Minor League Barometer: Down But Not Out

Players who begin the year on the disabled list often get downgraded in fantasy circles, for obvious reasons. The player's return date is in question, it is unclear how effective that player will be upon his return, and there is always the possibility of a setback or recurring injury. As a result, many fantasy owners shy away from said player. In the prospect realm, injuries should be viewed a bit differently. While serious injuries such as the tearing of the UCL ligament will set back a prospect's estimated time of arrival to the big-leagues, other injuries should be viewed as less troublesome in terms of prospect development.

Take the example of J.P. Crawford, budding shortstop prospect for the Philadelphia Phillies. Crawford missed the first month of the season due to an oblique injury. However, he was never supposed to make the team out of spring training anyway. In fact, he wasn't supposed to see the big leagues at all in 2015. Still, some uninformed chatter developed about a lingering issue that could hold Crawford's development back.

What ended up happening? Crawford has hit .364 with a .481 on-base percentage in 12 games for High-A Clearwater since returning from the DL. He also has two steals and a home run over that span. Crawford's timeline to the big leagues has not been affected at all by the injury. In sum, be careful which sources you trust, and don't be afraid when a highly-touted prospect, particularly one at the lower levels of the minors, suffers a few bumps or bruises.

Let's dive into the rest of this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Blake Snell, P, TB – Snell has not allowed a run in 46 innings pitched this season. Yes, you read that correctly. Between High-A and Double-A, Snell has been unscored upon, flaunting a 0.00 ERA. Perhaps just as staggering, the 22-year-old southpaw has only allowed 18 hits over that span. As a result, opposing batters are hitting a putrid .120 against him. When hitters do make contact, Snell usually induces a ground ball, as witnessed by his 1.47 GO:AO ratio. Add in 54 strikeouts in 46 innings, and the argument could be made that Snell has had the best start of any pitcher in the minors to begin the 2015 campaign. Snell's streak will certainly come to an end at some point, but he is vaulting back up the prospect ranks in the process.

Steven Matz, P, NYM – With Noah Syndergaard in the big leagues, Matz assumes the throne as the top prospect in the Mets organization. He's been superb at Triple-A thus far in 2015. The 23-year-old lefty has a 1.80 ERA and 54:19 K;BB ratio through 50 innings in the hitter-friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League. The Mets are flush with starting pitching right now, even with Zack Wheeler on the DL, and both Matz and Syndergaard have been floated as possible trade bait. You can never have too much pitching, though, and while Matz does not get the pub that Syndergaard does, he might have just as much upside.

Eduardo Rodriguez, P, BOS – The struggles of the Boston rotation at the MLB level have been well documented; however, it remains to be seen when the Red Sox will give Rodriguez or fellow Triple-A rotation mate Brian Johnson a shot. While both pitchers have had stellar starts to the 2015 campaign, Rodriguez is younger and possesses more upside. Originally a Baltimore Oriole, Rodriguez came to the BoSox in the Andrew Miller deal last season. The 22-year-old southpaw has a 3.05 ERA and 38:7 K:BB ratio through 41.1 innings for Triple-A Pawtucket. Rodriguez has improved his control over the past year or so, and not surprisingly the results have followed. If the Boston rotation continues to slump, Rodriguez could be among the options considered. Henry Owens, a prospect more highly touted than either Rodriguez or Johnson, is struggling with command issues to begin the year despite possessing lights-out stuff.

Austin Meadows, OF, PIT – Meadows barely got off the ground in 2014, a season marred by a hamstring injury. A first-round selection in 2013, Meadows played in just 45 games last year. However, when he finally took the field he slashed .317/.394/488 with three home runs, 16 RBI and two stolen bases at Low-A. He has started on a similar tear at High-A in 2015, hitting .314/.386/.414 with one home run, 14 RBI and three steals. The Pirates are betting on his power stroke to develop as he matures, and he should feel more comfortable on the base paths as he gets further and further removed from the hamstring issues of a season ago. Meadows has looked much more like the player the Pirates expected when they drafted him in 2013.

CHECK STATUS

Aaron Nola, P, PHI – Nola is a polished pitching phenom out of LSU who has found little resistance since entering the minors last season. Through seven starts in Double-A, the 21-year-old righty has a 1.77 ERA. Nola's control has been superior, as he has walked just five batters thus far. Despite the early success, Nola's strikeout numbers have been a bit depressed, as he has fanned 32 batters in 45.2 innings. His ceiling is the real question here. Will he be an innings eater? Definitely. Above-average? Certainly. But a rotation anchor in the mold of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee or even Cole Hamels? I think Phillies fans and fantasy owners alike will be disappointed if they are expecting Nola to become a future ace. His ceiling is a No. 2 starter, while a No. 3 slotting is most likely.

Colin Rea, P, SD – A start like Rea's is difficult to ignore, even for a 24-year-old in Double-A who was just a 12th round pick in 2011. Rea has a 1.38 ERA and 45:9 K:BB ratio through 52 innings. Still, the refrain will be the same for Rea as it is for other prospects of his age and stature. He's a bit old for this level, he is not overpowering, and it remains to be seen if his prior control issues are gone, or if he is simply just hot coming out of the gate. Still, he more than held his own in the hitter-friendly California League last season, posting a 3.88 ERA and 118:37 K:BB ratio in 139 innings at High-A. Those numbers are even better than they appear because of the conditions he was facing. Rea is a sleeper prospect for a Padres farm system that lost a lot of firepower in the offseason (most notably Max Fried and Matt Wisler).

Trey Michalczewski, 3B, CWS – The 20-year-old third baseman is surging for the ChiSox. Michalczewski is batting .361 with three home runs and nine RBI over his last 10 games at High-A. The White Sox are hoping the power surge is a sign of things to come, and not an aberration. Michalczewski hit 10 home runs all of last season. Coming straight out of high school, the seventh round draft pick has been pushed rather aggressively by the club, but he has not looked overmatched at any level. Overall, he is slashing .281/.359/.475 with four home runs and 28 RBI in 38 games. As long as Michalczewski continues to be productive, there will be a spot for him, and if he starts to develop that home run swing, he could emerge as a viable solution for the White Sox at the hot corner.

Daniel Robertson, SS, TB – Robertson was also acquired by the Rays in a trade over the last year, but did not come over with quite the same publicity as fellow shortstop prospect Willy Adames. While the 19-year-old Adames has hit his stride at High-A and is penciled in as the shortstop of the future for the Rays, Robertson will certainly have something to say about that designation. Robertson is a level ahead of Adames, and has been on a hot streak of his own recently. Robertson is batting .400 with one home run and 10 RBI over his last 10 games. Robertson has pop for a middle infielder, and he is not afraid to take a walk either. He hit .310 with a .402 OBP last season at High-A in the Oakland A's organization. There are concerns about his fielding, but his bat will allow the Rays to find a place for him to play. The Rays have always been big on versatility in the field, so expect Robertson to try out some other positions along his journey towards the majors.

DOWNGRADE

Teoscar Hernandez, OF, HOU – Hernandez exploded onto the prospect map last season. Hernandez bashed 21 home runs while swiping 33 bases, showing that ever-intriguing combination of power and speed. That combo has been present in 2015, but the batting average has taken a nosedive. Hernandez has never been a .300 hitter since entering the minors in 2011, but he has also never hit below .240. However, he is off to an abysmal start this season, batting just .163 through 33 games. Hernandez has always been prone to the strikeout as well, and that trend has continued in 2015. He has fanned 39 times in 33 games this season, after striking out on 153 occasions in just 119 games last year. The lack of plate discipline is a huge red flag, and may only be further exposed at the higher levels. Still, the Astros are first in strikeouts, first in home runs and first in steals at the big-league level, so clearly there is a theme developing within the Houston organization, and Hernandez certainly fits the bill.

Tyler Kolek, P, MIA – It's been a bit of a rough go for Kolek since entering the minors. The power high school arm has battled control issues during his brief time with the Marlins. Though hardly a large sample size, the teenager has a 4.60 ERA and 24:15 K:BB ratio through 31.1 innings at Low-A. Though he was drafted for upside and considered a bit of a project, he has allowed entirely too many base runners. Furthermore, opposing batters are hitting .261 against him, not exactly dominating stuff from a pitcher drafted with the No. 2 overall selection. Kolek is clearly a work in progress, and is going to have to improve his command, as well as his off-speed pitches as a whole. Kolek is a ways away from making an impact at the big-league level.

Hunter Harvey, P, BAL – The young arms for the Orioles have not quite developed as they had hoped. Kevin Gausman has not panned out, and Dylan Bundy is still looking to regain his pre-injury form. Harvey was the third in the highly touted trio but has run into injury problems of his own. He has been shut down for six weeks due to elbow/forearm tightness. Despite a trip to Dr. James Andrews, Tommy John surgery was not recommended at this time, as Harvey had a PHP injection and will simply rest for the time being. However, it would hardly be surprising if Harvey eventually had to go under the knife, just like his counterpart Bundy. That would likely put the 20-year-old out through the end of the 2016 season.

Jorge Alfaro, C, TEX – Catching prospects always have a difficult time panning out for a variety of reasons. Not only do they have a steep learning curve when it comes to learning the position on the field, but because of the toll it takes on a young player's body, often the better players are simply moved out from behind the plate to conserve their legs (see Wil Myers, among others). Alfaro has the physical gifts and build to stick behind the plate, while also showing the ability to handle the bat. He has had at least 17 home runs and 61 RBI in each of the last two seasons. However, he has been cold at the dish recently, batting just .190 with 13 strikeouts and zero home runs over his last 10 games. Alfaro continues to strike out at an alarming rate, he does not draw any walks, and will likely never hit much higher than his current .264 average. While he remains one of the better catching prospects in baseball, and his expectations are diminished slightly because of his position, Alfaro is still struggling lately.