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astrosfanatic View Drop Down
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  Quote astrosfanatic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: New Idea
    Posted: 19 Jan 2013 at 7:12am
I just got a new idea. It is probably not new to most fantasy folk around here, but it is new to me. I am trying to find different ways to evaluate players to help determine their draft rankings. I normally take projections from numerous sources (Bill James, Rotowire, fantasy magazines, various online sources, my own guestimates) and then set up my draft board. This has worked well for me in the past, but i want to try and find new ways to evaluate players to determine their overall worth when it comes to a certain draft order.


So what i am going to do is take the first 25 players that i deem roster-able for each position (50 for OF and SP) and put their Bill James projections into an Excel spreadsheet. Then I will average each 5x5 scoring category to find the mean. That will tell me what the "average" player at that position is expected to produce. IT will give me a baseline for what i am looking for. If i see that a guy is above average in multiple categories, it might make him more valuable than a guy who is elite in 1 and average to below in the rest.

I don't know if this will be helpful or not, but i am going to do it. Worst-case scenario is it gets the top players at each position in an organizable spreadsheet for me to view all together.

Any thoughts??? I am not crazy about using Bill James, as i think most of his predictions are optimistic, but his predictions are easy to find and use.

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astrosfanatic View Drop Down
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  Quote astrosfanatic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2013 at 7:58am
each player gets a (+/-) value at each category based on their distance from the mean, and then you find the sum of those values to give an overall value. Then rank them that way....I am going to try that first

Edited by astrosfanatic - 19 Jan 2013 at 7:59am
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LABLUE View Drop Down
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  Quote LABLUE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2013 at 8:04am
I have read some do this. I sort of do this but off the top of my head. I do all my own projections and rankings. Then I rank them how I like. Then I put them in tiers for each position. So I might have 5 1b in tier one. Then 8 in tier two. I do like to look at others ranking and talk with you guys here on things but I sill always go with what I think over others. Even if 50 so called experts say they like player A over player B I will still go player B if I think he is better.
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astrosfanatic View Drop Down
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  Quote astrosfanatic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2013 at 8:13am
Oh i definitely agree. I will always trust my gut over numbers or others predictions. As much as we like to think that the stats are the determining factors in a players future success, there is always the human factor that has to be determined in as well. Injuries and proneness to slumps are things that will never be factored by computers listing projections. Most of these analysts use computers to generate projections and then give an eye test to check for reasonableness. Doesn't always result in the best projections.

Edited by astrosfanatic - 19 Jan 2013 at 8:14am
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LABLUE View Drop Down
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  Quote LABLUE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2013 at 8:29am
Projections are updated on this site, cbs, rotochamps if you are looking for some.
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astrosfanatic View Drop Down
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  Quote astrosfanatic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2013 at 9:03am
I've already done this for Catchers and Outfielders. Interesting results

Top 5 Catchers:

1. Posey
2. Mauer
3. Santana
4. J. Montero
5. Perez

I guess this system leans very heavily towards the more balanced players. So i don't know if it will work for making draft boards.

I don't know. My brain is racing a million miles an hour trying to understand the data that i am creating.
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copemoney View Drop Down
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  Quote copemoney Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2013 at 9:28am
Originally posted by LABLUE

I have read some do this. I sort of do this but off the top of my head. I do all my own projections and rankings. Then I rank them how I like. Then I put them in tiers for each position. So I might have 5 1b in tier one. Then 8 in tier two. I do like to look at others ranking and talk with you guys here on things but I sill always go with what I think over others. Even if 50 so called experts say they like player A over player B I will still go player B if I think he is better.


I tier them as well but in dollar values. This way, when a guy gets called, I know how many of those guys are left plus the max amount I want to pay for them.

AF- this looks like good idea, will be interested to see how it turns out
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astrosfanatic View Drop Down
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  Quote astrosfanatic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2013 at 9:32am
it is blowing my mind right now. Just finished 1B. Did you know according to the projections an average 1B will put up 28 HR/ 82 R/ 95 RBI/ .277 BA? uhhhhh, that's crazy.
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astrosfanatic View Drop Down
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  Quote astrosfanatic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2013 at 10:20am
I am finding that this system penalizes guys who have poor batting averages. Curtis Granderson comes in at 3 because of a -35 value in batting average. There's no way a guy like De Aza (9) is more valuable than Granderson. However, if you are looking for a balanced player, De Aza isn't a bad fit. His low RBI totals are balanced by his high average, and his low HR totals are balanced by his high SB numbers. And all the runs he scores are gravy.
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negan50 View Drop Down
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  Quote negan50 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2013 at 3:56pm
Your system reminds me of Baseball Monster. They value and compare categories but I don't know the criteria. No one mentioned Monster...any love here for those guys?
I see that NFBC is starting to publish ADP numbers for this year. Seems like that crowd would generate pretty good numbers given the level and commitment of the players. Thoughts?
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astrosfanatic View Drop Down
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  Quote astrosfanatic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2013 at 4:04pm
I've never done Baseball Monster before. I imagine NFBC would require some sort of subscription for access to those ADP numbers?
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negan50 View Drop Down
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  Quote negan50 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jan 2013 at 4:23pm
I"m sure I have to pay for a slot to enter mocks and be current but they are posting numbers in Excel right here on Rotowire under Blogs. I've been looking at them to help with my draft choices this week. They post the trends for each player from past couple of weeks. Fairly small sample but I agree with idea that they might be the best look right now as these are generally serious money and pride players. I am glad to have gotten opportunity join y'all in this Yahoo draft as I getting a glimpse of the time and energy you devote to the craft. I expect to learn a thing or two....hope the lesons are not to painful.
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astrosfanatic View Drop Down
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  Quote astrosfanatic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Jan 2013 at 3:30am
     Player     TOTAL
1     Buster Posey     110
2     Joe Mauer     76
3     Carlos Santana     51
4     Jesus Montero     36
5     Salvador Perez     34
6     Miguel Montero     22
7     Yadier Molina     20
8     Matt Wieters     19
9     Jonathan Lucroy     18
10     Brian McCann     18
11     Mike Napoli     8
12     Wilin Rosario     6
13     Alex Avila     -10
14     A.J. Pierzynski     -14
15     Ryan Doumit     -15
16     John Jaso     -22
17     Carlos Ruiz     -35
18     J.P. Arencibia     -44
19     Jarrod Saltalamacchia     -53
20     A.J. Ellis     -64
21     Welington Castillo     -66
22     Tyler Flowers     -96


I like these results for catcher for a few reasons:

1) It shows how deep the Catcher position really is this year. 12 guys have a positive value.

2) Yadier Molina is not the 3rd best catcher. He is good! But his FB/HR% was nearly triple what it has been historically for him. He has to regress there significantly.

3) Buster Posey is in his own class. Mauer is close, but he is still a significant margin away
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