Ray Rice

Rice posted the lowest rushing and receiving totals of his four-year starting career last season but still topped 90 total yards or scored a touchdown in 13 games, only missing those marks in the Ravens' two blowout losses and a meaningless Week 17. And while his receptions were down, they still ranked second among running backs. Rice is reliable as they come at the goal-line, converting eight of his 18 rushes inside the 10-yard line, tops among running backs with at least 15 such carries. And Rice again proved durable, playing 16 games for the fourth consecutive season. Rice's 278 catches the last four seasons lead the position, and with the team's loss of Anquan Boldin that trend figures to continue – Rice likely will be no worse than Joe Flacco's third target in the passing game. It's possible Bernard Pierce carves out a bigger role in the running game after turning in a promising rookie season (4.9 YPC on 108 totes), but it won't be enough to downgrade Rice.

Rice led the NFL last year with 2,068 yards from scrimmage, and his five carries for 40-plus yards were also the most in football. While his yardage output and extreme production as a receiver came as no surprise, his 21 goal-line carries, which tied for the second-most in the NFL, certainly did. It’s big news for Rice’s fantasy value, as he converted a respectable eight of the totes for scores, so the role should remain his. Rice forced a modest 17 missed tackles, which tied for 32nd among all backs, so he’s not quite as elusive as his stats may suggest (he forced just five missed tackles the previous year, ranking 52nd). Still, it’s hard to complain about that production, and he’s clearly Baltimore’s workhorse, further debunking the notion smaller running backs can’t handle a full workload. While the Ravens are still waiting for Joe Flacco to make “the leap,” Torrey Smith looks like a possible future star, and Baltimore enters 2012 among the favorites to win the Super Bowl, so Rice is in an above-average environment. At press time, Rice was looking for a long-term contract from the Ravens, and the two sides are at an impasse. If no agreement is reached, Rice will be subject to the $7.7 million franchise tag, creating a small risk of a holdout.

After eclipsing 2,000 total yards during his second season in the league, Rice took a step back last year, as he finished with 119 fewer rushing yards despite seeing 53 more carries. Still, he finished with 1,776 yards from scrimmage and six scores, along with 63 catches. Part of the decrease in production was because Rice dealt with a knee injury over the first half of the season, and another problem was Baltimore’s run blocking went from a major strength in 2009 to a weakness in 2010. Rice deserves plenty of blame himself, though, as he forced just five missed tackles on 307 rushing attempts, which was the lowest ratio in the NFL. Despite Rice’s diminutive 5-8 frame, he’s established himself as the Ravens’ lead back (his 370 touches last year were the third most in the NFL), though he’ll at best likely split goal-line work, despite the release of Willis McGahee.

Rice fast became an elite fantasy producer during his sophomore campaign, totaling 2,041 yards, thanks to being the league’s most dangerous receiver out of the backfield. In fact, he easily led all running backs with 78 receptions (and his 702 receiving yards were 199 more than any other RB’s). Rice was given more than 20 carries in a game just twice, so he’s not a workhorse, but surpassing 2,000 total yards on just 254 rushing attempts is pretty impressive. He’ll never be a 325- carry guy, but Rice averaged 18.1 rushes over the final 10 games last season after getting just 12.2 over the first six contests. Rice saw just seven goal-line carries, however, (and converted only one) while Willis McGahee was given 11 opportunities at the stripe (and was successful on seven of them), so Rice’s touchdown potential is limited. Moreover, with Joe Flacco entering his third year in the league, and the addition of Anquan Boldin, the typically run-heavy Ravens may shift to a more balanced offense that could feature more downfield throws. Of course, the maturation of Flacco and the presence of an elite wide receiver like Boldin could also benefit Rice, as he’ll be playing in a much more potent offense. And if the second half of last season was any indication, a further increase in carries could follow. Rice can’t match the other elite fantasy backs because of his lack of work at the goal line, but no other RB can match his production in the passing game, and it wouldn’t surprise if the third-year back led the league in yards from scrimmage.

Rice received 107 carries during his rookie season, averaging a modest 4.2 YPC. However, he also racked up 30 receptions for 254 receiving yards over his final nine games of the regular season, and that was while he was still learning pass protection. At 5-8, 205, Rice isn’t a big back, but he’s quick and can be a major weapon as a receiver. With Lorenzo Neal leaving through free agency, Baltimore plans on moving Le’Ron McClain back to his more traditional fullback role, opening up more touches for Rice. McClain is likely to retain short-yardage work, limiting Rice’s TD potential, and Willis McGahee also remains on the roster, so Rice will be a part of a committee. Still, the Ravens easily led the NFL with 592 rushing attempts last season, and that philosophy is unlikely to change much in 2009. With McGahee’s health a question and him falling out of favor with the current coaching regime, Rice could easily lead the team in carries, resulting in nice yardage output.

Rice rushed for more than 2,000 yards at Rutgers last year, totaling 44 touchdowns over the past two seasons. At just 5-9, he’s a compact runner who gains most of his yardage after initial contact. He doesn’t have great speed and needs to improve as a pass blocker and receiver, but he should immediately become Willis McGahee’s backup in Baltimore.