece, but he is in great form with respect to contributing goals. Even better, he's averaged 10 floor points in his past five starts in league play.

I'm willing to play just about anyone in my final two lineup spots if I'm able to get the top plays I mentioned above. Marquinhos has the minimum price and Emre Can is fine at $3,200. If you have the salary available, Ryerson and Nuno Mendes look like good options for their price.

TOURNAMENT STRATEGY

If cash teams end up looking how I outlined above, I think the Dortmund attackers in the $7,000 range have a chance of getting overlooked. If Mbappe doesn't score a goal, or if Dembele only has a floor of 14-ish points or gets subbed off early, I don't think either will be in winning tournament lineups at this price. I think you should be willing to fade one of them in larger field tournaments.

If you take this route with your lineups, I think you have a lot of options. If you want to script some lineups where Dortmund win this match, I think Fullkrug and Adeyemi will have low rostership. Sancho has been a play in recent UCL slates and he is a solid option, too. He'll take some set pieces if Brandt is subbed early. I think Dortmund players are great tournament options since they will want to be aggressive and take a lead to Paris for the second leg. 

On the PSG side, I think Vitinha profiles as a pay-up-to-be-contrarian option. In the lineup projected above, I think he will venture forward at times and he has averaged over eight floor points in his last 10 starts. 

Lineup Ideas (GPP only)

Hakimi CPT - Brandt - Mbappe: I think Hakimi is a great play in this spot and you can essentially play whatever game script and combination of plays you want if you choose him as a captain. He has a ceiling that can keep up with premium options. 

Brandt CPT - Kobel - Dembele: I think Mbappe will still be a popular play despite his massive price, so in larger field GPPs, I think it's an interesting idea to make lineups leveraged against PSG struggling and Mbappe not scoring a goal. With this type of construction, you can fit whatever mid-priced Dortmund attacking pieces you want. 

Mbappe CPT - Mendes - Hakimi: Mbappe's price is very expensive and that should keep his captain rostership in check. In the event Mbappe either scores a penalty or receives an assist from a less expensive PSG player, I think expensive options like Dembele are less likely to be in the winning lineup. This type of lineup can make sense if you are looking for a Dortmund goalscorer on the other side or want to play a 1-0 script with PSG.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jack Burkart
Jack covers fantasy soccer for RotoWire and has twice won the FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year award (2022 & '23). He is a Minnesota Loons fan and long-suffering Tottenham Hotspur supporter.
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