Josh Tomlin

Tomlin proved he still had something left in the tank in 2019. Despite looking cooked in 2018 with a 6.14 ERA in 70.1 innings for Cleveland, he managed to win an Opening Day bullpen spot in Atlanta and provided them with 79.1 innings of good relief work, finishing with a 3.74 ERA, his best mark since 2015. Despite the improved results, the veteran was basically the same guy he'd been the last several years in most respects. He struck out very few batters (15.9%) and couldn't keep the ball on the ground (33.5% groundball rate), but his excellent 2.2 BB% kept traffic off the basepaths. He did at least showcase increased heat, with his still-slow fastball averaging 89.3 mph, his highest mark since 2013, the result of a trip to Driveline which may have extended his career by a few more seasons. While it's impressive that he's still around, his odds of moving into a fantasy-relevant role are slim.

Home runs had long been a problem for Tomlin, but his gopheritis reached a new extreme last season. He had two separate four-homer implosions in the first month and gave up an almost unfathomable 15 long balls in his first seven appearances (31 innings). In May, the Indians transitioned Tomlin to a relief role before giving him a few more starts in September after the division and their seeding in the postseason had already been decided. The right-hander was then left off the ALDS roster. The home runs remained prevalent after his transition to relief (2.28 HR/9), and he didn't miss more bats after shortening up (6.2 K/9). His walk rate was low last season and that's nothing new (career 3.5% BB%), but in Tomlin's case, he throws too many strikes. Some rebuilding team could bring Tomlin in as a starter to eat innings, but it's tough to see him pitching well enough to maintain a rotation spot.

Tomlin has made a living off eating innings with a control-based approach when given the chance to start. He's topped 8.0 K/9 in just one season, but has never carried a walk rate above 2.3 BB/9. In fact, his walk rate has dipped in each of his last four full seasons, all the way down to 0.9 in 2017, and he recorded his highest percentage of first-pitch strikes last year, a whopping 68.6 percent, which ranked second behind Clayton Kershaw for all pitchers with 140-plus innings. Unfortunately, that contact- and zone-based game plan has bitten Tomlin back, leaving him with a career 68.4 left-on-base percentage and 1.54 HR/9. Pitching in front of one of the league's best defenses has worked enough that the 33-year-old should at least be in the running for a rotation spot next year, but he could face competition from Mike Clevinger, who boasts more upside, among others. Don't pay for a full season of starting, especially since he wouldn't stand out as a reliever.

In 2015, Tomlin posted a 3.02 ERA despite a 1.8 HR/9 over 66 innings. That was possibly due to the fact he stranded 90 percent of his baserunners and was very stingy with walks. His home run rate actually got worse in 2016 and his strand rate went down to 71 percent, so his ERA spiked to 4.40. All of this was despite the fact he had the highest groundball rate of his career. The high homer rate, low walk rate and the fact his strikeout rate has declined for three straight seasons makes one wonder if Tomlin is the long lost son of former pitcher Dave Bush. The Indians may entrust him with a rotation spot to begin 2017, but he's hardly a lock to keep the job all season if his extreme long-ball tendencies persist.

Tomlin failed to lock down a spot in the starting rotation in the spring after battling some shoulder soreness and was sent to Triple-A Colombus to start the season. He immediately hit the DL and required a cleanup procedure on his shoulder and was sidelined until the middle of July. Tomlin made a couple of starts at Triple-A after wrapping up his rehab before being recalled by the Indians in mid-August to fill a vacancy in the starting rotation. He performed very well in a 10-start stretch for the Indians, posting a 3.02 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in 65.2 innings while exhibiting pinpoint control (1.1 BB/9) and striking out 57 batters. The only cause for concern was an alarming 13 homers allowed and an unsustainable .199 BABIP mark. Tomlin's had some longball issues in the past, and his flyball tendencies won't be able to leverage an improved infield defense, but he will enter camp with a chance at landing a spot at the back end of the Cleveland rotation.

The same two issues have plagued Tomlin throughout his career and unsurprisingly, they are intertwined: home runs and working with runners on. Of his 70 home runs, 35 have come with runners on despite 418 fewer batters faced. His 1.4 HR/9 and 66 percent LOB rate suggest he has earned quite a bit of his career 4.89 ERA. At 30 years old, it’s hard to envision a severe turnaround coming any time soon. This is why the excitement is always tamped down with righties sitting 88-90 mph on the gun. Even if they are able to deceive their way to some big minor league numbers, it always catches up in the majors, especially if they don’t have impeccable control of their low-90s fastball. Tomlin is best used as a 26th-man type who shuttles between Triple-A and the majors when the team needs some starts filled due to injury or a doubleheader. He could reasonably be the long man in a bullpen, but regardless of whether he’s the 25th or 26th man, he doesn’t carry much fantasy value.

Tomlin missed most of the season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but did make it back for some rehab starts and a brief appearance with the Indians in September. He has heavily relied on pinpoint control and a strong defense behind him in the past, so he can't really afford to have left any of his velocity on the operating table. Tomlin has never carried an xFIP below 4.00 during his time in the big leagues, nor as he pushed his strikeout rate above 5.3 K/9 in any one campaign. He will enter spring training with a chance to earn a spot at the back end of the Indians' rotation, but there is little reason to get excited if he manages to secure a job.

Tomlin was surprisingly effective for the Indians after opening the season as the team's fifth starter, winning 12 games to go along with a 4.25 ERA and a sparkling 1.077 WHIP thanks to a league-leading 1.14 BB/9IP. His excellent control helped him survive a low strikeout rate (4.84 K/9IP) and his long-ball tendencies (24 allowed in his 26 starts) are the only real blemishes. Tomlin experienced elbow soreness that cut his season short in September, but is expected to be ready for the start of spring training. He'll start the season as the team's No. 3 or No. 4 starter, but it will take a lot of things to break right if he's going to have a repeat performance.

Tomlin made a dozen serviceable starts for the Indians after a midseason callup but continued to struggle with the long ball, allowing 10 homers in just 73 innings. It's been an issue in his minor league career as well, and his low strikeout rate (5.3 K/9IP) means a lot of balls are being put in play against him. He'll battle for a rotation spot again this spring.