This article is part of our Football Draft Kit series.
Derek VanRiper and I had a conversation Tuesday on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today about the strategy of choosing fantasy quarterbacks based on their schedules in relation to other quarterbacks. This isn't a strategy of simply taking a quarterback with an easy schedule or making sure your QB2 doesn't have the same bye week as your QB1, but looking at all 17 weeks and choosing quarterbacks who may have alternating good matchups. For example, if you drafted Drew Brees early but are worried about his early season schedule (at Minnesota, home against New England, at Carolina), which quarterback has an easier first three weeks that you could consider playing instead of Brees? (This is an extreme example, of course, as you're likely not benching Brees at any point in the year.)
This also applies to those drafting in best ball leagues, as you don't gain much from having two quarterbacks putting up big games in the same week. Not that it hurts you when both succeed, but it hurts more when both struggle in the same week when you could have a QB2 with good matchups when your QB1 does not.
We don't know which defenses will be strong this year. Many teams that had poor defenses last year made significant changes in the offseason, so there's no guarantee they'll be poor again. My estimates below of tough games could be different than someone else's, so I've included the full schedule chart at the bottom of this article.
Here are a
Derek VanRiper and I had a conversation Tuesday on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today about the strategy of choosing fantasy quarterbacks based on their schedules in relation to other quarterbacks. This isn't a strategy of simply taking a quarterback with an easy schedule or making sure your QB2 doesn't have the same bye week as your QB1, but looking at all 17 weeks and choosing quarterbacks who may have alternating good matchups. For example, if you drafted Drew Brees early but are worried about his early season schedule (at Minnesota, home against New England, at Carolina), which quarterback has an easier first three weeks that you could consider playing instead of Brees? (This is an extreme example, of course, as you're likely not benching Brees at any point in the year.)
This also applies to those drafting in best ball leagues, as you don't gain much from having two quarterbacks putting up big games in the same week. Not that it hurts you when both succeed, but it hurts more when both struggle in the same week when you could have a QB2 with good matchups when your QB1 does not.
We don't know which defenses will be strong this year. Many teams that had poor defenses last year made significant changes in the offseason, so there's no guarantee they'll be poor again. My estimates below of tough games could be different than someone else's, so I've included the full schedule chart at the bottom of this article.
Here are a few combinations to consider:
Luck's ADP has fallen over the past two weeks with the odds increasing that he could miss Week 1, or potentially be limited if he does play. Making matters worse, Luck begins the season playing at the Rams, a defense that struggled a bit last season but had one of the best pass rushes in the NFL the year before. Once that game is past, the Colts will host the Cardinals in Week 2, a team that allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards and 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (they allowed a league-high four rushing TDs) last year. Week 3's home game against the Browns is a nice relief, only to be thrown back into a tough defense with a Week 4 trip to Seattle.
Palmer's season starts with back-to-back road games, but playing at Detroit and at Indianapolis isn't the toughest draw. His Week 3 home game against the Cowboys can be avoided if Luck is able to knock off the rust by then, and then Palmer gets to face the 49ers at University of Phoenix Stadium in Week 4, followed by Luck playing the Niners the next week while Palmer travels to Philadelphia. As you can see from the breakdown on the left, nearly all of Luck's bad matchups are coupled with good or decent ones for Palmer. Are you going to play Luck despite a bad matchup? Probably. But playing Palmer early in the season may be something to at least think about.
Carson Palmer and Brock Osweiler
Did you wait too long and are now convincing yourself that you can get by with Palmer as your QB1? Why not dig a little deeper and handcuff him with Osweiler? Go big or go home, right?
The schedule certainly lines up well, even though both have fairly favorable schedules to start. Palmer's Week 8 bye is a tough one to swallow with Osweiler having to face the Vikings' stout defense, but otherwise it's a decent coupling strategy with neither having seriously tough matchups in the same week. And, hey, maybe Cody Kessler will take over by then and reignite the flame that allowed him to throw for 336 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans in Week 6 last year.
Jameis Winston and Blake Bortles or Jay Cutler
Fantasy owners relying on James Winston this year should probably have a QB2 in mind during his brutal stretch between Weeks 3 and 8 when he will play home games against the Giants, Patriots and Panthers and on the road against the Vikings, Cardinals and Bills. Bortles is far from a stable fantasy play, but his matchups during that time are some of the easiest in the league.
Or if you're looking for a different Florida-based quarterback, maybe give Cutler some consideration despite the fact that he was out of football as recently as last month. If getting to play the Jets twice in the span of Winston's troublesome games isn't enough, Cutler will face the Saints and Titans in Miami while the Bucs will get home games against the Giants and Patriots. Which matchups would you prefer? Cutler's late-season schedule is pretty brutal, but Winston's is fairly soft by then. In fact, you could probably release Cutler just before his Week 11 bye (unfortunately the same as Winston's) because he doesn't offer Winston's fantasy owners any help later in the year.
There are many fantasy managers who are expecting a breakout for Carr this season, and his early season schedule may allow him to do that outside of a trip to Denver in Week 4. However, if you're able to ride Carr to a playoff spot in your fantasy league watch out for that schedule toward the end of the season. One the plus side, Carr gets home games in Weeks 11 through 13. Unfortunately, they're against the Patriots, Broncos and Giants, respectively, three of the best defensive teams in the league. It doesn't get any better after that, with a Week 14 (usually fantasy playoff time) trip to Kansas City. However, if you've hung onto Rivers all season, Weeks 11 through 16 become much more manageable with home games against the Bills, Browns and Redskins and trips to Dallas and the Jets (the road game at Kansas City is when you can play Carr at home against the Cowboys). Rivers' early schedule is as brutal as Carr's is late, making them a solid combination over the course of the season.
Here's a breakdown of each team's schedule throughout the season, highlighting positive and negative matchups. The color coding is done without any scientific thought process and simply done with the question "is this a great, good, bad or awful matchup?"
