The Z Files: With the 12th Pick...

For the past several seasons, I've been in the Premature Edraftulation League, a real National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) league run by NFBC stalwart and friend, Dan Kenyon. This year, I teamed up with my podcast partner Derek Van Riper. With a week and a half left, it looks like The Team to be Named Later will finish just outside the money.

Did I mention the draft is scheduled to begin on September 30, but in all likelihood, will commence sometime this weekend?

DVR and I had the first pick this season and went fishing, selecting Mike Trout. We've been slotted 12th for the 2018 draft. After a summer of answering all your questions, I thought I'd turn the tables and ask for some opinions on the first couple of picks. Please feel free to post any question pertaining to the final days of the 2017 season or keeper question in the comments, and I'll be happy to answer, but if you have a moment, please chime in with your thoughts on the 12th and 19th picks of the Premature Edraftulation League. Here's where I currently am in my thought process.

Players who should definitely be off the board

Mike Trout
Jose Altuve
Paul Goldschmidt
Mookie Betts
Nolan Arenado
Giancarlo Stanton

I can't imagine any of this sextet slipping to the 12-hole. I don't know for sure this will be the exact order I rank them for next season, but it's my best guess as of now.

Players likely off the board

Charlie Blackmon
Aaron Judge
Clayton Kershaw
Max Scherzer

I'll bet each of this quartet falls to 12th in some NFBC drafts, but I suspect their ADP will be top 10. By listing them here, it doesn't mean they're my vote for the pick; it's where I think the market will place the players.

Likely in play

What follows is the list of 15 players apt to be in play for our first two picks. Our second selection is 19th overall, but I included more since I'm into team construction, so the follow-up pick depends on the initial selection. Team construction is more important than absolute ranking. The players are discussed in alphabetical order so I don't tip my hand. Truth be told, I haven't settled on the players I want to pitch to DVR yet, so you have an opportunity to influence my thinking.

Cody Bellinger: The likely National League Rookie of the Year has a great shot at 40-plus homers with more than 90 runs and RBI, in what amounts to just over three-quarters of a season. Given a full 162-game slate in 2018, 40-100-100 isn't out of the question. Oh yeah, he'll swipe low double-digit bases, too. As if this wasn't enough, there's room for growth if Bellinger can cut down on the whiffs. He'll probably finish 2017 with an average in the .270-280 range, with a strikeout rate around 27 percent. I suspect the counting stats will remain bountiful in 2018. Bellinger doesn't have enough of a track record to assume he won't in fact fan more, though.

Kris Bryant: This could be my most controversial take. Some are calling this a disappointing season for Bryant. I disagree. I think we're simply seeing the lower end of his plausible outcomes, especially in homers. That said, my concern is run production if Bryant continues to hit out of the two-hole. While there could be exceptions, I want at least 200 runs plus RBI from a first-round hitter and I'm leery Bryant can knock in ample teammates to attain that level. Granted, a lot of things can happen. He can be moved down to third or fourth. Javier Baez, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Willson Contreras can collectively improve. Come March, I may change my tune. But, as of now, I prefer Bryant in the second round.

Madison Bumgarner: Hopefully, no one is questioning the worthiness of the pick but rather the strategy of taking an arm so early. Bumgarner's early season mishap was obviously a fluke. He hasn't been the same since, but I'm not holding that against him. The track record speaks for itself. In fact, the time off could be a blessing in disguise as there's a lot of mileage on a still-young left arm. While I haven't fully formulated my approach to pitching for next season, securing one of the Top Five early is probably Plan A. The main decision for this league is pitcher-hitter or hitter-pitcher, which is likely to be dependent on who is on the board. For the record, Bumgarner is fifth on my list and I can't imagine the other four all off the board at pick 12. As such, Bumgarner is more likely in play at 2.04 if the others are gone.

Carlos Correa: Prorated to a full season, Correa's 2017 numbers are 30-plus homers with 100-plus runs and RBI. He's not running, but that could be due to leg injuries during the season or situational. I don't care about the possibility of 10 bags. A healthy Correa is a first-round pick and if available, will be the subject of a chat with DVR.

Freddie Freeman: With Freeman, it's all about health. This will be his second time in the past three campaigns with fewer than 120 games. But, is he injury prone or accident prone? The concern is both in 2015 and this season, Freeman missed time with wrist issues. They don't appear to be chronic. However, with the talent at the position, I'm not sure I want to take a chance so early in the second round. Reading between the lines, I won't be pushing Freeman in the first. He's more a consideration at the 2/3 turn after an early first-round pick.

Bryce Harper: This could be another contentious opinion, but as good as Harper is when he's on the field, I'm not comfortable investing a first-round pick on him with his injury history. He's going to threaten 30-100-100 in only 500 plate appearances. That's silly. And, he averaged 150 games in 2015 and 2016. I understand the "if he stays healthy" argument. I get some will approach the new injury landscape with "guys are going to get hurt anyway, may as well go for it." Sorry, I'm old school. With such plush options in the Top 20, I'll play it safe and shake the hand of the person beating me with Harper. Finally, I realize not having the same worries about Giancarlo Stanton could be deemed a contradiction. Maybe I'm misreading the market, or maybe it's recency bias with Stanton ending the season raking while Harper is trying to make it back for the playoffs, but my sense is Stanton is considered less of a risk by the masses than Harper.

Corey Kluber: Kluber has earned a promotion to the elite tier. Even with the injuries, Kershaw is still tops for me. Past that, take Kluber, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale, toss their names in a hat and pick one. Honestly, I don't see a difference. Sure, when I run projections, one will be highest and one lowest, but they're all basically the same. Assuming DVR and I agree we want a hurler early, the debate will be grabbing one at 1.12 or crossing our fingers one is there seven picks later.

Manny Machado: As many predicted, Machado's second-half numbers swelled in sync with his stellar hard-hit rate. To wit, Machado entered the break hitting .230. A .307 mark since lands him at .264, about 25 points lower than expected. This seems like a lot, but that boils down to 12 or 13 hits, one every other week. That is, 25 points is well within random fluctuation. I'm a little bummed he'll lose shortstop eligibility, but not enough to fade him out of the top two rounds.

J.D. Martinez: Some will worry about where Martinez signs, but regardless of where he lands, he's one of the top fantasy producers in the game. The problem is, this will be the third time in four years Martinez will play no more than 123 games. A healthy Martinez is worthy of the 12th pick, let alone 19th, but I'm not sure he's worth the risk.

Jose Ramirez: The 2017 numbers are worthy. If the season ended now, Ramirez checks in as the 13th best player. The question is, can he do it again? Ramirez's contact rate is already elite, I can't see it getting better. The increase in homers is real, especially since it's not doubles suddenly clearing the fence as he's smacked 51 two-baggers on top of 27 long balls. The problem is that gravity is a strong force. Over 50 and as many as 70 percent of hitters don't match the previous season's numbers. I like Ramirez, he's not a fluke. I'm just reticent to jump him into the Top 20 while a few others with longer track records are still in the neighborhood. He's not coming back in Round 3, plus he has multiple position eligibility, something even more important in this high-injury landscape. I'm really anxious to see where the market places him.

Anthony Rizzo: It's corny analysis, but Rizzo is what he is. He may fluctuate around his baseline, but with four straight seasons of nearly identical production… he is what he is. Further, he gets extra credit for durability and the possibility of second base eligibility sometime during the season. We can debate the inane classification of second base because Rizzo dons a regular mitt to field bunts, but rules are rules and the NFBC is not going to change their eligibility designation.

Chris Sale: No need to waste bandwidth, Sale is an elite pitcher, lumped in with Kershaw, Scherzer, Kluber and Bumgarner. I don't think Kershaw or Scherzer will be on the board at 1.12. As mentioned earlier, Sale and Kluber are on a par in my book. Forced to delineate, I'll say Kluber's floor is fractionally safer will Sale's ceiling is a tick higher. The choice, at least for me, would be a mite safer or a hair more upside. Or, I let DVR decide.

Gary Sanchez: Sanchez is the one player Derek and I have talked about. He wanted to know where I was on Sanchez, is he in play for us. I hadn't really thought about it, but after some back-and-forth, I landed on absolutely. I've done some research on catcher valuation which goes beyond the scope of this discussion. Suffice it to say, catcher's stats, in a vacuum, are worth more than non-catchers. Without running the numbers, I'm going to guess Sanchez's 2018 projection will be like that of Edwin Encarnacion from a couple years ago. At the time, Encarnacion was a first-round wheel pick. Factor in the catcher inflation and were talking about a Top 10 player. So yeah, absolutely.

George Springer: After leading the league in plate appearances last season, Springer has missed a goodly chuck of action again this year. The numbers are there, but is he worth the risk with so many others having more durability? Springer deserves mention, but especially because he's looking at a second straight campaign with more caught stealing that success, curtailing his running, my lean is to let someone else take the chance.

Joey Votto: Not much to say here. Like Rizzo, Votto is remarkably durable and consistent. If we opt for the safe route, Votto jumps to the head of the pack.

OK, there you have it.

Who is in the wrong grouping?

Who did I leave out?

Make your pitch; who should DVR and I draft?