Matchup Edge: Pats Bounce Back

Baltimore (1-0) vs. Cleveland (0-1)

Open: 41 O/U, BAL -7.5
Press time: 39 O/U, BAL -8

Either Vegas expects DeShone Kizer to turn the ball over and give the Baltimore offense short fields, or it expects the Browns run defense to look much worse than it did against Le'Veon Bell. Or perhaps some combination. Any of those three outcomes seems plausible enough.

As much as I found Kizer's first start promising, facing Baltimore on the road is a lot tougher than facing Pittsburgh at home. I do worry about him imploding in this setting, though the Cleveland offensive line should at least protect him much better against the Ravens than the Bengals line did Andy Dalton in Week 1. Since I am fretting over Kizer, though, I'm pretty much out on his pass-catching options, of which Corey Coleman is the only vaguely interesting one right now.

I thought Isaiah Crowell looked good last week, and I've always been a fan of Duke Johnson, but it's hard to find hope for either in this matchup.

For Baltimore, a couple useful options should emerge. I doubt Joe Flacco is one – he looked mostly harmless against a Cincinnati defense that hasn't impressed – but at least one of Jeremy Maclin or Mike Wallace could get something going here.

The biggest contributing pass catcher for Baltimore might actually be Javorius Allen, though. With Danny Woodhead out, a substantial amount of running back targets should be up for grabs, and Allen is by any account a fine fit for such a role. He was a great pass catcher in college, and secured 45 receptions as a rookie. Terrance West will be the lead running back and ballcarrier, but that Woodhead role should go to Allen.

Carolina (1-0) vs. Buffalo (1-0)

Open: 42 O/U, CAR -8
Press time: 43 O/U, CAR -7

Does Sean McDermott's six years as a defensive coordinator in Carolina give him any unique insights on the Panthers give him any unique insight heading into his homecoming? Maybe some on the defensive side – he had to report to Ron Rivera, a defensive head coach. I'm not presuming anything on the offensive side, though, where Christian McCaffrey will continue to force a paradigm shift. But with two similar-thinking defensive coaches and a mobile quarterback on each side, these teams should approach each other similarly.

With a small secondary and a tendency to play press-heavy man-to-man coverage, the Bills might concede a matchup that favors a big target like Kelvin Benjamin, who should be able to box out defenders even if they give him a cushion. With Greg Olsen also running at these small defensive backs, I'd be disappointed if at least one of the two top Carolina pass catchers can't get going in this one. The same dynamic should theoretically apply to Devin Funchess, but he saw just two targets despite leading Carolina wideouts in snaps in Week 1. I wouldn't chase Russell Shepard's Week 1 production, but he's worth keeping an eye on if Funchess can't make any noise. Of course, for any Carolina pass catcher to thrive in this game, Cam Newton might need to shake off some of the rust from Week 1.

The Bills did a good job of crashing down on Bilal Powell and Matt Forte in Week 1, allowing the two to combine for just eight catches for 37 yards on 11 targets, but McCaffrey is in his own category as a pass-catching threat. Jonathan Stewart draws what seems like a competent run defense, but he should see a steady workload in a game where the Carolina defense could earn some short fields for the Panthers offense.

The Buffalo offensive line seemed to do well against the Jets last week, but the Carolina defensive tackle rotation is in its own tier, and Tyrod Taylor has a tendency to get the ball batted at the line on his short drops. Ends Charles Johnson and Mario Addison aren't otherwise intimidating on the deep drops. Still, the matchup seems to bode poorly for Taylor – his main target, Charles Clay, has a no-go matchup on paper with Luke Kuechly roaming the middle of the field. Zay Jones has the quickness to theoretically create at least brief separation with corners James Bradberry and Daryl Worley, but if he doesn't, it's hard to see how Buffalo can throw the ball in this one.

Perhaps the most interesting collision of all in this game is Kuechly against LeSean McCoy. As great as McCoy is – and he is great – Kuechly generally doesn't lose. You're of course playing McCoy in season long, and there's always some sort of GPP justification in DFS, but I'll probably stay away.

Indianapolis (0-1) vs. Arizona (0-1)

Open: 44.5 O/U, ARZ -7
Press time: 44 O/U, ARZ -7

I'm going to take the liberty of skipping the Colts offense in this one. Sorry. I don't want to pick any of them this week.

Not that I'm psyched about picking Cardinals, either, but this is a case where one team should end up scoring points just because the other team's defense gets so tired and has to defend too many short fields. Even Carson Palmer, who looked quite bad against the Lions, should be able to get something going in this one. There's no Ezekiel Ansah or Haloti Ngata on the Colts defense, so the pass rush shouldn't be as much of a problem, and the secondary personnel is more friendly, too.

Larry Fitzgerald should provide a high floor in such a setting, though his lack of explosiveness at this point is quickly evident when you turn on the tape. Still, double-digit targets is probable, and it's at least plausible that he score once or twice. John Brown (quadriceps) wasn't practicing as of Thursday, and any limitation or absence on his part could strengthen Fitzgerald's projection even further. If Brown is limited or out, J.J. Nelson becomes more interesting, too.

Kerwynn Williams was the top backup to David Johnson prior to his wrist injury, so he should step into a workload with at least double-digit touches from scrimmage, even with Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson around. But that's not setting the bar high, and I'm worried that his lack of size as a 5-foot-8, 200ish-pound back might be held against him. I'm high on Williams' talent – he's fast, quick, and can catch very well despite a lack of NFL reps in the role. If he gets enough touches, I fully believe in his ability to make a fantasy impact. I'm worried about the touch count, though. Elijhaa Penny is worth monitoring as a short-yardage vulture.

Jacksonville (1-0) vs. Tennessee (0-1)

Open: 43.5 O/U, TEN -1.5
Press time: 42 O/U, TEN -1.5

Leonard Fournette looked like a standout workhorse against the Texans in Week 1, and he's a good candidate for another 20 touches in this one. Between the potential return of T.J. Yeldon (hamstring) and a matchup with what was one of the tougher run defenses of last year, though, there probably isn't much reason to rank him among the top runners this week, evident as his talent might be. He's certainly tournament-viable and locked into season-long lineups at this point, though.

If Tennessee can contain Fournette, Yeldon, and Chris Ivory, it could set up a surprisingly favorable passing funnel for Blake Bortles. Bortles still seems shaky with decision making and information processing in general, but he at least looked vaguely accurate in Week 1. Tennessee's awful pass defense from last year mostly seemed intact against the Raiders, allowing Derek Carr to complete 68.8 percent of his passes at 8.2 yards per attempt. If Bortles can scrape together a respectable box score, it would make at least one of Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns a candidate to produce, at least relative to their modest prices.

This is a tough matchup on paper for Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee offense, especially after Jacksonville dismantled Houston in Week 1. But the Cincinnati defense did something similar Thursday, and they're probably nothing better than average. The Jags have solid talent at all levels of the defense, but it's only corner where I think they're bordering on elite. I think Rishard Matthews and Corey Davis are both very good, but I'd rather try my luck with the interior pass-catching options for Tennessee. That'd be Delanie Walker and Eric Decker. If Jalen Ramsey (ankle) sits out, though, Matthews and Davis would move up for the fact, as would Mariota.

DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry are both good players and you're certainly starting the former in season-long leagues, but the usage doesn't seem on track for high point totals.

Kansas City (1-0) vs. Philadelphia (1-0)

Open: 47.5 O/U, KC -4
Press time: 47.5 O/U, KC -5.5

Arrowhead is intimidating, but the Chiefs defense is much lesser in light of Eric Berry's season-ending Achilles injury. His absence specifically opens things up for Zach Ertz, who's among the league's toughest covers at tight end.

There might be room for at least one other Philadelphia pass catcher to make an impact, though. After his promising Week 1 effort, Nelson Agholor figures to see a lot of substandard slot corner Phillip Gaines. You would think Marcus Peters would primarily draw Alshon Jeffery, but Terrance Mitchell can't cover Torrey Smith, if so. I should consider Carson Wentz a fine projection if these premises are correct, but with so many better quarterbacks in better matchups, I'd rather punt on the question.

I don't see much reason to bother with LeGarrette Blount – he didn't look good in Week 1 – but he should see some substantial usage, at least.

Alex Smith's brilliant Week 1 showing can't be taken away from him, but I'm still not buying for a second that he can repeat that sort of outcome. Particularly not against a Philadelphia pass rush that might be the league's best. If Smith can stay upright and composed, though, the Philadelphia secondary can't cover Tyreek Hill. The Eagles have for some reason done well against tight ends, though, so if Travis Kelce has a strong game, it's because he's a transcendent talent.

Kareem Hunt was incredible in Week 1, and his sales pitch needs no elaboration at this point. The Eagles front seven is fast and aggressive, but Hunt had a strong prospect profile even before his historic Week 1 showing, and the usage will definitely be there. He should be among the most matchup-proof backs going forward.

New Orleans (0-1) vs. New England (0-1)

Open: 53.5 O/U, NE -4.5
Press time: 56 O/U, NE -6

It's difficult to imagine the New England defense looking so bad two weeks in a row, but you still have to like Drew Brees at home against a defense that just gave up four passing touchdowns to Alex Smith. While Bill Belichick is known for scheming specifically to remove the best skill position from opposing offenses – clearly Michael Thomas in this case – Thomas is still set up favorably in this one. I'd rather target Coby Fleener than Ted Ginn, otherwise.

(Mark Ingram + Adrian Peterson + Alvin Kamara) ÷ 3 doesn't figure to add up to much.

Even while short on wideout personnel, Tom Brady should torch this Saints defense. He's had extra preparation time, while the Saints are on a short week. I'll probably have a lot of Brady and Brandin Cooks in DFS, with some Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, and James White otherwise sprinkled in.

You're almost definitely starting Mike Gillislee in season-long in a game with this sort of projected point total, but I'd consider him tournament-only in DFS. Three-touchdown debut or not, I'm worried about Belichick fundamentally changing the construction of the offense given the otherwise poor results from Week 1.

Pittsburgh (1-0) vs. Minnesota (1-0)

Open: 45.5 O/U, PIT -6
Press time: 44.5 O/U, PIT -6

For this spread to play out as expected, Ben Roethlisberger will need to play better than he did in Week 1. Since he'll be playing at home in this one, there's at least a decent chance he does just that. Antonio Brown can't be covered, Martavis Bryant has a big game coming up sooner or later, and Le'Veon Bell is almost certain to bounce back after an improbably bad Week 1 box score.

While I'm a big fan of Dalvin Cook, I'm not optimistic about his chances on the road against a Pittsburgh defense that shut down a competent Isaiah Crowell in Week 1. If Cook does damage, it might need to be as a pass catcher in space. He didn't show any power against the Saints, and the Steelers are nothing if not excessively physical.

I would have had some optimism for the standout duo of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen in this matchup, but the report of Sam Bradford's knee MRI – precautionary or not – has me a bit concerned against a Pittsburgh defense that is not above getting dirty to serve its interests. Diggs and Thielen can get open against the vast majority of corners, so they should get the ball if Bradford is physically fine and otherwise kept upright. Kyle Rudolph is always a good bet for red-zone targets.

Tampa Bay (0-0) vs. Chicago (0-1)

Open: 43 O/U, TB -5.5
Press time: 43.5 O/U, TB -7

I'm high on the Tampa Bay offense this year, but my respect for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio prevents me from getting overly optimistic about this particular matchup. You're using all of Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, and DeSean Jackson as you normally would in season-long leagues, but with a handful of noteworthy games with projected high scoring this week, I probably won't be approaching the trio in DFS.

I must mention I'm lower on Jacquizz Rodgers than most people, and not just because I think people underestimate the Bears defense. I just don't think Rodgers has the skill set of more than a receiving specialist, and Charles Sims is clearly better in that regard. I figure it's the likes of Evans, Jackson, Cameron Brate, and even Sims who do the scoring in this one.

Tarik Cohen might be the hottest name in fantasy football right now, and his usage as a pass catcher should remain intact. For it to specifically reach double-digit targets, though, I think he'll need to post better per-target efficiency than 3.9 YPT. It will be interesting to see if the Buccaneers use the agile and exceptionally instinctive Lavonte David to spy on Cohen. Jordan Howard is in your lineup in season-long formats, but I don't like the matchup against a Tampa Bay defense with tough run-stopping personnel.

I thought Mike Glennon looked rather poor in Week 1, and I'm not optimistic about his homecoming in this one. I'll be using the Tampa defense a fair amount in DFS.

Chargers (0-1) vs. Miami (0-0)

Open: 45.5 O/U, LAC -2.5
Press time: 45.5 O/U, LAC -3.5

The Dolphins did a good job of limiting big pass plays last year and held opposing passing games to under seven yards per pass, but their 30 touchdowns allowed might be of more interest to fantasy owners. I'm agnostic on where they might settle in the pass defense rankings this year, but that their first-down percentage and yards allowed per pass last year both ranked in the top third makes me think they're not a pushover.

With that said, Philip Rivers is a very good quarterback who's a justifiable pick in season-long or DFS. He has a good group of receivers at his disposal, and with a varied skill set within itself. Keenan Allen appears the go-to target, especially on third downs, while Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin both pose big-play threats in different ways. Williams caught five passes for 125 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins last year, though Allen wasn't active for that game.

Melvin Gordon's activity as a pass catcher makes him one of the more matchup-proof fantasy backs, so he's certainly viable in all scenarios against a Miami defense that allowed 140 yards per game on the ground last year at 4.8 YPC. The Dolphins added linebacker Lawrence Timmons in the offseason, but Gordon's too talented and with too big of a workload for that one point to intimidate his prospective owners.

I have no idea what to expect from Jay Cutler. None. The Chargers defense should be respectable, especially if Jason Verrett (knee) holds up after playing 63 snaps last week, so the opponent is unlikely to bail him out if he doesn't play well independently. Aside from Verrett, Casey Hayward is the most intimidating corner matchup, but Devante Parker's size might give him the chance to make plays even if he lacks separation. Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry are both capable of producing, especially against lesser corners, but I'm initially nervous about their exact fit in Cutler's schemes.

For an anticipated workhorse back, Jay Ajayi seems to have surprisingly little attention around him this week. The Chargers allowed an average of four yards per carry or more to both C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles last week, so Ajayi is definitely talented enough to get moving in this one. If I were the Chargers, though, I'd probably make him my primary concern and see if post-retirement Cutler can beat me instead.

Oakland (1-0) vs. Jets (0-1)

Open: 43.5 O/U, OAK -10
Press time: 43.5 O/U, OAK -13.5

The Jets pass defense should prove tougher than the Tennessee one Derek Carr easily took apart in Week 1, but it's still not an intimidating matchup for one of the league's best quarterbacks in a home game. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree both secure their share of targets so reliably that they project nicely in any scenario that Carr does. Jared Cook is certainly on the radar in a game where he could see some looks against the Jets' rookie safety tandem.

Marshawn Lynch looked good against a Tennessee defense that stopped the run well in 2016, so this setting is probably a more favorable one. The concern is his volume – it's hard to see Oakland needing him for more than three quarters – but any big lead the Raiders establish could easily have a lot to do with Lynch getting them there.

For the Jets, there may be some cheap utility to be found, especially in PPR scenarios, with Bilal Powell, Robby Anderson, and Jermaine Kearse. Anderson is a lanky receiver going against lanky outside Oakland corners, so the more stout Kearse might be the better on-paper matchup.

Denver (1-0) vs. Dallas (1-0)

Open: 42.5 O/U, DAL -1.5
Press time: 42 O/U, DAL -2.5

Ezekiel Elliott might be the most matchup-proof runner in the league, and he faces a Denver defense with depleted, questionable personnel in the front seven. I think this matchup sets up nicely for him, even though the setting is generally a tough one for visitors.

It's harder to buy in to the Dallas passing game, though Dak Prescott stood tall against a strong Giants defense in Week 1, and Dez Bryant was so close to a handful of big plays. Dez is too good to write off on a matchup basis, but in DFS it's hard to spend money on him given the other options out there. Jason Witten should be a fine season-long play in PPR formats, as usual – it's the cornerback personnel that's frightening with Denver, not the linebackers or safeties.

Trevor Siemian seems to do just enough to keep afloat the fantasy value of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, neither of whom are frightened by Dallas' defensive back personnel. Given their stranglehold on the target distribution in Denver, both of them could produce even if Siemian posts a modest box score.

I think C.J. Anderson should be able to run well enough in this home matchup, but Dallas did a great job of limiting opposing running games in 2016. Unless Dak gives Denver short fields, recent history suggests Anderson might prove efficient but lack for volume.

Rams (1-0) vs. Washington (0-1)

Open: 46 O/U, WAS -1.5
Press time: 46 O/U, LAC -2.5

The Rams defense pummeled the Colts even without defensive tackle Aaron Donald, their best player. Donald is back this week. I still wouldn't expect them to embarrass the Washington offense, though. Good pass rush or not, I don't expect the Rams to boast one as good as the one in Philadelphia.

I won't be approaching Kirk Cousins in DFS, but I still have the faith in Terrelle Pryor, whose TO-like appearance makes me optimistic despite a tough draw against Trumaine Johnson. I probably won't pick Jordan Reed or Jamison Crowder, but they're both good players who figure to see modest ownership at most.

Anyone who knows me knows I have no interest in Rob Kelley this week.

On the Rams' side, it feels like a bit much to ask Jared Goff to look good two weeks in a row, especially against a Washington defense with two of the league's best pass rushers in Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith. Josh Norman figures to do a number on Sammy Watkins, but perhaps Cooper Kupp can get something going from the slot for the second game in a row. Robert Woods is probably quick enough to shake Bashaud Breeland a couple times, but probably not for any big gains.

Todd Gurley's fantasy profile is boosted by the pass-catching work he's likely to see in Sean McVay's offense, but I was generally discouraged by his running in Week 1. There were a handful of times where the Colts defense sold out on run blitzing the interior, and Gurley ran right into it every time. He needs to see the field better.

Seattle (0-1) vs. San Francisco (0-1)

Open: 43.5 O/U, SEA -13
Press time: 42 O/U, SEA -14

Playing at home and with a two-touchdown spread, Russell Wilsonshould be a fine play this week. But after the poor Week 1 showing of his offensive line – which by any account is even worse than the already awful offensive lines he's dealt with in the past – I'm struggling to take much for granted. If Wilson does get it going, you of course like the projections of Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham.

If it's the running game that gets Seattle to cover the spread, then at least one of Thomas Rawls, Eddie Lacy, C.J. Prosise, or Chris Carson should provide something useful. I don't take much insight from Carson's six-carry showing, exciting as some may have found it, but I am going at Rawls a little bit in DFS tournaments.

With the 49ers, there should be usage for Carlos Hyde and Pierre Garcon. It's just hard to see how it goes anywhere.

Atlanta (1-0) vs. Green Bay (1-0)

Open: 54.5 O/U, ATL -1
Press time: 54.5 O/U, ATL -3

The Green Bay pass defense held Russell Wilson to 158 yards passing in Week 1, but that probably had more to do with Seattle's uniquely bad offensive line than it did the Green Bay pass rush or secondary play. I think you have to like Matt Ryan in this one, and I'm going to make a focused effort to get a lot of Julio Jones exposure this week in DFS, too. Taylor Gabriel and Mohamed Sanu see their respective utilities increase as Ryan's numbers go up, of course.

Austin Hooper's 128-yard, one-touchdown game might seem like a fluke since he only saw two targets, but that's probably wrong. He was excellent as a rookie, turning 27 targets into 270 yards, and he'll see more targets going forward. His impressive showing against the Bears helps on that front, but he would have seen a target increase anyway – he played 47 snaps Sunday, and he'll almost always see more than two targets per 47-snap sample.

The Falcons backfield situation is well known at this point; one or both of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman could prove useful in season long or DFS, but knowing ahead of time will be tough.

I'm a bit concerned about Vic Beasley getting shots at the right side of the Green Bay offensive line, which might be without Bryan Bulaga (ankle/illness) again, but you have to like Aaron Rodgers in a dome against almost any defense. All of the notable Green Bay pass catchers are in play to their typical extents, and more. Jordy Nelson is too good to fear a Desmond Trufant matchup, and the likes of Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, and Martellus Bennett can all get loose in this one if Rodgers is his usual self.

Ty Montgomery figures to be a popular play in DFS, and for good reason. He's just a really skilled runner, and he happens to catch passes in an elite offense. I doubt he's going to get loose for outrageous numbers – the Falcons defense is versatile and fast – but there's a strong possibility that Montgomery is simply a formidable talent at running back.

Giants (0-1) vs. Detroit (1-0)

Open: 43.5 O/U, NYG -5
Press time: 43.5 O/U, NYG -3

The biggest story will of course be the status of Odell Beckham, who missed Week 1 with an injury that seems safely described at this point as a high ankle sprain. The injury typically takes about a month to heal, so that Beckham suffered the injury August 21 leaves open the possibility that he's limited even if he does suit up for this one.

Given that, it's difficult to be overly optimistic about a Giants offense that looked hopeless without Beckham even while playing against a Dallas defense that lacks standout personnel. Brandon Marshall might not have much left at 33 years old, so Sterling Shepard is probably the only non-OBJ wideout I'd consider from the Giants this week, DFS or season long. I might take a shot at Evan Engram in DFS tournaments, though – Detroit rookie linebacker Jarrad Davis seemed to make a lot of contact in coverage last week.

Unless Paul Perkins shows more, it's difficult to consider anyone in the Giants' backfield aside from Shane Vereen, and primarily just PPR formats even in that case. Eli Manning should continue checking down, especially if Ezekiel Ansah gets one-on-one matchups with left tackle Ereck Flowers all day.

Matthew Stafford was great in Week 1, moving well in the pocket and releasing the ball quickly to extinguish a dangerous Arizona pass rush. A big part of Stafford's success was Golden Tate's dominance in clutch situations, as Tate turned four third-down targets into three catches for 48 yards. Tate should see a lot of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie from the slot, which might prove a tougher matchup than Tyrann Mathieu.

If DRC can contain Tate, it should leave Janoris Jenkins free to follow whoever the Giants consider the bigger threat between Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. I'd consider the latter more intimidating, but whoever avoids Jenkins still gets to see Eli Apple, who's no pushover. I'm a tad concerned about the Detroit offensive line holding up against the Giants front four – Damon Harrison might be a problem for Travis Swanson in particular – so I can see the Detroit offense regressing a bit in this one.

If both passing games struggle, then the turnover advantage could dictate a slim margin of victory for either team. Neither team has the running personnel to grind out extended drives, so there could be periods of extended drought until turnovers or exhaustion open up the scoreboard.