Oak's Corner: Fantasy Team Deep Dive

The baseball season is long, no doubt, but we're finally at a point where it's time to take a long, hard look at your standings and see where you currently fit in. Your actual spot in the standings isn't especially important, but as we reach the end of May it is important to look at your players and where you stand within each specific category. We're far enough along in the season to see whether you have any real deficiencies and where you may need to react and adjust through trades or free agency moves. It's not even close to panic time, but it's time to be real with yourself and your team and figure out your direction for the next stretch of the season.

If you find yourself doing well in your league, this is still a good opportunity to take a look at your squad and figure out where you can get better because you will hit bumps in the road. I have failed at this in the past by resting on good teams that were cruising and found myself unprepared when injuries hit because I was lax in adding depth. If you're struggling right now, hard look at your team is most important. When I am trailing in the standings, I remind myself just how long baseball is and I attack my league in short-term chunks. If I have 60 league points, I study the categories and get myself to 70, stabilize there for a bit and then work on another small chunk gain. I have gotten back into many races taking this short-term strategy, as it's way less daunting than trying to figure out how to gain 40 points on the league leader. You have more than four months remaining, and with a few baby steps and multiple junctures, you can find yourself in the mix when August rolls around. As always, it's baseball, grind away every week; that's what makes it so darn fun and rewarding.

The Week That Was

• I love St. Louis' Matt Carpenter as a player and for his all-over the infield positional eligibility in fantasy leagues. He does have nine homers already in 2017, but it's shocking to see him sporting a .234 batting average nearly two months into the season. He's striking out a little bit more this year (21.9 percent), but he also boosted his walk rate up to a career-high 18.5 percent. Coming into the season, I love Carpenter's hard hit rate trending up each season, reaching 41.9 percent in 2016. With his average in the .230's, I admit I was pleasantly surprised when I saw he has actually increased his hard hit rate to 43.8 percent so far in 2017. He also has increased his fly ball rate from 43.2 percent to 49.5 percent. Carpenter's babip right now is at by far the lowest of his career at .250, and if his historical trends are any indication, plus the hard contact increase, that number is going up. All of his trends make me believe that Carp is going to top his career-high of 28 homers in 2015 and the batting average is going to rise soon. His owner drafted him early because he liked him, so a trade may be tough, but I'm certainly making offers for him right now in every league, a lot of good is coming and coming rapidly.

• After a 2014 rookie season where White Sox Jose Abreu hit 36 homers, he was thrust into the superstar category after only one season. His homers declined in 2015 and again in 2016, and we were left wondering what his true power level was coming into 2017. After an April in which Abreu hit .280, but with only two homers, it appeared that the power was declining, but Abreu has flipped the script in a big way in May. He has eight big flies in 93 at-bats with 19 runs and 16 RBI, posting an impressive .963 OPS. The power seems to be well supported with a career-high 38.2 percent hard hit rate combined with a career-high 37.1 percent fly ball rate. In addition, Abreu is striking out at his lowest rate ever at 16.3 percent. Abreu's declining power caused me to not target him at his ADP in drafts this year, but his batted ball profile indicates that he has found the power stroke again, and as it warms up in US Cellular over the summer, I think 30-plus homers are definitely on the way with a shot at matching his 2014 total.

• As an example of why saves can be such a frustrating category even if you have some named closers, take a look at some of the struggling teams across baseball. David Robertson, A.J. Ramos and Hector Neris: A couple of mid-tier closers in drafts and a hyped setup man in waiting who quickly fell into the job, have combined for a grand total of two saves in the month of May. Robertson has been particularly frustrating, posting a 2.65 ERA with a 12.7 K/9 rate, but has only managed five saves all season and hasn't even seen a save opportunity since April 29th. A trade to the Nationals, which almost seems inevitable after all the rumors, cannot come soon enough for Robertson owners.

• Man, is the Padres offense just terrible right now. So far in 21 May contests, the Padres have managed to score only 65 runs, a full 13 runs fewer than the next worst team, the San Francisco Giants. Across that stretch, the Padres have compiled MLB-worsts in batting average (.218) and OPS (.656). It's no surprise that when you factor in their bottom five 5.13 team ERA, the Padres are an abysmal 6-15 so far this month. It goes without saying to start your pitchers against the Padres in season-long and DFS, and when you're trying to find streamers each week in FAAB, it would be wise to check what six or seven pitchers get to twirl against them during the week.

• As an A's fan, it was tough to see Addison Russell hit 21 homers and drive in 95 runs for the Cubs as a 22-year-old in 2016 after the A's had traded him in 2014. Russell seemed to be a guy very much on the rise but has had an extremely rough opening to the 2017 season. Russell is hitting a meager .214 with only three homers through his first 259 at-bats. He is striking out less and has dropped his swinging strike rate, but he's not driving the ball, as his hard hit rate has plummeted to an ugly 24 percent while his ISO has dropped nearly 50 points to .132. Russell dealt with a back injury in spring training and had a sore right shoulder this month that could be affecting production, but the profile doesn't look good at the moment with so little hard contact. Russell is only 23, but the batting average has been an issue the last two years (and he hasn't been a stolen base threat). If the power does not turn around quickly, his fantasy value could take a big hit in 2017. I was high on him coming into the season, but I'm concerned and not targeting him in trades at the moment. If I owned him, I would be looking to see if I can find a trade partner who still values his upside for this season.

• A lot has been said about Michael Conforto the last two seasons (usually about his playing time issues), but man is he just raking right now. Conforto is hitting .341 through 41 games and has turned it on even more in May, hitting .355 with 19 RBI and is tied with Billy Hamilton for the most runs with 24. In addition to all the batting average goodness, Conforto also has 13 homers to go along with his absurd 1.149 OPS. He has led off most games for the Mets, but his run production could see even more of a boost if Terry Collins moves him to the three hole at some point this season. His hard hit rate really stuck out in his first two seasons with the Mets with 40.9 percent in 2015 and 39.9 percent in 2016. Conforto has hit the ball even better so far in 2017, with a current 46.9 percent hard hit rate, good for seventh in all of baseball. This dude is awesome and an absolute gem in any league, especially keeper leagues, and one would assume he is finally to the point where not even Terry Collins can keep him down.

  FAAB Feelings
  

  
  
  • Robert Gsellman: Gsellman was popular during the fantasy draft season after a great 2016 debut where he posted a 2.42 ERA in 44.2 innings and followed that up with an excellent 2017 spring training to lock down a spot in the Mets rotation. As May nears an end, he has been dropped in a lot of leagues after a brutal start to the season where he sports 5.45 ERA over 44.2 innings with a drop in his strikeout rate to 6.65 K/9 after posting 8.4 K/9 rate in his debut last year. After a particularly rough outing at Milwaukee, the Mets demoted Gsellman to the bullpen for a couple of outing before putting him back in the rotation on Wednesday. He pitched fairly well, although it was against the Padres (see above), allowing three runs in six innings. He did manage to limit the damage to only six base runners. Gsellman's velocity is only down a half-mile per hour, but his swinging strikeout rate has crashed to only 6.9 percent, which adds to my concern about the drop in strikeouts. He has managed to keep his ground ball rate consistently high with a 54 percent mark this year, the same as 2016. It needs to be noted that Gsellman hasn't had luck on his side with a .355 babip and a very low 56.4 percent strand rate that has led to his FIP being only 4.29, more than two points lower than his ERA. I think Gsellman is worth a stab right now with the hopes that the luck normalizes some, but he also needs to find his strikeouts again to be the pitcher he was in 2016. The Mets rotation is a bit all over the place right now, with Steven Matz and Seth Lugo close to returning, but with all their issues, if Gsellman can right the ship, I think he sticks in the rotation, which would give him a two-start home week against Milwaukee and Pittsburgh this week. I'm bidding on him in 15-team leagues but also tossing a small bid on him in 12-teamers for the two-step with the thought that he could stick on my roster if he can locate his strikeouts.

  • Matt Garza: I just don't think I can do it with Garza despite what has been a very strong start to his 2017 campaign with some real improvements. Through 35 innings, Garza has a respectable 3.60 ERA with nearly seven strikeouts per nine. The stat that sticks out that Garza has improved most is with his walks, with a decreased 1.54 BB/9 rate after being over 3.00 walks per nine in each of his past three seasons. Another note on the plus side is that Garza's swinging strike rate has jumped up nearly two points to 9.6 percent. I just don't think Garza has enough upside to make up for the obvious downside. He has had an ERA of 5.63 and 4.51 the last two seasons, numbers that scare me enough to not trust the improvement he has made this year. Further, even with his strong start to the season, he's still allowing a high 38.3 percent hard hit rate, and I think a couple of ugly blow-ups are coming soon. He has two starts this week, one at the Mets and one at home against the Dodgers, but I'm passing in 12-teamers and I've decided to pass in 15-teamers. Garza may hang in there and help teams in deeper leagues and beat me for a while, but I'm not taking the ride. I'm sure it's going to crash and burn badly at some point.

  • Tyler Anderson: At first glance, Anderson's 5.40 ERA seems like someone to fly right by on the free agent list, and the fact he sits at only 29 percent ownership in NFBC 12-team leagues proves people are doing just that. Anderson is currently in the midst of a fantastic four-start stretch that culminated Thursday with a gem in Philadelphia. He tossed seven innings and only allowed one earned run while punching out seven. Over the last four starts, Anderson has allowed only seven runs total while striking out 32 batters over 24.2 innings. The recent stretch has boosted Anderson's K/9 rate on the season to 9.19 K/9. Anderson flashed well last season with the Rockies, posting a 3.54 ERA with a 7.8 K/9 rate in 114.1 big league innings. The bump in his strikeout rate, especially recently, is an exciting aspect of Anderson's profile and is fully supported by a bump in his swinging strikeout rate to 12 percent. After suppressing hard contact well last season at 28.2 percent, he has maintained that this season with a similar 29.6 percent hard hit rate. If Anderson can recapture his 50.9 percent ground ball rate from 2016 with the increase in strikeouts from this year, he would have an extremely interesting profile, even pitching half his games in Coors Field. Anderson gets two starts this week, the first of which, facing the Mariners at home, is scary, but he's rewarded for that tough start with a second one against the Padres (again, see above) in the much friendlier Petco Park. Adding any Coors start is always risky, but I really like what I have seen from Anderson recently and am going to risk the two-step (while holding my breath for the first start) in 12 and 15 teamers this week where he's available.
    
  
  A Closer Look

  The National carousel of closers might have landed finally on someone who can hold the job for a while, or at least until they add a veteran closer at the trade deadline. Manager Dusty Baker confirmed that Koda Glover officially has the job, one that he earned by pitching well despite a stint on the DL with a hip injury. Glover has a 2.57 ERA in 14 innings with an 11:2 K:BB ratio while allowing zero homers. He has been effective avoiding hard hit balls so far with a 16.7 percent hard hit rate and has also induced an impressive 21 percent infield fly ball rate. Glover is only 24 and will likely have a few hiccups in his first stint as a major league closer, but the stuff is there (average velocity is 96.4 mph), and he's clearly the best current option in the Nationals bullpen. He takes the reins for a top five team that's likely to provide him with a lot of save opportunities, giving him a lot of value with the biggest risk being the likelihood of the Nats making a trade for a closer.

  Tony Watson started off the season very well by allowing only one earned run in April but he has stumbled lately, allowing at least a run in four of his last seven outings. His ERA is now up to 3.54 and his strikeout and walk numbers are trending in the wrong direction. Watson's strikeouts are down to 6.64 K/9 (from 7.71 in 2016) and his walks have risen to 3.54 BB/9 (from 2.66 in 2016). His swinging strike rate has remained at 12.8 percent, which gives promise for the strikeouts to bump back up, but it's worth noting that his velocity currently sits at a career-low 92.4 mph. On the plus side, Watson has continued his avoidance of hard contact with an excellent hard hit rate of 17.1 percent.

  If Watson continues to struggle, Felipe Rivero is waiting in the wings and has been electric this season. Through 24.2 innings, Rivero owns a sparkling 27:5 K:BB ratio, helping him post a 0.73 ERA and a 0.81 WHIP. He has significantly boosted his velocity so far this year nearly two mph up to 97.5 mph, something managers usually love to have in their closer. If you have a roster spot available for a stash, I'd grab Rivero now in the event Watson loses the job or gets moved at the deadline if the Pirates fall out of the race, as he's a free agent after this season.

  Series of the Weekend

  Cardinals at Rockies. While the Cubs visiting the Dodgers may be the sexier matchup of the weekend, I'm looking forward to another NL Central vs. NL West matchup in Coors. The Rockies have been the surprising team of 2017, and the most interesting aspect of their hot start is the pitching they're getting from their young starters, especially recently. With their ace Jon Gray on the shelf after only 12.2 innings, the Rockies have managed to toss up the fifth best ERA in baseball in May, an amazing feat considering nearly half of their 22 May games have been in Coors Field.

  On the offensive side of the ball, the Rockies rank second in all of baseball in runs scored. Charlie Blackmon has been an absolute monster, leading the MLB in RBI even though he has led off in every game he has started. He reached 40 RBI earlier this week, the fastest a leadoff hitter has ever gotten to 40 RBI in a season. After a slow start, Carlos Gonzalez has finally warmed up, hitting .300 in May with four multi-hit games in a row and seven multi-hit games in his last 14 games.

  The Cardinals come into Coors needing to get things going after losing to two of three to the Dodgers this week. The Cards are only 23-21, but in the NL Central that puts them only a game out, as the Cubs have struggled a bit coming off their World Series victory. The Cubs are going to get hot and the Cardinals better be ready to do the same if they want to hang in the race. St. Louis has pitched the ball well all season, trailing only the Dodgers with a team ERA of 3.44 led by the exceptional start of Mike Leake. Surprisingly, the Cardinals find themselves struggling to score runs, ranking in the bottom 10of the league with only 193 runs.

  This matchup promises to be a lot of fun as the high-flying Rockies offense goes against the strong Cardinals pitching staff while the struggling Cardinals offense will try and get on track against three of the Rockies young surging starters. Put all of that that in the exciting environment of Coors Field, and we have the best series to watch this weekend.