The Z Files: Pitching Category Surprises

Last week, I copped to being surprised a few times when researching some hitters. My naivety doesn't play favorites as I've been caught off guard looking at some pitchers as well. Keeping the same theme as last week, here's someone (or something) of which I was unaware for the five pitching categories.

Wins

Sparing the "wins are a silly category" narrative, I did a double-take upon seeing Zach Davies has 14 wins through Wednesday's games. In retrospect, the Milwaukee Brewers are in playoff contention so someone must be earning victories, it's just in my mind Davies has been a disappointment.

Coming into the season, Davies was on my list of starting pitchers on the verge of taking the next step. Last year, his whiffs went up while his walks went down. It's dangerous to assume skills improvements will be maintained or even bettered, and I didn't expect Davies to morph into a dominant ace, but there was a path to a few more punchouts. The righty's swinging strike rate was below average, but his first pitch strike rate was a tick better than the norm and he induced more batters to chase last season. My expectation was a small uptick in strikeouts with similar solid control.

Davies control is still better than league average, but it's not as sharp as 2016. The real issue is a plummeting swinging strike rate, dragging whiffs along with it. The chase rate is back down with overall contact up.

Davies throws a fastball averaging 90 mph (sometimes classified as a sinker) over half the time. His secondary pitches include a cutter, change-up and slow curve. Last season, his fastball, or sinker, scored as a negative pitch value while his secondary offerings measured as plus pitches. This year, his fastball is just under neutral with the others also slightly negative. Velocities are consistent, but curiously, overall spin rate is way up. Admittedly, my knowledge is deficient in this area, so consider this more reporting than analysis. What I do know is spin rate matters differently for different pitches and higher spin rate isn't always good. It just seems odd the biggest difference from last season is overall spin rate.

If you haven't figured it out by now, highlighting Davies 14 victories is a thinly veiled excuse to put him under the microscope. Continuing the dissection, through his first 16 starts, Davies recorded a 4.90 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Since then, in nine outings, he's registered a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. His strikeouts have been consistent each half with a slightly lower walk rate since July 1. The big difference lies in homers as his rate was 1.5 HR/9 through June 30, falling to just 0.5 HR/9 since. Be it something he's doing, or just variance, Davies second half surge is not surprisingly a result of fewer long balls.

Next season, while I won't be averse to owning Davies, it won't be as an SP4 or SP5 with SP3 potential, but more of an SP4 or SP5 with a decent floor. This may not seem to matter much, he's an SP4 or SP5 either way. However, it's very important with overall roster construct in mind. I'll need to look for someone else to provide a bit of latent strikeout upside from that tier.

ERA

On the Wednesday podcast with Derek Van Riper, I stated the Nationals will need Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg to win their games in a playoff series to move on, completely ignoring Gio Gonzalez. I'm surprised DVR didn't call me on that ridiculous oversight, and even more shocked no one trolled me on Twitter.

Soon after we finished recording, I was doing some work and saw Gonzalez's ERA at a tidy 2.49. Putting that in perspective, Chris Sale, who's been getting buzz as an American League Most Valuable Player candidate, sits at 2.51.

I mean, I guess I knew Gonzalez was having a really good campaign. I even alluded to the inevitable ERA correction likely not transpiring this week with the Angels and Padres on his docket. But, it just didn't click Gonzalez is sporting the fourth best ERA in the league among pitchers who have tossed at least 100 frames.

As we all know, ERA is a terrible measuring sticks for true performance. That is, outcome isn't always reflective of performance. Gonzalez's 3.92 FIP and 4.26 xFIP portend more to a league average pitcher.

When FIP and xFIP are in the same neighborhood, homers aren't likely the metric driving the ERA disparity. Sure enough, Gonzalez's 11 percent home run per fly ball is in sync with league average.

The two factors driving the southpaw's good fortune are batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and left on base percent (LOB%). A .241 BABIP is well below league average. Further, Gonzalez's hard hit rate is basically league average, suggesting he's been lucky in this regard. That is, there's no narrative supporting Gonzalez doing something to induce weak contact. With respect to his 86 percent LOB mark, average pitchers usually carry a mark around 72 percent while the better arms approach 78 percent. The fact the Nationals bullpen has been the second worst in the league speaks to just how charmed Gonzalez has been. At least on paper, expecting Gonzalez to pitch to a 4.00 ERA the rest of the way is fair.

So, maybe I was right suggesting Scherzer and Strasburg were vital to Washington's playoff chances.

WHIP

In his first six games, Jameson Taillon's WHIP was 1.33. Granted, this isn't great, but I was even higher on Taillon than Davies, so I have multiple shares and was tracking him closely. At the time, a 3.3 BB/9 was higher than I hoped, but it was early in the season and there was plenty of time for Taillon to hone his control.

Of course, Taillon then missed over a month after undergoing surgery for testicular cancer. Since returning on June 12, Taillon's WHIP has been 1.57, elevating his season mark to 1.48. I've been aware of his struggles; I just wasn't attuned to the reasons.

Since coming back from surgery, Taillon's walk rate is a respectable 2.5 BB/9, higher than last season but in sync with a reasonable 2017 expectation. The culprit for such a high WHIP is a goofy high .397 BABIP.

In his first six outings, Taillon allowed a 24 percent line drive rate with a 30 percent hard contact rate. In the 11 efforts since, the line drive rate nosed up to 25 percent while the hard-hit rate held steady. If Taillon's walk rate worsened after the return, it could be argued he isn't as sharp, but the opposite is true. Maybe there's some bad pitching contributing to the elevated BABIP, but at least using conventional analysis, Taillon's been extremely snake bit since June. As a groundball pitcher, a higher-than-average BABIP is expected. However, we're looking at something in the .305-.310 range, not one threatening .400.

Not only the rest of this season, but also in 2018, expect a much lower hit rate. There's a great chance Taillon can be acquired as a keeper in leagues with late trading deadlines, as well as rostered at an elevated surface stat-driven discount next season.

Strikeouts

Did you know Zack Greinke is sixth in the league in strikeouts? I didn't. I'm aware he's having a renaissance season, but his double-digit strikeout rate escaped me. It wouldn't be the first time he's accomplished the feat, having fanned hitters at a 10.5 K/9 clip in 2011. Greinke's well on his way to eclipsing the 200-K plateau for the sixth time, likely finishing with the second highest total in his 14-year career.

Granted, we're dealing with an elevated strikeout environment, but Greinke's strikeout rate had been in decline, with last season's 7.6 K/9 mark his lowest since 2010. His pitch mix and velocity is the same as in previous seasons. However, my untutored eye sees a guy confident in all his offerings, sequencing in a manner to keep hitters off balance, paramount in this age of swinging for the fences.

There's nothing fluky about Greinke's return to dominance. His whiffs are fully supported by his first strike percent and swinging strike rate. The reason could be he's fully healthy or simply more comfortable and over the stigma of working in a hitter's paradise like Chase Field.

Nothing portends Greinke slipping in the last quarter of the season. In fact, a pitcher of his experience, caginess and skill could thrive in September, when teams are extending their rosters, auditioning youngsters for the future.

That said, Greinke will be hard pressed to sustain his current level of excellence over another 162-game campaign. It's just gravity, it affects all players of all stature. Though, keep in mind Chase Field installed a humidor, which could be utilized in 2018. It's going to be interesting to see where the market places Greinke next year. Off-hand, he seems better as a mixed SP2, after all he will be 34 with a lot of mileage on his right arm. This season could prove to be the outlier.

On the other hand, try to name 14 starting pitchers you'll rank higher than Greinke for 2018 drafts. Yeah, I can't either.

Saves

My column, my rules, so I'm going to interject some poetic license and talk about the category in general as opposed to an individual closer. This is something I discussed previously, but intrigues me enough to circle back to the topic.

Around the All-Star break, when scrubbing saves for rest-of-season projections, I noticed league-wide saves appeared to be down. Sure enough, at the time, 47 percent of all wins had been saved, well below the 52 percent mark of the past several seasons. The level is now 48 percent, so the pace has picked up significantly since that time.

With scoring up, it makes sense to check the correlation between saves and runs. While there's a slight negative correlation, indicating more runs lead to fewer saves, it was quite small at -0.16. Something is going on beyond more runners touching home plate.

I have a few ideas, but quite honestly, especially since we've seen decent movement in the span since the break, it's best to back-burner further investigation until the offseason, when the remaining 25 percent of precincts are counted.