Oak's Corner: Thames Is Striking Out

The Week That Was

• As the Pirates have re-entered the NL Central race with their recent hot streak, our boy Felipe Rivero finally is starting to get some attention for his ridiculously good season. Rivero threw a scoreless inning Thursday against the Brewers and has now converted all nine of his save opportunities since taking over the job from Tony Watson. Rivero has thrown 51.2 innings on the season, posting obscene ratios with a 0.70 ERA and a 0.70 WHIP. He has a similar strikeout rate (10.66 K/9) as last year but has cut his walk rate from 3.86 BB/9 to 2.13 BB/9.

  Rivero has had some good fortune with a .191 BABIP and an 82.9 percent strand rate, but his 2.17 FIP confirms that he has been elite all season long. Rivero's 15.9 percent swinging strike rate fully supports the strong strikeout rate and puts him in the top 20 in baseball among all relievers in that category. Most impressively, he has suppressed hard contact exceptionally well at 20.5 percent, a mark that trails only Dellin Betances among relievers. Rivero has firmly grasped control of the Pirates closer job, and with the team playing much better of late, he has a shot to get a nice run of saves down the stretch. If we were to draft tomorrow, I'd value Rivero as a top 10 closer going forward, and I consider him a firm hold whom I'm not trading.

• A quick glance at the overall line for Eric Thames shows a solid power season with a middling batting average, but there's a lot to be concerned about with Thames recently. Thames was a polarizing guy in drafts in March with so much uncertainty coming back to the majors from the Korean League, but he came out of the box on fire in April with a .345 batting average with 11 homers and 19 RBI. However, since that first month, Thames has not only cooled off, but he has been a negative for fantasy owners. Since May 1st, in 214 at bats, Thames is hitting only .210 with 12 homers and an incredibly low 25 RBI, barely higher than what he had in April alone.

  Most concerning is the frequency that Thames has struck out since the start of May, with 79 punch outs in 252 plate appearances, good for a 31.3 percent strikeout rate after he struck out at only a 22.3 percent clip in April. More recently, Thames has been striking out even more, with a 36.5 percent strikeout rate in 156 plate appearances since June 1st. He has managed a 14.6 percent walk rate, but even that rate has fallen off each month of the season. One promising aspect when looking at Thames profile is that when he does hit the ball, he hits it hard with a 42.3 percent hard hit rate and he has been over 40 percent in three of four months. As the season has gone on, his line drive rate has decreased each month, while his fly ball rate has increased each month, peaking at 51.9 percent so far in July. The fly balls plus the hard hit rate will allow him to keep hitting home runs, but his overall trends are concerning for the rest of his stats, especially the batting average with the soaring strikeout rate. It's likely very tough to trade Thames at the moment due to his slump, but if he had a couple of good games and interest increased I'd look to move him rapidly.

• Yoenis Cespedes dealt with injury for most of the first half of the season, including missing more than a month on the DL with a hamstring injury. Injuries happen (especially with Cespy), but the disappointing aspect of his season has been how unproductive he has been while actually in the lineup. His .277 batting average has been serviceable, but in 47 games, Cespedes has hit only nine homers and driven in 22 runs, numbers that hurt fantasy teams in a big way considering his preseason ADP of 54 overall. A closer look at Cespedes shows that while his walks are down more than two percent from 2016, his strikeouts are at a career-low 16.5 percent.

  Cespedes' batted ball profile is interesting in that his soft contact and hard contact are the highest of his career. The soft contact likely is coming from his increased infield fly ball rate, which sits at 16.2 percent, the highest of his career. With his high hard hit rate and career high fly ball rate, the power really should be following, but his FB/HR rate is 12.2 percent, the lowest of his career. The key for me on Cespedes is whether he can stay on the field and whether his hamstring is fully healed, but if you're willing to take that risk, I absolutely love trying to buy him low right now. The decreased strikeouts while increasing his hard hit rate is a great sign, and I think a white-hot Cespy streak is coming…and soon.

• Well then, where did you come from Tommy Pham? A year after a 78-game stretch with the Cardinals where he hit a mere .226 with nine homers and two stolen bases, Pham has burst on the scene in a huge way in 2017. After homering Thursday, Pham is now hitting .309 with 13 homers, 13 steals and a .924 OPS. In his two prior seasons with the Cardinals (he played 52 and 78 games), Pham didn't run at all, only registering two swipes in each season, so his 13 steals are a nice surprise.

  The biggest difference between 2017 and 2016 Tommy Pham so far has been the dramatic drop in his strikeout rate. In 2016, Pham had an incredibly high 38.8 percent strikeout rate, especially for someone with only nine homers, but he has dropped that rate to a more manageable 25 percent this season. The one surprise I had while looking deeper into Pham was how consistently hard he has hit in the ball in his major league stints. In 2015, he had a 38.1 percent hard hit rate, followed by 42.7 percent in 2016 and a current mark of 38.2 percent. His fly ball rate is low (22.6 percent so far), and the 32.4 percent HR/FB rate is obviously not going to sustain, but with his speed and how hard he hits the ball, I like his chances to provide value across the board, especially hitting second, as long as he can keep the strikeout rate at least where it is currently. Anyone who added him in free agency has scored big time, and I'm holding him and using him in my lineup every week across all league sizes right now.

• Coming into July, Dustin Pedroia was providing value in batting average with a .294 mark but he had only hit two homers and two stolen bases. While the average is important, especially in current day MLB, it's hard to play someone in your lineup every week without at least getting a bit of pop or speed. Pedroia has exploded in July, doubling up his homers on the year with four already in July in only 17 games. Even more impressively, Pedroia has managed to drive in 23 runs already this month, which actually leads all of baseball (yes, even more than Nolan Arenado).

  Pedroia never has been someone with a high hard hit rate, and that is still the case with his 28.6 percent rate so far this season. However, he makes a ton of contact to make up for it and that gives him a consistently high batting average floor. Pedroia has dropped the strikeout rate to an eight-year low of 8.5 percent and has bumped up his walk rate to 11.1 percent. The Red Sox lineup has finally woken up after a sluggish start to the season, which will help Pedroia's counting cats. It should be remembered that he did hit .318 with 105 runs last year in what was a very sneaky valuable season. Pedroia is a favorite of mine, and while his days of stealing bases are gone, I love the batting average he provides year in and year out while chipping in elsewhere at a middle infield position. I like him a lot going forward this summer to be an asset as the Red Sox offense stays hot and the runs start to really roll in for Pedroia.
  

Before we get into a couple of interesting possible pickups this week, a quick note on a couple of past members of this section. I wrote up Luis Castillo a few weeks ago, and while he's now owned in most leagues, if he is somehow still available in your league, grab him, as he has two starts this week. Despite allowing a three-run homer to Jake Lamb in the first inning on Thursday, he pitched very well and settled in nicely after the rough start. Castillo has faced an absolutely brutal schedule through his first six games with Arizona and Washington twice, as well as a start in Coors but has still managed a 3.86 ERA through those outings. I love his stuff and really enjoy watching him pitch, which is always a nice bonus. Go bid on him right now if he is somehow sitting there in your league.

Similarly, we have discussed Jhoulys Chacin, but if he's still out there or has been dropped, he's a must bid this week. Chacin's insane home/road splits have been maintained since the last time we discussed them, and he now has a 1.94 ERA in 65 innings at Petco Park. Chacin has two home starts this week against the Mets and Pirates, and it worked great last time we grabbed him for a home two-step, and I'm going back to the well again until he finally gives me a reason not to.
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Amed Rosario: The rumors are starting to swirl pretty heavily that the Mets are going to call up the 21-year-old shortstop after the trade deadline. That could be easy if the Mets are able to trade a few veterans before then to pave the way, but it could be a bit more complicated and crowded if they aren't able to swing any deals. Whatever the Mets front office may say about 2017, at 11 games out of the Wild Card and a lot of teams between them and said Wild Card, they are done for this year and will start prepping for 2018. Rosario, a consensus top 10 prospect in all of baseball, will be their starting shortstop in 2018, and they would best served letting him get his feet wet with a couple months of action at the big league level this year. If your league allows you to add minor leagues in your weekly FAAB and Rosario is still sitting there, this week is the time to grab. Likewise, if you play in a league with NFBC-type rules where a player has to be called up to bid on him, it might make sense to think about how much you bid the next couple weeks as to save some coin for Rosario, particularly if you need a middle infielder to help you make a run in your league.

In Rosario's Triple-A debut, he has done nothing but pump up the hype, hitting .330 with seven homers and 17 stolen bases in 87 games. This is after Rosario hit .341 in his call-up to Double-A last year in 54 games. If he does get the call to start August in New York, the bidding is going to be aggressive among any teams who have money left, as Rosario is likely to be the biggest impact prospect called up, aside from a token September call-up or two, as if he comes up, it's to play shortstop every day for the Mets. If you have money left, try and give it a couple weeks before spending it, as it might come in handy on a Rosario call-up, and if you're allowed to bid on him now, just do it.

R.A. Dickey: Don't get me wrong, even thinking about adding Dickey scares me, but it has to be pointed how well he has pitched recently. In his last six starts, Dickey has thrown 40 innings, allowing only eight runs total, good for a 1.80 ERA in that span. In those starts, Dickey has allowed one run or fewer in five of six and has struck out 32 batters against only 10 walks. Of course, Dickey's numbers on the season don't paint the best picture with a 4.14 ERA and under six strikeouts per nine. He does limit hard contact well at 26.9 percent, but as is the case with knuckle ballers, when they do hit them hard, they often don't come back, as he has allowed more than a homer per nine for five straight years. My biggest concern with Dickey's two-start week is that they both come on the road and one of them comes against the Diamondbacks in Chase Field. Dickey has been much better at home so far this year with a 3.33 ERA in Atlanta and a 5.36 ERA on the road. While I like the second start against Philly, and Dickey can be a guy to use while he is on a roll, that Arizona start just scares me too much and I'm going to pass on Dickey this weekend despite the recent excellence.

A Closer Look

With the trade of both of their primary set-up men to the Nationals, the line behind Santiago Casilla in Oakland got a lot shorter and a bit murkier. I think the A's would love to move Casilla before the deadline, but they likely won't be able to get much of anything for him. Casilla's strikeout rate has dropped from over 10 K/9 in 2016 to 8.58 K/9 this year and with his ERA floating around 4.00; he just has no future with this rebuilding team. As I wrote a few weeks ago, I liked adding Sean Doolittle as the replacement for the last two months of the season, but after they traded Doolittle, I feel the A's are eyeing Blake Treinen as their closer down the stretch.

Treinen flamed out quickly as the Nationals closer to start the year, posting a 9.00 ERA over 10 innings with an ugly 17 hits to go along with eight walks. Treinen's ERA now sits at 5.45 ERA, but he has had some misfortune mixed in there as shown by his 3.74 FIP. Most glaring in that regard is the .366 BABIP and 67.4 percent strand rate, both numbers significantly off his career averages. What I like most about Treinen comes down to his stuff and his ground ball rate. Treinen throws 96 mph with movement and while his strikeouts aren't huge, he was in the mid eights per nine innings range the last two seasons. The ground ball rate is what I really like, as he has been over 60 percent for the last three seasons. The ground balls, combined with the decent strikeout rate and nasty stuff, makes him an intriguing bullpen guy and one the A's should test in the closer role down the stretch to see if maybe he could be the guy for 2018. In deeper leagues or more shallow ones where you may be desperate for saves, I would grab him now, and if Casilla stays past the deadline, you could then decide to drop Treinen, then if the A's seem set on Casilla keeping him the role, but I'm betting against it.

As the trade deadline approaches, we are likely to see a couple of closer jobs open up and it can be very key to anticipate those moves and grab the next guy up before a trade happens. In the case of the White Sox, they acted before the deadline and dealt closer David Robertson and the closer in waiting, Tommy Kahnle, to the Yankees in the same deal. They received Tyler Clippard from the Yankees, and it appears that he will slot into the closer role for the Sox immediately. Clippard has been quite poor this year so far, sporting a 4.95 ERA in 36.1 innings while allowing 1.73 homers per nine. His strikeouts are solid at 10.4 K/9, but he has significant issues with walks, allowing 4.71 walks per nine. I'm not a Clippard fan and haven't been for a few years as I don't like my closer to have such major home run issues, and if he's walking a guy every other inning as he is so far this year, that makes for base runners aboard when he gives up the inevitable long ball. If you need saves at this point, you have to give Clippard some sort of a bid, but I feel strongly that the White Sox should instead have given the job to Anthony Swarzak; he has been good this year and in deeper leagues, I'm going to bid on Swarzak where I have an open roster spot betting on a Clippard failure.

Series of the Weekend

Cardinals at Cubs. While the Nationals/Diamondbacks series in Phoenix seems likely to have the most fireworks, the standings implications and pitching matchups for the Cubs – Cardinals series makes it the most interesting one to watch for me this weekend. The Cubs and their struggles in the first half were one of the bigger stories in baseball, but they have come out of the break on fire winning their first six games. The Cardinals are three games under .500, but with no one in the NL Central running away with it, they find themselves only 4.5 games behind the Brewers and 3.5 games behind the Cubs. This weekend could determine whether the Cardinals consider themselves a buyer or a seller at the trade deadline. With a series win or even a sweep, they would be right back in the mix, but if they were to lose the series and leave Chicago further behind and looking up at a hot Cubs team, they could decide to move some veteran pieces.

Both teams will be firing three of their best starters in their series with the Cubs sending out Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and recently acquired Jose Quintana, while the Cardinals counter with Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha. Wacha is a fascinating study this year as he has had a true roller coaster of a season. He started out very well with a 2.74 ERA after his first seven starts. He then encountered a brutal six-start stretch where he made it through five innings only once and posted an 8.17 ERA with 15 walks in 25.1 innings. After many fantasy owners dropped Wacha, he responded with likely his best stretch of the season as he has a 1.01 ERA over his last four starts and features a 31:5 K:BB ratio in those 26.2 innings. It has been a wild case of hot and cold with Wacha, but he takes the mound on Sunday for his biggest start of the year and his start could be a the one that decides this huge series.

The Cubs vaunted offense has been fairly average most of the year, and they currently rank 13th in MLB in runs scored and team OPS. However, they have finally ramped it up in July, posting a .894 OPS as a team in 14 games. Wilson Contreras, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant have been the hottest regulars of the month, all posting an OPS over 1.000. Contreras has been especially on fire, leading the squad with four homers and 35 total bases in July. All of baseball expected the Cubs to turn it on at some point and this weekend series against their archrival could show us if they have truly turned the corner and will begin to run away with the division.