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Gausman's Pick Up Value

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dedmond29 View Drop Down
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  Quote dedmond29 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Gausman's Pick Up Value
    Posted: 25 May 2013 at 6:05am
In one of my standard 5x5 roto leagues, my pitching is a mess (next to last in ERA, WHIP and K's due to a poor k/9).

Gausman was just dropped and I am thinking about picking him up. I have Lester, Garza, Cobb, Kennedy, and waiting on Zach Wheeler (taking up a bench spot) and Dan Hudson (DL spot).

Thinking about dropping Kennedy for Gausman and rolling with Gausman's upside. Thoughts? Note that this is not a keeper league.

Thanks in advance for your perspective
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navyman540 View Drop Down
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  Quote navyman540 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2013 at 11:48am
I would drop Zach Wheeler.  He shouldnt be up for a while.  Kevin Gausman could make a nice impact this year whereas Wheeler is better for a keeper league
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lvtdude View Drop Down
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  Quote lvtdude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2013 at 11:53am
Please post your entire roster. I really doubt you currently only have 4 starters, and not a single hitter worth dropping. 
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lvtdude View Drop Down
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  Quote lvtdude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2013 at 11:54am
Don't drop Wheeler. He'll be up soon. You'll want him, and Gausman.
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dedmond29 View Drop Down
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  Quote dedmond29 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2013 at 3:35pm
Sure (and thanks for the replies)

Hitters: S Perez (C) Freeman (1b) Pedroia (2b) Peralta (SS) Wright (3b) Jennings, A Craig, Trout (OF), Rizzo (UTIl), plus Puig and Rendon I am waiting on too
Thinking this out, I also have Wilhelmsen, Fujikawa, D Hernandez, and Parnell as RPs. Considering dropping Fujikawa
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lvtdude View Drop Down
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  Quote lvtdude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2013 at 4:11pm
I'd easily drop Fujikawa for Gausman.
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LABLUE View Drop Down
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  Quote LABLUE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 May 2013 at 2:21am
Gausman has been average in the minors. Keep Wheeler.
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lvtdude View Drop Down
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  Quote lvtdude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 May 2013 at 8:17am
Average???

Gausman:

46 innings, 49 K, 5 BB (5!!!!), 3.11 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Wheeler: (who I really like, too, by the way...)

48 innings, 49 K, 20 BB,  3.91 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
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dedmond29 View Drop Down
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  Quote dedmond29 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 May 2013 at 10:27am
Picked them both up and hope they do good things for me second half of the season. Thanks for the advice!
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lvtdude View Drop Down
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  Quote lvtdude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 May 2013 at 12:59pm
Michael Wacha had his AAA start canceled today, so a call up is likely coming. If you have room for one more...
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LABLUE View Drop Down
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  Quote LABLUE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 May 2013 at 11:06pm
3+ era in double A. Already a beating in the bigs. 5 IP 4 er's.
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LABLUE View Drop Down
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  Quote LABLUE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 May 2013 at 11:07pm
I am passing on him this time around. Maybe next year.
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lvtdude View Drop Down
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  Quote lvtdude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 8:34am
Originally posted by LABLUE

3+ era in double A. Already a beating in the bigs. 5 IP 4 er's.


You're a harsh critic, Chris. His MLB debut came on the road, against the Blue Jays. Many pitchers would fall short of a quality start under such circumstances. The 3.11 ERA in AA isn't a negative to me.

He allowed 4 runs in his first minor league start and 5 runs in his third. He allowed only 6 runs over his last 5 starts, and had a shutout in his second start. He gave up a homer in his two "bad" starts, and only one since.  Obviously, you can't take the two sub-par starts away, but his ERA over his final 5 games was 1.70, which goes along nicely with his 0.945 WHIP.

The big thing for me is his control and command. He struck out 49 and only walked 5. That's a 9.8 to 1 ratio, and 3 to 1 is considered excellent. The fact that he walked only 5 batters and allowed only 3 homers, while being in the strike zone like that, is amazing.

Lastly, I watched him pitch. He has great stuff, and works low in the zone. And, when he misses his spots, he missed outside the zone, not in the middle of the plate.

I'm sold on the pitcher, and not worried about one game's stats. Do you write off a hitter if he goes 0 for 4 with a walk in his first game? Of course not.
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lvtdude View Drop Down
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  Quote lvtdude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 8:36am
It will be interesting to see how he handles his baptism by fire. After his debut against the Jays, he has a two start week facing the Tigers and Nationals. If he has a decent week against those two teams, I'd consider him a safe start every week afterward.
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Evolsdog View Drop Down
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  Quote Evolsdog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 8:57am
lvt, your comments are making me happy I picked up Gausman in both of my NFBC leagues. 
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lvtdude View Drop Down
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  Quote lvtdude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 9:00am
I'm not the only one excited about his potential. This is from this week's FAAB Factor:

"Kevin Gausman, Orioles – Gausman got the call this week from Double-A Bowie to join the O's rotation. He made his first start against the Blue Jays and showed why scouts have been raving about him since he was drafted last season. His fastball touched the high 90s and he mixed in a change-up and sometimes his slider. He got behind in the count to too many batters and it hurt him, but he didn't give in as he challenged hitters to try and touch his fastball. He figures to be in the rotation for a long time and with his talent level he should be priority number one for all AL owners bidding this week. We're talking about an elite, front of the rotation arm that has the potential to be special. Bid aggressively. This week he'll face the Nationals and Tigers, which should be fun to watch. Mixed: $25; AL: $50."


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lvtdude View Drop Down
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  Quote lvtdude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 9:14am
By the way, if you're looking for a sleeper, who probably won't earn a call-up this season, but would be a surprise to even the savvy fantasy players, check out Braves' prospect Alex Wood.

He was drafted in the second round last season, throws very hard (94-96) from the left side, and has a funky delivery. He had a great debut at A ball last season, and has carried it over to AA. He currently has a 1.26 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 57 K in 57 innings.

He probably won't get the call this year, but surprises do happen. The Braves currently have 5 bullpen arms and 1 rotation arm on the DL. At worst, he's a good stash for deep keeper leagues.
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LABLUE View Drop Down
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  Quote LABLUE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 11:01am
I was already passing on him and expecting him to get hit hard before his big league start. So was happy I passed him in leagues when he was sitting there. I expect more starts like his first one. I expect him to be sent back down after 5 starts or so for another year. He needs to pitch good in AAA before he jumps to the real thing.
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LABLUE View Drop Down
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  Quote LABLUE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 11:05am
I also don't like taking away starts to look at stats. If we take his two best starts away and keep the others then look at his stats also.

Alot of this stuff in fantasy is by hunches also so we will see how it turns out.

Edited by LABLUE - 27 May 2013 at 11:07am
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lvtdude View Drop Down
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  Quote lvtdude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 12:05pm
Originally posted by LABLUE

I also don't like taking away starts to look at stats. If we take his two best starts away and keep the others then look at his stats also.

Alot of this stuff in fantasy is by hunches also so we will see how it turns out.


I don't believe in taking away starts either, and I said, "Obviously, you can't take the two sub-par starts away, but his ERA over his final 5 games was 1.70, which goes along nicely with his 0.945 WHIP."

My rationale for including that was any pitcher, or position player for that matter, should expect some sort of adjustment period when moving up a level. Giving up 9 runs over his first 3 starts, and only 6 over his next 5 says something about his ability to adjust. Besides, we're talking about a guy with a 3.11 ERA, not a 4.70 ERA. It's not like you have to use tricks to make his numbers look good.  They are already good.

There are a lot of people that are very optimistic about Kevin Gausman. There was talk, even before Dylan Bundy's injury, that Gausman may be the better prospect. That's saying something, since Bundy was widely regarded as a top 3, and perhaps the top pitching prospect in baseball.

The only thing that tempers my expectations for Gausman is the division in which he pitches. The AL East isn't as pitcher friendly as the NL West, that's for sure. However, we've seen guys with lesser stuff pitch quite well in this division. Jeremey Hellickson comes to mind. He has been successful despite not having swing and miss stuff like Gausman's. He did show very good command in the minor leagues though, which Gausman possesses, in addition to much better stuff.

Of course, we are talking about an unknown quantity, and won't know how good he is until we have seen several starts. However, if you wait that long to get in on him, you won't have him- someone else will.


Edited by lvtdude - 27 May 2013 at 12:06pm
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