This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defense To Avoid
Detroit Pistons, vs. Milwaukee Bucks: There are quite a few below average-to-bad defenses on the Wednesday slate, but the Pistons check in as one of the stingiest. They've yielded just 97.9 points on the season, tying them with the Spurs for second least in the league. While the Bucks have certainly proven capable of making their mark on the scoreboard at times this season, they've notably lost four of their last five road games, and they were completely stymied by this same Pistons squad to the tune of a 98-83 defeat in their one previous meeting this season.
Offense To Use
San Antonio Spurs, vs. Phoenix Suns: A number of games could potentially be shootouts tonight, including Nuggets-Timberwolves and Warriors-Raptors, so those units are also certainly viable to hone in on for fantasy purposes. However, although they're not particularly known for lighting up the scoreboard, the Spurs could make for an under-the-radar squad to look into tonight, given their date with a Suns defense that gives up the second-most points (114.8), and is tied with Denver for the fifth-highest shooting percentage (46.7) surrendered. They also commit 15.4 turnovers a game, setting up plenty of fast-break opportunities for the opposition. Meanwhile, the Spurs' offense has been hot lately, with scoring totals of 113, 110 and 119 in three of their last five, and a whopping 130 points in their game against the only defense worse than the Suns', the Brooklyn Nets'.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Hornets, Suns, Raptors
Second game of a back-to-back: None
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
John Wall, WAS vs. IND ($9,500): With Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,100) priced at five figures, he could be out of range for some, while Damian Lillard ($8,500 -- ruled out) and Chris Paul ($9,000 -- not expected to play) carry injury concerns. However, Wall lands in a tantalizing situation Wednesday, as the Pacers have struggled throughout the season against point guards. They've given up the tenth-most fantasy points to the position (55.1), along with 23.0 points, 9.1 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game. Wall already went for 42.5 fantasy points in the one prior Pacers-Wizards meeting this season, is averaging 49.4 fantasy points over 17 home games, and has scored over 50 fantasy points in five of his last 10 games.
Zach LaVine, MIN at DEN ($6,400): Dwyane Wade ($6,600) and Derrick Rose ($6,300) also make for fine plays at this tier, but I like LaVine's upside the most, given his 50-fantasy point ceiling and the matchup. The Nuggets' backcourt has been a sieve all season and has yielded the most fantasy points (47.7), points (25.1) and assists (4.8) to two-guards, while also checking in as a bottom-10 unit in virtually every other category against the position. LaVine went for 27.8 fantasy points in the one prior T-Wolves-Nuggets tilt this season, and that was on a cold shooting night (4-of-13). Given his recent play (48.9 percent shooting, 35.2 fantasy points over his last six), he could be in for much more Wednesday.
Brandon Knight, PHO at SA ($4,200): Jamal Crawford ($5,400) and Austin Rivers ($4,900) are both intriguing as well if Chris Paul and/or J.J. Redick sit again tonight for the Clippers, but Knight checks in at a notable savings over those two and with a hot hand. He's scored 28.0, 32.25 and 29.25 fantasy points in three of his last four, with four straight double-digit scoring efforts and 54.8 percent shooting over that span, as well as 44.4 percent from three-point range. While the Spurs certainly aren't a matchup to target for fantasy purposes, Knight's role in the rotation should help him largely avoid some Danny Green defense and potentially open up some opportunities for him to offer at least a 5x return on his modest price.
Kevin Durant, GS vs. TOR($9,800): Durant under five figures is always a "set it and forget it" proposition in my book, and this is certainly the case once again in what should be a tightly-contested affair Wednesday. The Raptors have been about middle-of-the-pack against small forwards, giving up 41.7 fantasy points to the position, and Durant has been over 60 fantasy points twice and over 50 once in his last five games. His ceiling is sky-high, particularly in competitive matchups, and he's averaged 50.4 fantasy points in 14 home games this season, while also having posted 51.8 fantasy points in the first Warriors-Raptors meeting this season.
For those who can't squeeze Durant in, Jimmy Butler ($8,400) presents as an excellent alternative against a Nets defense that's been unable to defend small forwards with any success this season.
Serge Ibaka, ORL vs. CHA ($6,200): LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,900) is also highly appealing at this price tier against a Suns defense that's given up the fifth-most fantasy points (49.4) to power forwards this season. However, I like Ibaka just a bit more at a discount and against a Hornets interior defense that's also been quite vulnerable. They've given up 50.0 fantasy points over the last five to power forwards, along with a healthy 1.5 blocks per game to the position on the season, which could serve as a nice supplement to the swat-happy Ibaka's fantasy haul Wednesday. The big man has also been running hot, having scored 39.5 to 51.25 fantasy points in three of his last four, and a solid 28.5 in the other game during that stretch.
Evan Turner, POR vs. SAC ($4,200): Turner's teammate Maurice Harkless ($4,600) also shapes up as a nice option here, but Turner has as much if not more upside, while checking in $400 cheaper. With Damian Lillard out again Wednesday, Turner should be in for a solid allotment of playing time, as was the case Tuesday when he received 27 minutes. He produced 22.75 fantasy points that night, and scored 24.75 to 29.0 fantasy points in three of the four games prior as well.
DeMarcus Cousins, SAC at POR ($11,400): Cousins should have his way with a Blazers frontcourt that has been highly penetrable all season. He should particularly thrive at power forward, a position to which Portland has yielded the most fantasy points (54.7) on the season, as well as over the last five games (59.0). Their league-worst rankings also extend to the categories of points (24.1) and rebounds (12.8) surrendered to the position, making Cousins the likely play of the night, overall. He already decimated this same squad for an average of 69.1 fantasy points in his two prior encounters this season, including a jaw-dropping 83.5 tally against them on Dec. 20.
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. MIN ($6,400): Jokick's price continues to lag behind his impressive ceiling, which most recently has reached as high as 64.25 fantasy points, a figure he tallied against the Mavs on Dec. 19. He was at 50 fantasy points in his most recent game on Monday against the Clippers, and has been over the 50-fantasy point mark in another game over the last 10, as well. The T-Wolves have picked it up against centers in recent weeks, but still give up the highest field-goal percentage (59.1) to the position, along with the sixth-most points (21.1).
Al Jefferson, IND at WAS ($3,300): Jefferson continues to maximize his modest playing time on most nights, most recently having scored over 20 fantasy points in four of his last six games despite playing no more than 20 minutes in any of those contests. The Wizards have yielded a robust 48.6 fantasy points to centers over their last five, and Jefferson's recent surge has him averaging 18.9 fantasy points over his last five games, a 5x return on his very affordable price.
INJURY REPORT
For the latest news on injured players heading into the games, check out our Injury Updates page.
