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Drop two (Maybe one of them is Haren)

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Category: Fantasy Baseball
Forum Name: Fantasy Baseball Discussion
Forum Discription: General discussions about baseball and fantasy baseball strategy
Printed Date: 17 Dec 2017 at 11:19am

Topic: Drop two (Maybe one of them is Haren)
Posted By: daswah
Subject: Drop two (Maybe one of them is Haren)
Date Posted: 25 Apr 2013 at 7:34am
My SPs: Gallardo, Scherzer, Samardzija, Kennedy, Detwiler, J. McDonald, E. Jackson, M. Estrada, H. Bailey, and Dan Harn

RP's: Putz, Gregerson, Storen, J. Henderson, and Hanrahan.

Overall, my pitching staff is underperforming.

I can see dropping Haren...I just don't think he's going to offer a great deal this season, or if he does, he won't be consistent. He's had a declining skill set for several years now, and the injury bug seems to be an issue as well.

I can also see dropping Jackson.

Posted By: PennMan
Date Posted: 25 Apr 2013 at 12:32pm
You have some tough choices. Haren isn't the pitcher he was a few years back when he was an ace. Edwin Jackson is in Wrigley Field with a horrible bullpen behind him. I tend to believe Jim Henderson is going to fizzle. Milwaukee's bullpen stinks and Henderson is pitching over his pedigree at this point but you don't have much in the way of closers.

I would probably go with dropping Haren and Jackson if you have to drop two pitchers.

Posted By: NYRED
Date Posted: 25 Apr 2013 at 1:33pm
I would drop haren and gregerson if it came down to it

Posted By: daswah
Date Posted: 25 Apr 2013 at 4:44pm
The only reason I would keep Gregorson is because our league scores holds.  Though, to be honest, it often seems better to either punt on Saves or dropping Gregorson might actually be the better choice, or trading a closer and someone on my DL for an active bat and pick up holds of the wire...
I have Kubel, Heyward, and Zimmerman on the DL...

Posted By: elsicilian
Date Posted: 25 Apr 2013 at 5:37pm
 I would keep Haren over guys like Jackson/Gregerson and even Bailey.  After struggling with back trouble last year, he was actually very good in the second half (3.58 ERA / 1.12 WHIP/ 4.00 K:BB ) his velocity is fine, and his K rate is still good.  I think he'll bounce back once he figures it out ...

Posted By: PennMan
Date Posted: 25 Apr 2013 at 6:18pm
To me I'll take a pitcher on the rise like Bailey over a pitcher on the decline like Haren who may be that way due to something wrong physically going on. Last year Haren had an off year and had a back problem. This year so far he has looked nothing but hitable! 32 hits in 18 innings is ridiculously bad. He could straighten it out or just keep declining. So far 2013 for Haren is making 2012 look like a good year. Something isn't right there. No chance I would dump Bailey ahead of him.

Posted By: elsicilian
Date Posted: 26 Apr 2013 at 10:27am
@PennMan - that's a fair point, and Bailey could well outproduce Haren this year (he's about six years younger and just entering his prime, while Haren is in the downside of his career).  Both guys have some pretty obvious warts right now.  But Dan Haren is still *relatively* young (32), he's supposedly healthy, his average FB velocity (89.4) is much closer to his spectacular 2011 season (89.8) than his forgettable 2012 (88.5).  Meanwhile, he has moved back to the easy league, he had a great second half last year, and he gets to make a lot of starts in Miami, DC, Atlanta, and Queens (where the larger ballparks favor his fly ball tendencies).

You are right that he looks very hittable and he obviously is not usable in fantasy leagues until he makes some adjustments.  But baseball is a game of adjustments, and Dan Haren has consistently shown he's capable of doing it very well, while Homer Bailey has been consistent in nothing but maddening inconsistency.

So personally, if I am rolling the dice on a 4th starter, it's going to be on a proven commodity like Haren who has demonstrable ace-level upside vs. a guy like Bailey who will give you fits even when he's generally pitching well.  To put it another way, if both guys put up back-to-back quality starts, is there any question who you'd take for the third start?

Posted By: blellef10
Date Posted: 26 Apr 2013 at 1:39pm
Bailey has made four starts this year and is averaging better than a K per 9.   To put Haren in the same class at this point is foolish.  Bailey looked good the second part of last year and other than one start @ St. Louis, he has looked pretty filthy so far this year.  Despite that start, his WHIP is 1.16 and his ERA is 3.24.  He may throw an occasional clunker but that is better than waiting for Haren to stop throwing clunkers everytime he takes the mound.  I am in a 16 team H2H league and Haren got dropped. 

Posted By: elsicilian
Date Posted: 26 Apr 2013 at 3:57pm
Actually, I think that drawing definitive conclusions about veteran pitchers three weeks into the season is pretty foolish.  These guys have bodies of work, and they tell a slightly different story.

Bailey started strong last year too, then he imploded in June.  He got back on track in July.   Then he imploded in August.  That's been the pattern his entire career (which has produced ratios of 4.45 ERA / 1.37 WHIP / K:BB 2.30).  When he's good he's great, he's just never been able to stay good for very long.  It's certainly *possible* that this time is different (and it wouldn't be totally surprising to see him take the next step); there's just not any *evidence* to support that yet, so you are really just speculating at this point.

As already discussed, Haren is clearly unusable at the moment, and he should obviously remain benched until he makes whatever adjustments he needs to make.  My point is that he is much more *predictable* than Homer Bailey, with less volatility and at least as much upside (and quite likely more, depending on how severely your scoring system punishes BBs).  Obviously if you need a guy to play right now Bailey is the better choice, but the original question is addressing the last two slots of a ten man pitching staff (so presumably these are both just stashed players).

Posted By: daswah
Date Posted: 26 Apr 2013 at 5:03pm
Both of you have some value points.  While I appreciate Haren's career...he's clearly on the decline.  He's pitched a LOT of innings.  He's spent a lot of time in high pressure innings as well.  And he's clearly not right at the moment.
Bailey's pitching pretty well.  I don't have the bench space, and there's a pretty good chance I can pick him back up in 4-5 days when I can drop a bat for someone coming off the DL and stash Haren back on my bench until he heats up.
But can we all agree that Jackson's a catch and release minnow...

Posted By: elsicilian
Date Posted: 26 Apr 2013 at 6:42pm
Honestly, if you dropped both guys, Bailey would probably get snatched up while Haren would likely be left available, and you could (maybe) reclaim him if/when he shows signs of life.  That might be the best practical solution to your dilemma, but if I had to carry one of them I'd personally prefer Haren.  Good luck!

Posted By: PennMan
Date Posted: 26 Apr 2013 at 10:52pm
We all have our opinions and likes of different players.

It is always interesting to know what others think and feel. To me Haren is the easy dump in the comparison with Bailey at this point. And I'm a fan of Haren's.

Bailey's clearly shown improvement over the last 2 seasons and Haren is in decline. Anything can change but I'll go with the considerable developing trend and a pitcher like Bailey who is 26, has better stuff than Haren and some hitters think he is one of the toughest starters to hit period, and seems to be capable of improving on his last season in multiple categories. There could be a point in the season where Haren looks better but I'm going to go with the odds that Bailey has the better over all numbers from the start of this thread on not to mention the better total season.

Posted By: elsicilian
Date Posted: 27 Apr 2013 at 9:06am
Fair enough, and I won't try to convince you otherwise, but I will explain my rationale.  The thing that stands out about Haren (and it's what has distinguished him as an SP his entire career) is the impeccable control.  Among SPs the single most telling statistic (and the most reliable indicator of success in my opinion) is K:BB ratio.  Simply put, guys who make the ball go where they want it to go tend to excel.  Haren's career K:BB is beyond elite (his career 4.01 ratio trails only Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, and Mariano Rivera among qualifying modern era pitchers, and he's ahead of guys like Greg Maddux, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Bret Saberhagen, et. al.).  He's not as good a pitcher overall as those all-time greats, but his control is every bit as good.

As we all know, Haren is not quite right at the moment (he's just too "hittable" whatever that means) but he's physically fine, his velocity is resurgent, and his control seems as good as ever (15:4 K:BB on the year).  I don't think he's forgotten how to pitch ... he just needs to make some tweak to his approach, pitch sequence, delivery, or something.  Baseball is a game of cat and mouse, and the guys who succeed are the guys who literally change their approach every game to stay one step ahead of the they guys on the other side of the rubber.  Dan Haren has obviously fallen behind the hitters (heck maybe he's even tipping his pitches), but I have confidence that he'll figure it out.  And when he does, I'd rather have a properly functioning, consistently performing Dan Haren than a typical Homer Bailey (whose control is negligible, and who is liable to implode at any moment).

But to each his own ... good luck to all y'all this season!

Posted By: daswah
Date Posted: 03 May 2013 at 8:26pm

So guess who I just picked back up just in time for him to toss 8 vs. ATL...

Posted By: PennMan
Date Posted: 02 Jul 2013 at 6:58pm
Hope you all dumped Haren and for who ever it was a question kept Bailey.

Posted By: mesalex
Date Posted: 04 Jul 2013 at 6:46am
Haren is terrible, Maybe one the worst pitchers in baseball. Kennedy is not the same pitcher he was. I would drop those 2

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