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dhaga View Drop Down
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  Quote dhaga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Keeper Help
    Posted: 01 Mar 2013 at 7:12pm
I have the last pick in the 1st round. In my league you can only keep one player for a maximum of 2 years. My choice is to keep Braun for a second year as my 1st round pick (10th overall), or Cespedes as a 15th round pick with the possibility for keeping him again in that round in 2014.

I'm leaning Braun because he's the #1 overall player to me and there is no way he falls back to me at 10. I could always try to get Cespedes back in the draft. Still, I'm intrigued by the value. What would you do?
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lvtdude View Drop Down
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  Quote lvtdude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2013 at 8:27pm
You have to drop Braun. You'll get a very good player in the first round. The difference between Braun and that pick is far less than the difference between Cespedes and anyone you can hope to get in the 15th.
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thewah63 View Drop Down
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  Quote thewah63 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2013 at 8:37pm
Braun plus your 15th round pick will be so much better than Cespedes and who ever you get in the 1st. Take into consideration that 10 other studs are being taken. So by the time you get to pick 10th there will be 19 studs taken (10 total keepers and the 1st 9 picks). There is no way that Cespedes plus the 20th best player comes close to Brauns value. You will not get a "Very good player in the 1st round".
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lvtdude View Drop Down
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  Quote lvtdude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Mar 2013 at 11:20pm
There will be other first round talent released, thewah63, probably most of it, so there will not be "19 studs taken." Any time I've seen drafts like this, most of the owners keep a late round bargain, not an early round stud. Besides, you're assuming Ryan Braun doesn't get busted for PED's- he probably won't, but he could, and that is worth considering.

You also have to take into consideration the extra year of Cespedes at this value, compared to 1 year of Braun.


Edited by lvtdude - 01 Mar 2013 at 11:27pm
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LABLUE View Drop Down
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  Quote LABLUE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2013 at 2:32am
Keep Cespedes for 15th and get to keep him again next year for another 15th rounder. You don't have to worry about a suspension and you will also get a stud in the first round back. I am sure you wont be the only one keeping a guy for the great value. Cespedes in the 15th blows the value away of Braun in the first.
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dhaga View Drop Down
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  Quote dhaga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2013 at 11:43am
Seeing these posts has me leaning toward Cespedes now. Seems to be a mix of studs and value as keepers so far. Here are some of the other guys who been declared as keepers so far:

Miggy
Trout
McCutcheon
Posey
Adam Jones
Sale

A turn of (for example) Fielder and Upton at 10 and 11 to go with Cespedes at 150 seems as good or better than something like Braun and Fielder/Upton and someone like Josh Reddick at 150.

Other people I've asked about this have been split about 50/50 between the two.
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drdrey View Drop Down
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  Quote drdrey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2013 at 6:57pm
Who Would you keep Michael Morse at 1$ of Aaron Hill at 6$
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dhaga View Drop Down
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  Quote dhaga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2013 at 7:53pm
Response from the Ask An Expert service:

Dear Valued Subscriber,

It's nice value, but you have to go with Braun, who is money in a bank and a steal
at the 10th pick. There will be plenty of opportunities to find Cespedes-like values
in the draft, but none to get Braun.

Good luck,
Kenn Ruby
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kruptdevil View Drop Down
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  Quote kruptdevil Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2013 at 2:08am
It all depends on what kind of players you can get in the first. If you can get another elite player like Kemp, CarGo, Pujols, Votto, or even Harper I would keep Cespedes with your 15th round pick. Cespedes had potential to end up in top 25 and you pair him with another elite player. In the 15th round you are less likely to find a good player to pair with Braun. If the drop off is significant from Braun you should keep him. Use the last few years to see what kind of player you will be able to get.
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lipsgardner View Drop Down
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  Quote lipsgardner Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2013 at 8:19am
I am higher on cespedes than most, so I think he's the clear choice. He is Braun lite, with clear 30-25 potential, possibly more in the HR department.
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astrosfanatic View Drop Down
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  Quote astrosfanatic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2013 at 9:25am
Originally posted by lvtdude

You have to drop Braun. You'll get a very good player in the first round. The difference between Braun and that pick is far less than the difference between Cespedes and anyone you can hope to get in the 15th.



+1 I think Cespedes has room to grow.
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thepearl-673 View Drop Down
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  Quote thepearl-673 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Mar 2013 at 10:03am
If it were my team, I would certainly keep Cespedes. 
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rbasco5 View Drop Down
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  Quote rbasco5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 2013 at 10:27am
No doubt Cespedes in the 15th round is great value, but Braun at #10 is great value also! Don't forget, guys like Encarnacion were taken later than 15th round last year in 12-team leagues and he definitely wasn't a keeper! There are always diamonds in the rough late in drafts, you just have to put in your work. But passing up on a guy like Braun at #10 would be ludacris, of course my opinion. I would never pass up on getting a top-3 fantasy player at #10, that is how you win leagues--by having top talent somehow fall through the cracks.
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LABLUE View Drop Down
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  Quote LABLUE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 2013 at 12:06pm
You would only be getting Braun about 7 picks higher then his real value. You are getting Cespedes 120 picks higher then his real value. Plus people keep forgetting he can keep Cespedes again next year at this value and would have to drop Braun next year for nothing.
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lvtdude View Drop Down
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  Quote lvtdude Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Mar 2013 at 12:09pm
What Blue said. 
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