This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
We are in the last days of the regular season, so short-term trends are often more predictive than season-long trends as teams prepare for the postseason (or the offseason). Teams that have locked up a playoff spot or playoff positioning have no impetus to play veterans if they have even the slightest physical discomfort, while teams already eliminated from playoff contention are the in the same boat. The Mavs have been sitting vets off and on all week; there's word that the Pelicans will sit Anthony Davis on one half of back-to-backs, while DeMarcus Cousins has some discomfort around his Achilles; the Spurs are essentially resting their entire rotation Friday. These types of situations absolutely change the way that fantasy basketball runs, as at this time of year it's not about the name on the back of the jersey, it's about who the teams will play, whether you've ever heard their names or not!
GUARD
Russell Westbrook, OKC at PHO ($65): Westbrook is poised to justify his huge price, as he is one triple-double away from the NBA record, and the media has covered it so heavily that there's no way he doesn't know. He's playing a weak Suns defense that is populated by young, run-and-gun players and, in Tyler Ulis, an extremely undersized defender. Westbrook has three games with more than 72 fantasy points in his last five outings, and his expected value for Friday is at least in that range. Lower-priced value point guard options for Friday include Patty Mills of San Antonio and either of Jamal Murray or Emmanuel Mudiay in Denver.
Devin Booker, PHO vs OKC ($30): Booker has scored between 34.3 and 49.9 fantasy points in six of his last seven games, with the one exception being his 93.6 two weeks ago. The Suns have nothing to play for and have clearly been funneling offense to their brightest scoring prospect. On Friday, he'll be on the other side of the court as Russell Westbrook seeks to make triple-double history, and in what should be a fast-paced, high-offense game Booker should be set to continue his strong play.
Guard to Avoid
DeMar DeRozan, TOR vs MIA ($42): DeRozan has played really well over the last couple of months while Kyle Lowry was sidelined. Lowry returned Wednesday with a monster game, and DeRozan was limited to only 28.8 fantasy points. He can certainly bounce back, as he's had plenty of big games with Lowry in the lineup, but the odds of him going big are lower now with his running mate back. And at his price, uncertainty is not desired.
FORWARD
Danilo Gallinari, DEN vs NO ($25): Gallinari has a few things working in his favor, as far as fantasy production goes. For one, he's a veteran on a team fighting for a playoff spot, so they are relying heavily on him. Second, he's expected to decline his player option, which means that he is in a contract year; two powerful forces. Gallinari has scored between 31.0 and 41.0 fantasy points in four straight games, and on Friday faces the same Pelicans squad that he just dropped 41 fantasy points on Tuesday.
Larry Nance Jr., LAL vs SAC ($11): Nance is an example of that young player on a lottery-bound team that's stepping it up late. He has faced two of the toughest defenses in the NBA in his last two games, the Spurs on the road and the Grizzlies, and he has responded with 32.3 and 37.8 fantasy points, respectively. On Friday, he faces another young, lottery bound team in the Kings in a game where not much defense is expected on either side.
Forward to Avoid
Carmelo Anthony, NY at MEM ($31): Anthony posted a solid 36.2 fantasy points Thursday, which means that Friday's game would be the second night of a back-to-back, on the road, for a veteran who has already been announced to be on a minutes watch. There have been no official announcements, but there is a very reasonable chance that Anthony doesn't even travel for this game. Even if he does play, he'd be facing one of the three best defenses in the NBA.
CENTER
Marc Gasol, MEM vs NY ($28): Gasol returned from injury earlier this week with 29.2 fantasy points at the Spurs, followed by 46.0 fantasy points against the Thunder on the second half of a back-to-back Wednesday. Gasol can produce like the elite-priced centers, but his recent injury seems to have depressed his price. This makes him a potential value play against a Knicks interior defense that isn't intimidating and that will likely be missing Kristaps Porzingis (back) again.
Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC at LAL ($20): Cauley-Stein has three straight double-doubles, including impressive performances against fellow former Kentucky big men DeMarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns. On Friday, he faces what should be a much easier Lakers team in a game that should include very little defense.
Center to Avoid
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at UTA ($49): Towns is a consistent superstar who is expected to produce in any matchup, but he is also priced as such. The Jazz, with Rudy Gobert in the middle, are one of the toughest defenses against centers in the NBA. Towns has averaged about 39 fantasy points in three games against the Jazz this season, which is admirable production in the face of that level of defense, but for $49 he'd need to score significantly more to be worth it.
