Regan's Rumblings: Things I Wonder About as the Season Winds Down

As we head into the playoffs in a couple of weeks, here are a few storylines I'm watching:

Will Bryce Harper play in the NLDS?

Can Zack Greinke get by Colorado in the Wild Card game and help Arizona stick it to the Dodgers?

Is an Ervin Santana-led rotation really going to be in the playoffs?

Will Corey Seager's elbow doom the Dodgers' chances (or will it be Pedro Baez's pitching)?

What could possibly trip up the Indians? Pitchers not named Corey Kluber?

Looking further forward, these are some other things I'm pondering as I think about 2018:

Which Matt Harvey will we see in 2018?

I don't know that Harvey is "washed up" just yet, but these numbers aren't exactly trending in the right direction:

1 - The Mets fire their entire training staff or

2 - Harvey winds up in a new organization that plays in a pitcher's park

I think there's a very good chance Harvey is traded or less likely, non-tendered, this winter. He's set to hit free agency after the 2018 season and with the team in full re-build mode, the only way they keep him is if they decided on Option C: attempt to rehab him, build his trade value in the first half, and trade him at the 2018 deadline.

Is 2017 Giancarlo Stanton's new norm?

The last time Stanton played in 145 or more games was back in 2014 when he hit .288/.395/.555 with 37 home runs. This year he's sitting at 147 games and a .279/.374/.632 slash with 55 home runs. If, prior to 2017, one was to make a list of the five most likely players to hit 50+ home runs, Stanton would certainly top the list with the usual "if he can stay healthy" caveat. The other four? Probably Khris Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Paul Goldschmidt, and Bryce Harper.

Stanton has made notable progress in areas other than his elite power, including a 12.3% BB% and most notably, a 23.7% K% that compares quite favorably to his 27.8% career rate. In looking through further plate discipline detail, Stanton is swinging at fewer pitches in general, fewer outside the strike zone, and swinging and missing less often. It seems like he's been around for a decade-plus, but Stanton is still just 27 and with already 263 career home runs, he may just be getting started. Multiple 50+ homer seasons seem likely assuming of course his health issues are behind him.

Just how good will Ronald Acuna be in 2018?

Acuna is a lock to make his MLB debut in 2018, and it's only a question of when. A mid-April debut delays his free agency a year. A June debut saves the Braves millions by ensuing he won't be a Super-two arbitration eligible case. The timeline will likely be based on how he's hitting in Triple-A, but anything later than June 15 would be a surprise. Acuna made his way through three minor league levels this year:

High-A: .287/.336/.478, 3 HR, 14 SB

Double-A: .326/.374/.520, 9 HR, 19 SB

Triple-A: .344/.393/.548, 9 HR, 11 SB

Basically as the level of competition increased, so did Acuna's performance. That's not something you typically see, especially from a 19-year-old. This is a unique talent and in my mind, he's baseball's #1 overall prospect. In terms of what to expect in 2018 with the Braves, Acuna's 7% walk rate this year is a bit low and could hurt him at the upper levels and his BABIP was in the .400 range, so expectations should be tempered a bit. Something in the range of .280/.330/.460 with 15-20 homers and 25+ stolen bases is doable given an April debut but who knows, perhaps I'm being too conservative.

Is Jose Bautista finished?

Prior to the 2016 season, Bautista was reportedly seeking five years and more than $150 million from the Blue Jays. Coming off a season in which he hit .250/.377/.536 with 40 homers, 114 RBI, and 108 runs scores, it was thought to be his last chance to cash in big given he was 35 at the time. We don't know whether Bautista turned down slightly lesser offers from the club, but Toronto wisely refused to meet his demands, instead letting him play out his $14 million option in 2016, extending him a qualifying offer in 2017 (he turned it down), and ultimately signing him for $18 million this year with a 2018 mutual option that Toronto will surely decline.

So what happened since his solid 2015 season? Bautista has gone from a 4.1 WAR player that year to 1.4 in 2016 and -0.1 this year. First are the strikeouts:

What will the first-round look like in fantasy drafts next March?

Assuming a traditional 5X5 roto format, I'd expect the first round to look something like this:

1 - Mike Trout – Safest fantasy pick since Emmitt Smith in his hey day

2 - Jose Altuve – My pick for AL MVP is a true five-category stud

3 - Paul Goldschmidt – There are a lot of good 1B, but not many with 17 SB

4 - Clayton Kershaw – Back injuries drop him to four

5 - Nolan Arenado – Imagine if he had more than 3 SB

6- Mookie Betts – Not as good this year, particularly in the BA department (.263)

7 - Bryce Harper – Probably top-three in OBP leagues

8 - Max Scherzer – Going on nine consecutive seasons of 30+ starts, five of 230+ strikeouts, and another sub-3.00 ERA

9 - Joey Votto – 35 HR, batting .317, and will top 100 in both runs and RBI

10 - Freddie Freeman – Injury knocks down counting stats, but .318/.415/.611 is very elite

11 - Giancarlo Stanton – I'd put him 5 if I could count on 140+ games

12 - Charlie Blackmon – I had a couple others here originally, but I just can't ignore .332 with 35 HR, 131 runs, 93 RBI, and 13 SB. He's a counting stats machine.

Apologies to Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge, and others.

Could Nolan Arenado threaten the single-season RBI record next year?

Doubtful given the record sits at 191 (Hack Wilson in 1930). Incredibly, in addition to his own .454 OBP that year, Wilson had four additional teammates in the lineup with OBP's greater than .400 and an overall team OBP of .378. To put that in context, this year's leader is the Astros with a .345 OBP with the Rockies fifth at .336. So while the Rockies do have Charlie Blackmon posting a .395 OBP while leading off and DJ LeMahieu at .379 in the two-hole, Arenado would likely need a couple .420+ OBP guys in front of him to approach Wilson. A more likely target could be Manny Ramirez's 1999 total of 165 RBI, the most anyone has posted since 1938.

Arenado has destroyed lefties to the tune of .416/.480/.854 while posting a modest .846 OPS against RHP. Perhaps if you take 2016's 32-100 against RHP and extend his 2017 15-46 against LHP to say 17-55 and add a little growth, something like 50-165 starts to look realistic.

Who is the next Tommy Pham?

A few of our quotes regarding Pham before the season:

"When healthy, Pham showed neither the ability to be a reliable everyday player nor any semblance of plate discipline."

"Pham was also helpless against left-handed pitchers…"

These are both true based on what we saw last year. Pham struck out in 38.8% of his PA's while batting .206 versus LHP and .226/.324/.440 overall. When doing projections, all we have to go on are players' recent track record and their prospect/performance history. Well, had some NICE minor league stints, but he also hit .236 in 33 Triple-A games last year. This year? I'm pretty sure that the Cardinals would not have given $82.5 million to Dexter Fowler had they foreseen Pham batting .307/.408/.521 with 21 homers and 21 steals in his first 476 plate appearances. Pham has notably turned things around against lefties, batting .287/.396/.575 against them. Just a great year for the 29-year-old.

So back to the question – who is the next Tommy Pham? It's really like asking who the next Chris Taylor is? Any name I throw out there will seem like a massive stretch, but also saying at this time last year that Pham would be a 20/20 guy with a .929 OPS would be summarily discarded. But just in case one of these guys pans out, at least I'll have it on record for a "told ya so" comment in a future column:

1 - Ketel Marte, SS, ARI – I've always liked watching him here in Reno and given he's still just 23 and is listed at 6-foot-1, perhaps he'll put on muscle and develop 25-30-homer power and steal 20 bases.

2 - Alen Hanson, OF/INF, CHW – Hasn't hit much in the big leagues, but has speed and power potential. Maybe 2018 is a breakout year.

3 - Kaleb Cowart, 2B/3B, LAA – A first-round pick (2010), Cowart has experienced very limited success in parts of three big league seasons, but while in the minors, he's flashed 20/20 potential, and he did bat .311/.382/.482 in Triple-A this year.

How would I handicap next year's ROY races?

It's tough to say this early, as we don't know who will get promoted in time to accrue the necessary at-bats/innings to qualify in the eyes of voters. For now, I'll go with this:

American League

Francisco Mejia, C, CLE – Not sure he breaks camp with the big club, but he should.

Willie Calhoun, OF, TEX – Bat isn't in question, but his long-term position is. Expect it to be LF/DH.

Dustin Fowler, OF, OAK – Remember this guy? He's expected to compete for the CF job next spring.

National League

Ronald Acuna, OF, ATL – Is it Opening Day, mid-April, June? His ETA is the big question.

Alex Reyes, SP, STL – Should be ready to contribute early after Tommy John.

Alex Verdugo, OF, LAD – I expect him to be the Opening Day LF.

Which pitchers today are "aces" and which are on the cusp?

The term "ace" gets thrown around far too loosely right now, as we often here that so-and-so is the team's ace, when in fact, he's just a pitcher that happens to be slightly better than a bunch of other mediocre arms. Case in point: one could make an argument that Robert Stephenson is the Reds' best starting pitcher right now. Over his last six starts, Stephenson has a 2.84 ERA (but a 1.45 WHIP). He's not an ace. Here are a few characteristics that in my mind constitute an "ace" starting pitcher:

He's the no-doubt Game 1 starter in the playoffs (assuming adequate rest).

He averages at least six innings a start. Ideally seven, but only Corey Kluber is there this year.

- K/9 of 9.0 or more

- BB/9 of 2.8 or less

- FIP less than 3.50

We can argue that some of those criteria should be higher or lower, but applying those filters to 2017 data gives us 11 aces: Chris Sale, Kluber, Zack Greinke, Luis Severino, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jimmy Nelson, Carlos Carrasco, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Archer, Aaron Nola, Alex Wood.

Surprise inclusions: Severino, Nelson, Nola, Wood

Surprise exclusions: Jacob DeGrom (FIP), James Paxton (IP), Justin Verlander (BB, FIP), Madison Bumgarner (more injuries than anything)

On the cusp: Nola, Severino, Nelson, Wood (maybe), James Paxton (health an issue), Carlos Martinez

Minor leaguers with a shot at ace potential: Michael Kopech (CHW), Triston McKenzie (CLE), Forrest Whitley (HOU), Alex Reyes (STL)

To further filter, I typically like to see a track record of this sort of performance over multiple seasons, thus, my final "ace list" would consist of: Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale, Kluber, Greinke, and Strasburg. One could certainly argue others however (Justin Verlander is pitching like an ace now), but to me this should be a short list.