NASCAR Draft Kit: 2016 Xfinity Series Driver Rankings

NASCAR Draft Kit: 2016 Xfinity Series Driver Rankings

This article is part of our NASCAR Draft Kit series.

1. Kyle Busch/Denny Hamlin - No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota - Despite only making 15 starts last season, Busch still piled up 6 victories and 11 Top-5 finishes across those starts. Only the injuries he received at Daytona to kick off the 2015 season slowed him down. That level of performance still makes the No. 18 JGR Toyota team the one to beat each weekend in the Xfinity Series. At this point, it's not clear who will share this ride with Busch beyond Hamlin, but it really doesn't matter that much. Any of the Joe Gibbs Racing Cup stars or any of their lower development drivers are dangerous behind the wheel of this team's car. Busch alone has averaged 8+ wins per season over the last three years with this dominant race team.

2. Brad Keselowski/Ryan Blaney/Joey Logano -
No. 22 Penske Racing Ford - This team with its multi-driver lineup has been nothing short of dominant over the past three seasons of Xfinity Series racing. In those three seasons Penske has piled up 28 victories, the vast majority coming with this No. 22 Ford team. 14 of those wins have come from just Keselowski alone. When teamed with Logano for most of the other starts, this team is a force to be reckoned with any week. Plans nor driver lineups have not been announced. However, if we look to the recent past we can expect roughly 10 starts each for Keselowski and Logano, with the bulk of the

1. Kyle Busch/Denny Hamlin - No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota - Despite only making 15 starts last season, Busch still piled up 6 victories and 11 Top-5 finishes across those starts. Only the injuries he received at Daytona to kick off the 2015 season slowed him down. That level of performance still makes the No. 18 JGR Toyota team the one to beat each weekend in the Xfinity Series. At this point, it's not clear who will share this ride with Busch beyond Hamlin, but it really doesn't matter that much. Any of the Joe Gibbs Racing Cup stars or any of their lower development drivers are dangerous behind the wheel of this team's car. Busch alone has averaged 8+ wins per season over the last three years with this dominant race team.

2. Brad Keselowski/Ryan Blaney/Joey Logano -
No. 22 Penske Racing Ford - This team with its multi-driver lineup has been nothing short of dominant over the past three seasons of Xfinity Series racing. In those three seasons Penske has piled up 28 victories, the vast majority coming with this No. 22 Ford team. 14 of those wins have come from just Keselowski alone. When teamed with Logano for most of the other starts, this team is a force to be reckoned with any week. Plans nor driver lineups have not been announced. However, if we look to the recent past we can expect roughly 10 starts each for Keselowski and Logano, with the bulk of the others going to Blaney and other drivers. In recent years Alex Tagliani has done a superb job racing for this team on the road circuits of the Xfinity Series.

3. Erik Jones -
No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota - The Joe Gibbs Racing wunderkind is poised for a championship run in this series in 2016. Jones nabbed the Camping World Truck Series crown last year and piled up five-combined victories between Xfinity and the truck series in 2015. He'll take over the No. 20 Toyota full-time, which was raced by a multi-driver lineup last season. Jones made just 23 starts last season for this team and the No. 54 JGR team and compiled some impressive numbers. He raked in 13 Top-5 and 17 Top-10 finishes in addition to his two wins. When projected over a full season, it indicates Jones will be one of the top contenders to win the Xfinity Series championship this year.

4. Elliott Sadler -
No. 1 JR Motorsports Chevrolet - The 20-year veteran makes the jump from Roush Fenway Racing to JR Motorsports in 2016. The move should do Sadler tons of good. He struggled last year at Roush and posted his worst numbers in the last five seasons of Xfinity Series racing. Sadler is just two years removed from a one-win, 25 Top-10 season at Joe Gibbs Racing, so we know the veteran still has plenty of good racing left in him. Sadler takes over the No. 9 Chevrolet that Chase Elliott used so well the last two years and the car number changes to the No. 1. We should see a return to victory lane in the upcoming season, and 20-plus Top-10 finishes with an outside run at the championship.

5. Kevin Harvick/Kasey Kahne/Dale Earnhardt Jr./Alex Bowman/Chase Elliott -
No. 88 JR Motorsports Chevrolet - This team was one of the more successful multi-driver lineups in the Xfinity Series last year. Harvick grabbed two wins for the team, and the other drivers all combined to nab 19 Top-10 finishes in the No. 88 Chevrolet last season. The lineup and starts should remain much the same in 2016, but gone is Ben Rhodes and Josh Berry, and in are Bowman and Elliott. The strong only get stronger in this sense. With this driver lineup of experience and youthful skill, we expect more wins in the upcoming season and more Top 10's. Earnhardt failed to reach victory lane in his four starts last year, and that should certainly change this year.

6. Ty Dillon -
No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet - Dillon will return for his third full season in the Xfinity Series in 2016. The 23-year-old RCR driver has compiled some nice stats over his first two years of racing in this series. Dillon nabbed a victory in 2014, and he's combined to claim 49 Top-10 finishes over the last two seasons. It all added up to a great third-place finish in the final driver standings of 2015, but still short of the goal. Dillon will set out with crew chief, Nick Harrison, once again in pursuit of this series' championship. It will be a tough battle with the likes of veteran Elliott Sadler and up-and-comers Erik Jones and Daniel Suarez around, but Dillon will make a strong bid.

7. Daniel Suarez -
No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota - The 2015 Rookie of the Year in this racing series returns to up the ante. Suarez didn't break into victory lane in his rookie year, but he steadily progressed as the season wore on and put up some very good numbers. The first-full season of racing in the Xfinity Series yielded three pole positions and 18 Top-10 finishes for the driver of the No. 19 Toyota. Suarez ended last year with a flurry of six-straight Top-10 finishes to serve notice he would be a power in the upcoming season. The young driver gets a change in crew chiefs this season with Scott Graves taking over, but that should be of little concern. Suarez was really figuring these Xfinity cars out over the stretch run of last season and that learning curve should continue upward into 2016.

8. Justin Allgaier -
No. 7 JR Motorsports Chevrolet - Allgaier moves back to the Xfinity Series after a brief, two-season cup of coffee in the Sprint Cup Series. This young driver struggled at NASCAR's top level with a small race team, but he should rebound nicely with JRM in 2016. Allgaier takes over the strong No. 7 Chevrolet that Regan Smith piloted the last three years. Over that span Smith claimed five wins and 71 Top-10 finishes and had driver standings finishes of third, second and fourth place. This has been a championship-contending team under Smith's watch. We don't expect Allgaier to elevate to that level of performance right away. Instead he'll need a little time to develop chemistry with his new crew chief and team. However, a one-win, 18-to-20 Top-10 finish campaign is not out of the question.

9. Darrell Wallace Jr. -
No. 6 Roush Fenway Racing Ford - Wallace didn't have quite the season we expected for his first full-time effort in the Xfinity Series last year. He claimed no wins and only 14 Top-10 finishes in a season that lacked a lot of week-to-week consistency. Wallace only led 85 total laps during his rookie campaign, so it seemed this team lacked some speed when compared to others. The young driver will get a new crew chief in season two. Matt Puccia takes over atop the No. 6 team's war wagon and will guide Wallace to hopefully a better season in 2016. While victories are probably a slim hope at this point, we would expect to see a generous increase in Top-5 and Top-10 finishes in the upcoming campaign.

10. Brandon Jones -
No. 33 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet - The Richard Childress Racing No. 33 team was much stronger last season that anticipated. Austin Dillon made just 20 starts for this team and claimed four dominant wins. Paul Menard claimed another victory in his eight starts in the No. 33 Chevrolet. Combined, Dillon, Menard and Jones racked up five wins and 24 Top-10 finishes last season. Jones will take over this strong team full-time in the upcoming season. He'll have guidance from veteran crew chief Mike Hillman Jr. and lots of support. The 18-year-old registered eight Top-10 finishes in a part-time truck series slate last season, so the talent is definitely there. However, his scant five starts of Xfinity Series experience from last season point to a steep learning curve in the coming year, but filled with bright spots along the way.

11. Brendan Gaughan -
No. 62 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet - While the 40-year-old driver didn't pick up any wins last season, Gaughan did have a career-best season for Top 10's. He nabbed 14 of them en route to a respectable ninth-place finish in the final driver standings. The race-winning touch of 2014 was missing, but consistency and better performances across the board marked the No. 62 RCR team's 2015 season. Gaughan will return this year and continue those efforts with crew chief Shane Wilson. While this driver and team has likely hit a ceiling in terms of performance, we can still expect a Top-10 finish in the driver standings and a middle-teens effort in Top-10 finishes.

12. Kyle Larson/Brennan Poole -
No. 42 HScott Motorsports with Chip Ganassi Chevrolet - This team's plans have not been announced, but we'd imagine a similar schedule and driver lineup as last year for the upcoming season. Larson and Poole split this team with Justin Marks in 2015 and put up one win (Larson) and 12 Top-10 finishes. They fell somewhat short of expectations, but that's likely due to the youthful nature of the driver lineup. Mike Shiplett should return at crew chief and guide this team in 2016, probably to some better performances. Larson and Poole only have a combined 92 starts of experience in this racing series, so they should continue to improve going forward.

13. Paul Menard/Austin Dillon -
No. 2 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet - This was the team that Brian Scott raced for last season in the Xfinity Series. Under Scott's guidance the team racked up 41 Top-10 finishes over the last two seasons and finished fourth- and eighth-place in the driver standings respectively. Menard will drive a handful of races for the team with Menard's sponsorship and Dillon should fill out most of the rest of the schedule under Rheem sponsorship. Unknown drivers would pilot the No. 2 Chevrolet in a very limited number of events. The overall picture should be very competitive and consistent despite the driver rotation.

14. Ryan Reed -
No. 16 Roush Fenway Racing Ford - The young driver and primary sponsor American Diabetes Association will return for another season in 2016. Reed and the No. 16 team acclaimed all sorts of fame and attention when they won the season-opening Daytona race last year, however, it would be the only time they'd visit the Top 10 all season long in what was a disappointing campaign. They would rack up 17 Top-15 finishes over the course of 2015, but just lack the speed and consistency to push into the Top 10 any given week. Reed hopes that will change in the coming season and with the help of new crew chief, Phil Gould, it may very well. With Chris Buescher moving onto the Cup Series, more time and attention will be focused on Reed's success at Roush Fenway Racing.

15. Ross Chastain -
No. 4 JD Motorsports Chevrolet - Chastain did so surprisingly well in his first full season of Xfinity Series racing last year that JD Motorsports has invited him back to pilot the No. 4 Chevrolet once again. The 22-year-old Floridian racked up four Top-10 finishes and finished 15th in the driver standings last season. Chastain had some issues with posting five DNF's during the campaign, but generally he finished most races on the lead lap. Super speedway and short track events seemed to be the team's strength and should be once again in 2016. Gary Cogswell returns as crew chief to guide this young driver once again, so we expect to see some growth and improvement this season.

16. Landon Cassill -
No. 01 JD Motorsports Chevrolet - Plans have not been announced for this driver and team, but it is assumed that Cassill will be returning to JDM's No. 01 Chevrolet for another full season. He's a six-year veteran of the Sprint Cup Series and eight-year veteran in the Xfinity Series. So Cassill has well over 300 starts of experience between these two levels of NASCAR. In a 29-start slate last season, he claimed a pair of Top-10 finishes and 15 Top-20 finishes. Good to be sure, but a bit short of expectations for such an experienced driver with this team. Cassill also raced a 36-event Cup schedule last year and it could be that he was just fatigued by the full plate. Assuming he returns to this ride, we'd like to see double the Top 10's and more consistency from Cassill in the coming year.

17. Ryan Sieg -
No. 39 RSS Racing Chevrolet - This small race team showed steady improvement in 2015. Sieg only nabbed one Top-10 finish, but he improved his average starting position by 2.5 spots and his average finish improved by one spot to 19.1 over what he recorded in 2014. The result was 10 Top-15 and 23 Top-20 finishes. That's a lot of racing and finishing on the lead lap for a small, single-car team. Sieg rolled home to a career-best 11th-place finish in last year's driver's standings. We expect the 28-year-old driver to continue his upward trajectory, but slowing due to the neighborhood he's entering. A few of those borderline Top 10's should become Top-10 finishes in 2016.

18. Dakoda Armstrong -
No. 28 JGL Racing Toyota - Armstrong jumps from Richard Petty Motorsports to the JGL team in 2016. The 23-year-old driver had a bit of a down season with the No. 43 team and is looking for a fresh start in the No. 28 Toyota. J.J. Yeley piloted this car last season to a respectable 12th-place finish in the standings and 22 Top-20 finishes. With only three DNF's the equipment proved rather durable. Steven Lane comes on board to take over the crew chief responsibilities for Armstrong, and the two will need to form a bond quickly. Technical support and engines will continue to come from TRD and Joe Gibbs Racing, making this small two-car operation more competitive than most in this range of the driver field.

19. Jeremy Clements -
No. 51 Jeremy Clements Racing Chevrolet - The 10-season veteran should be back for another full slate in 2016. His family-owned No. 51 Chevrolet has been a steady performer over the last five seasons of full-time racing in this division of NASCAR. Over that span Clements has gradually improved his average starting position from 28.0 to 21.7 and his average finishing position from 23.6 to 19.8 last season (a career-best). While he only registered one Top-10 finish, he piled up the Top 20 performances. The driver of this small team posted 20 Top-20 finishes as opposed to only two DNF's. The No. 51 team is running at the end of races and usually not far off the lead lap. That consistency should continue in the upcoming season, but they've likely hit the ceiling coming in at 14th in the driver standings last year.

20. David Starr -
No. 44 Tri Star Motorsports Toyota - Starr is entering the last season of a three-year contract with Tri Star Motorsports. He is a 16-season veteran of the Camping World Truck Series and 10-season vet of the Xfinity Series. Between the two divisions of NASCAR, he's racked up close to 400 starts of experience. While most of his accomplishments and accolades are in the truck series, he's just now transitioning into full-time in the Xfinity Series at the age of 47. Last season Starr only pulled in one Top-10 finish (Daytona) and 11 Top-20 finishes. He'll be paired with crew chief Greg Conner once again in the upcoming season and they'll attempt to push the bar higher. It would seem that Starr's best years of racing a fading in the rear view mirror and he's just managing to be somewhat competitive with this team at this point.

21. Blake Koch -
No. 8 Tri Star Motorsports Toyota - Koch enters 2016 as he kicks off his sixth full-season of competition in the Xfinity Series. He'll continue with Tri Star's No. 8 team that he raced with last year. After years of start-and-park racing, Koch finally got to show what he can do for full events in 2015. The 30-year-old Floridian posted a career-best 24.5 average finish and eight Top-20 finishes. Small steps to be sure, but we have to remember that this was his first full season of full-on racing since joining Tri Star. Even though TSM is a multi-car stable, they are a bit challenged in the equipment department when compared to other multi-car teams. That will be Koch's biggest handicap this season. He'll be challenged to inch his average starting and finishing positions a bit higher in the coming campaign.

22. Joey Gase -
No. 52 Jimmy Means Racing Chevrolet - Gase returns to the No. 52 Chevrolet again this year. The 22-year-old turned in his best effort last year during just his second full season of Xfinity Series racing. He qualified for all 33 events and even posted his first-career Top-5 finish, which came in the spring Talladega race. He improved his DNF's from 11 the previous year to just six. That helped his average finish climb from 29.4 to 27.5. That is some significant improvement from Gase and a sign of more competitive racing. However, once again Top-20 finishes were hard to come by last season. We expect only very little improvement in 2016, which can only be measured in inches. Gase has a lot of upward potential, but it's limited by this small team's resources and lack of funding.

23. Aric Almirola/TBD -
No. 98 Biagi-Denbeste Racing Ford - While only a part-time ride, this team has shown some real pop and performance potential in their part-time slate the last two seasons. NASCAR veteran, Aric Almirola, made nine starts with this team and grabbed three Top-10 finishes in those events. He teamed with Sam Hornish Jr. and Ryan Truex to make 16 starts total or roughly half the schedule. The conglomerate garnered a respectable 18.3 average finish. While no plans or driver lineup have been announced, we expect a similar slate and driver lineup for 2016. When on the track this small team can be very competitive, especially when Almirola is behind the wheel.

24. Ryan Blaney/Joey Logano -
No. 12 Penske Racing Ford - This team doesn't get out of the Penske shop often, but when they do they tend to turn heads. Logano made only one start with this team in 2015, which was a decrease from the five starts the team had in 2014. However, it was a big victory from the pole position in the Watkins Glen road race. It's hard to forecast from year-to-year how much the No. 12 team will run, but they tend to average a handful of starts. Whenever the No. 12 Ford is on the entry list, they are a great one-off start in most fantasy racing leagues. The driver lineup is superb and the equipment is on par with what's in the No. 22 Penske hotrod.

25. John Wes Townley/Dylan Lupton -
No. 25 Athenian Motorsports Chevrolet - This team made 28 of the 33 events, with some limited success. Townley and Lupton split the starts 18/8 with two more thrown in for Alex Bowman. Lupton managed the team's only Top-10 finish (Mid-Ohio), despite only making eight starts. The team also fields an entry in the Camping World Truck Series and over the last year that has become more of their focus than the Xfinity program. Athenian Motorsports will likely be scaling back their starts with the No. 25 Chevrolet in this series, and as a result the impact will be less this season. Due to limited funding and other issues, they won't be a consistent performer each week.

26. Chris Buescher -
No. 60 Roush Fenway Racing Ford - The team of the reigning champion of the Xfinity Series gets a big downgrade in 2016. Buescher is off to race full-time in the Sprint Cup Series this year in pursuit of Rookie of the Year. That leaves the No. 60 Roush Fenway Racing team somewhat in limbo. Without a major sponsor to put on this car and without a full-time driver, the team will likely shift to just part-time competition this season. Buescher hasn't committed, but he could run a handful of races with this team if sponsors sign on. At best we're talking probably five or less starts. If and when Buescher does show up with this team, they'll be very competitive and a Top-10 threat each race. However, they won't be seen much if at all in 2016.

27. Mike Bliss/TBD -
No. 14 Tri Star Motorsports Toyota - This team's plans have not been announced but it is speculated that veteran Bliss may be racing for this team in 2016. The No. 14 Toyota was piloted by Cale Conley during most of last season, and he compiled eight Top-20 finishes in his 30 starts for the team. If Bliss takes over this ride, they will get a veteran of over 350 Xfinity Series starts behind the wheel. He finished last season's final three events for the team, but it was a start-and-park effort to close the year. Hopefully, the money situation and sponsorship improves and this team can race with Bliss competitively for the full season. However, that remains the unknown factor as the 2016 season approaches.

28. Eric McClure -
No. TBD Tri Star Motorsports Toyota - The team's plans have not been announced, but it's expected that McClure will return to Tri Star with his long-time primary sponsor, Hefty/Reynolds Wrap. The 36-year-old driver is nearing the 300-start mark in the Xfinity Series, but to little acclaim or success. McClure started all 33 events last season for this team but only managed 10 Top-25 finishes and a lowly 26.9 average finish for the season. Another year of ups-and-downs lay ahead, but with Hefty/Reynolds Wrap paying the bills, McClure will continue racing at this level of NASCAR until the money dries up.

29. Ray Black Jr. -
No. 07 SS Green Light Racing Chevrolet - After years of competition in the Camping World Truck Series, SS Green Light Racing will make their first full-time foray into the Xfinity Series in 2016. They bring with them young driver Black for this first campaign. The 24-year-old Floridian raced the full truck series schedule for SS GLR in 2015 and finished a respectable 11th in the final driver standings. Jason Miller is expected to be the team's crew chief, and he'll face an uphill battle trying to get the team established and get Black more experience. We don't expect to see the No. 07 Chevrolet among the Top-20 finishers very much in the coming year.

30. Harrison Rhodes -
No. 0 JD Motorsports Chevrolet - Plans have not been announced for this driver and team, but it is assumed that Rhodes will be returning to JDM's No. 0 Chevrolet for a full season or something close to it. The 21-year-old made 28 starts last year, mostly for this No. 0 team. The results were decent early in the season, and Rhodes even grabbed a Top-10 finish at Daytona in the midsummer. However, it slowly transitioned to a start-and-park effort in the second half of 2015 and the young driver posted 12 DNF's for the campaign. If the sponsorship picture with the team could improve, they could competitively race on a more regular basis. However, the team is probably still looking at a shoe-string effort in 2016, which will limit their impact.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Mark Taylor
Taylor is RotoWire's senior NASCAR writer. A nine-time FSWA finalist, Taylor was named the Racing Writer of the Year in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2016 and 2017. He is also a military historian, focused specifically on World War II and the U.S. Navy's efforts in the Pacific.
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